It’s true that Carl Marlinga doesn’t have name recognition. Despite running for a hugely competitive seat, in a district where he lives and has been a judge for 30 years, not a single one of his yard signs is visible on a day spent following campaigners in Sterling Heights, Michigan. And when you ask him why he isn’t polling as well as his opponent, John James – the Trump-backed candidate who lost two recent campaigns for US Senate and doesn’t even live in the district – Marlinga says it himself.
“It’s name recognition, that’s what my pollsters are telling me,” Marlinga replies at a packed campaign event on an inconsiderately cold October day.
“Judges are fairly invisible, and that’s OK: as judges, we don’t seek to be individuals, we seek to represent the rule of law,” Marlinga says. The only problem is that now he’s running for office in Michigan’s 10th, a newly drawn congressional district that includes Macomb, a place that has been named “swing county, swing state”. Here, voters flip, flop and often pick their candidate on the day. And for the last three elections, it was Trump specifically who won their hearts.
But out on the doorstep, it seems Marlinga might just have an opportunity to win people over – even without them knowing his name.
“I don’t know how I’m going to vote. But I know I don’t support Tudor Dixon,” says Stephanie House, a 42-year-old loan officer talking through a screen door at her house in Sterling Heights when campaigners knock. She’s referring to the staunchly anti-choice Republican candidate for governor, who has said she believes in no exceptions for abortion, just like James, Marlinga’s opponent. “I usually decide on the day, but it’s the abortion issue that’s going to push it for me, straight down the ticket,” says House.
This November, Michiganders will have the chance to protect abortion rights in the state constitution, which could benefit Democrat and pro-choice candidates voters down ballot, experts say.
“It should benefit Democrats because of the supreme court decision. Public opinion has moved leftward on the issue [of abortion], and the pro-choice side is more motivated,” explains Matthew Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University.
The abortion issue is not just swinging voters toward Democrats, though. Another couple, Melody and Ed Bristow, will be voting for James because they want more abortion restrictions, even though they don’t know who John James is yet. “We’ll just vote for the Republican, whoever it is that’s pro-life,” they say.
“I like John James. He’s very charismatic. He’s very smart. I’ve voted for John in the past, and I’ve endorsed [him],” says the mayor of Sterling Heights, Michael Taylor. “But I’m disappointed that he isn’t using his voice to push back on the extremes in the Republican party, which I really think are an existential threat to our way of life.”
Taylor, 39, admits that James seems more popular than Marlinga, especially in Sterling Heights. Trump has been out campaigning with James, something likely to chime with voters here, and James is on TV “what seems like every day”, according to Taylor. Meanwhile he says, he’s not sure he’s even seen an ad from Marlinga’s campaign.
That makes sense: James’s campaign has attracted huge funding and with James denying the results of his own Senate loss in 2020, he appeals to Trump’s ‘big lie’, and those who still argue, baselessly, that Trump won in 2020.
But, crucially, Taylor thinks that for those people whose vote swings on abortion, they won’t see this as a popularity contest, just a simple test of right versus wrong.
“People here feel very strongly about the abortion issue, that it should be a woman’s right to choose,” says Taylor. He says inflation and abortion seem to be the top issues in this district, and adds: “To me, abortion is far more important than inflation. The abortion issue is something that is going to be around forever … There’s inflation all over the world, the president can’t wave a magic wand and make it go away. Inflation goes up and down.”
“National forecasters are giving this race to the Republicans too quickly,” says Jeff Timmer, a member of the Lincoln Project, and a former GOP strategist for more than 30 years. Referencing a recent Detroit News poll that gave James an eight-point lead over Marlinga, he adds:
“That same poll put [Gretchen] Whitmer up like 23 points. If Whitmer is winning that district by double digits, John James is not going to be a congressman,” says Timmer.
Marlinga’s traditional approach could also benefit him in this race. He is old-school. He doesn’t use soundbites and he gives straight answers, even when disadvantageous to him or his campaign, because he is motivated by a deep sense of responsibility. “Aren’t you happy to be out of all that?” his wife had joked, while the two watched the news unfurl from the January 6 insurrection on TV. “I’m sorry to tell you but my reaction is a little bit different,” he replied. “Aristotle once said that if good people do not get involved in politics, their punishment is to be governed by bad people.” He decided to run.
In a state where Republicans have equivocated on their abortion messaging – unsure of how it will chime with voters – Marlinga could stand out because he is very easy to read.
“Voters see this issue in terms of right and wrong. They see criminalizing abortion as wrong. A supermajority of voters think that way, even in Macomb. And there’s an automatic association, that Republicans are anti-abortion and Democrats are pro-abortion rights,” says Timmer.
“The abortion issue should benefit Democrats,” says Grossmann.
But doesn’t that also mean people might try to have it both ways – protecting abortion specifically in the referendum, and then voting for John James if they prefer him on the economy?
Taylor, the mayor of Sterling, thinks not.
“I don’t think there’s any person out there, that’s gonna say my most important issue is abortion, but I’m still going to vote for John James.”
