WASHINGTON — A potential shakeup to the Democratic presidential nominating process could give South Carolina a rare chance to move up the party’s primary calendar and boost its standing with future White House candidates.
But first, the state’s Democratic leaders want to make sure it doesn’t drop out of the group of early primary states altogether.
Top South Carolina Democrats say that they are taking nothing for granted ahead of a key Democratic National Committee meeting this month, one that will assess whether the party’s much scrutinized presidential primary schedule requires significant changes — including the possibility of outright removing some states’ early status.
Guaranteeing South Carolina’s place as one of the first four or five nominating contests is the first and only priority, they say, especially amid an influx of states trying to increase their influence in the presidential nomination process by claiming a place on the early calendar.
“There’s no presumption of success or no presumption of failure on our part,” said Trav Robertson, chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party. “We think we have a great story to tell, and we think our [2020 primary] election went off flawlessly.”
Robertson declined to say whether the state would try to move up the primary calendar, saying it would be “extremely presumptuous” and “downright rude” to begin jockeying for position before the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee begins meeting June 22 in Washington, D.C.
During that meeting, Democratic officials from states applying to be part of the early nominating contests will give presentations to committee members, outlining the reasons they deserve inclusion.
The committee will then make its recommendation about the new primary calendar in August, before the full DNC considers its proposal in September.
“The fact is other states are going to make a big play for this, and we have to put our best foot forward,” said Carol Fowler, a DNC member from South Carolina who serves on the Rules and Bylaws Committee. “We have to remind people of why South Carolina is a good choice.”
The Rules and Bylaws committee voted earlier this year to review its nomination process and consider adding a fifth early state to the primary, an increase of one from the usual four states allowed to hold their nominating contests before all other states. (DNC officials emphasize that the committee could still choose to keep the list of early states to just four.)
Two fellow Southern states, Georgia and Texas, have applied to be included among the selected group of early contests, according to DNC officials. If either is chosen by the committee, they could potentially threaten South Carolina’s place on the calendar, especially if members decide only one Southern state should be allowed to go early.
“I think we have a good shot at it,” Fowler said. “But it’s not by any means a done deal. I don’t think anyone’s position is a done deal.”
History
But neutral observers consider such a scenario unlikely, citing the state’s penchant in recent election cycles for picking the party’s eventual nominee and its massively influential role in the 2020 presidential primary.
Then-candidate Joe Biden revived his flagging candidacy with a commanding win in the state, finishing first after a dismal fourth- and fifth-place showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively. (He finished a distant second to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in Nevada.)
The victory persuaded a handful of opponents, including Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, to exit the race and endorse his candidacy, setting the stage for a sweep of wins during the following Super Tuesday that effectively made him an uncatchable front-runner in the race.
The state’s Democratic voters also backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 over Sanders and Barack Obama over Clinton in 2008, key victories that helped eventually propel both candidates to the party’s presidential nomination.
“There is a significant story to tell,” Robertson said. “Plus, South Carolina has been very successful in not only determining the eventual nominee, but the president of the United States of America during the last several nominating processes.”
Even top DNC officials involved in the selection process readily concede the state’s track record, and the way it managed its primary four years ago, is impressive.
“I would say that in the Rules and Bylaws Committee, and in the DNC generally, there’s a lot of good feeling about how South Carolina conducted its process four years ago,” said Jim Roosevelt, a DNC member from Massachusetts and co-chair of the RBC. “A lot of feeling that it’s a representative state of an important region and an important mix of demographics.”
Iowa
Speculation has instead focused on Iowa, whose caucuses in 2020 — marked by long reporting delays and technological breakdowns — were widely considered a disaster.
The RBC has conducted a series of listening sessions this year about the early states included in the nominating process, and members acknowledge that many who have spoken to the committee have focused their comments about the state that traditionally goes first in the presidential primary.
“A fair number of people who come forward to us want to talk about the role of Iowa,” Roosevelt said. “We’re looking at the whole and Iowa is just part of it.”
Roosevelt and other DNC members emphasize that they still have not made a decision about whether Iowa or any state will retain its place. And even if the DNC did remove the state, it would still need to determine the new calendar for the nominating process — something Fowler says the committee has not yet even begun to consider.
“It is still unclear to me how much the members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee want to shake up the whole process,” Fowler said. “That is why everybody still doesn’t have a notion whether the order of the states is going to change, because that has not been a focus of the discussion.”
Still, if Iowa does lose its place, it could trigger a new order of states. And South Carolina Democrats concede that if given the chance to move up in the process, the state might not pass up the opportunity.
“There’s going to be some shuffling around of how to fit the states into the month of February,” Fowler said. “And I am certain that if a state needed to go earlier than it has in the past, South Carolina would eagerly volunteer.”
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