Back for just its second edition on Saturday, a lot is still unknown about Milan-San Remo Women. The men's race, which has been going for 116 years, is still incredibly unpredictable, so imagine how much harder it is to forecast the version we've only seen one edition of to date.
Last year's inaugural San Remo finished in a sprint, won by Lorena Wiebes (SD Worx-Protime) after some attacks on the Poggio cut down the lead group, but didn't quite make things hard enough to drop Wiebes. Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team ADQ) got away in the finale, but with Wiebes' teammate Lotte Kopecky still in the chasing group, the Belgian was able to close her down and set up the sprint.
There was some thought last year and going into this weekend's race, too, that there may have been a touch of conservatism, as in riders not quite going full-out on climbs they'd never raced on before. That neatly led onto the idea that this year's race might be different, with teams and riders emboldened to do more, go earlier, and even take some inspiration from the men's race and attack on the Cipressa - previously a very unusual tactic.
Up until Friday morning, that certainly seemed like the way the race could go. Longo Borghini was laying out her plans to race aggressively, rival sports directors had an eye on UAE Team ADQ as the most dangerous team, the presence of punchier riders like Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney (Canyon-SRAM zondacrypto), Marianne Vos (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Kopecky eaning things towards a more attacking race.
"If the main punchy riders are there, and want to try something really aggressive, I think it can be more challenging for fast riders or sprinters who want to fight for the race," Movistar sports director Jorge Sanz told Cyclingnews earlier in the week. "So I think we can have another opportunity to see a different final."
But over the course of Friday, that idea has taken something of a blow. Longo Borghini was ruled out with illness in the morning, and then Marianne Vos also had to return home for family reasons. The possible biggest aggressor is out, as is the rider beaten by Wiebes in the sprint last year, who would surely have been trying to avoid that again.
What's more, as race day has come closer, the weather forecast has become clearer, and it's not looking good for the opportunists. Current predictions are for a moderate headwind over the final climbs, which will make attacks harder, and make keeping a bigger group together easier.
"With full headwind, we would have to take it pretty conservative and probably wait, wait, wait, but if it's a tailwind, something can happen already on the Cipressa," Canyon-SRAM zondacrypto DS Rolf Aldag said. "If it's full headwind and the peloton are stuck with 20kph wind, then usually you go nowhere, and a bigger group is expected."
And if a bigger group gets to the finish, and Wiebes is in it, it seems practically impossible to beat her: such is her prowess in fast finishes, even in the toughest of races.
Who can make the race harder?
The preferable scenario for the rest of the peloton, then, is to force a more selective race – either to drop Wiebes, or at least to isolate her. There is a scenario where Wiebes makes it off the Poggio but loses out to some last-minute moves, if she is alone in the lead group.
"I think she's the main contender but it depends a lot how many riders SD Worx can bring to the final," Sanz said. "Because if she's alone, for sure other teams will have more riders and she cannot answer all the riders if they're attacking in the last three kilometres. For me she is the main contender, but it depends a lot on who from the team is there."
With Longo Borghini out and Demi Vollering (FDJ United-SUEZ) not racing, Niewiadoma-Phinney stands out as one of the top candidates to push attacks earlier, perhaps along with Puck Pieterse (Fenix-Premier Tech) and Kim Le Court (AG Insurance-Soudal).But teams will need buy-in from a lot of riders – teammates and rivals alike – to make any attacks work, as it's so hard to make the Cipressa and Poggio hard.
Speaking earlier in the week, Sanz picked UAE Team ADQ as clear threats to make things hard as early as the Cipressa. His comments came before Longo Borghini's withdrawal, and that throws an obvious complication into that plan. But his points on the teams cohesion and strategic strength still stands, and they could unite behind a different leader.
"I'm expecting a lot from UAE. They showed in the last races that if they are all good and everything is going super. I think they can do a really hard race from the Cipressa in order to make problems for the faster riders," Sanz said.
"Let's see if they want to make it really, really hard on the Cipressa. If it's really hard on the Cipressa, on the Poggio it's easier to make damage there, so let's see how UAE are coming. They are showing that they are one of the two, three strongest teams at the moment.
Even before Longo Borghini dropped out, Sanz was clear that the team do have more options than her, with Karlijn Swinkels stepping up to win Trofeo Alfredo Binda, though she won't be at San Remo. Instead, Silvia Persico, Eleonora Gasparrini, Dominika Włodarczyk and even Mavi García are all threats. UAE aren't bringing a pure sprinter, so it would make sense to stick to a more attacking plan.
"It's not only Longo Borghini. In Binda we've seen how they performed, how they did a really, really aggressive plan and it was working. Let's see what team they will bring to this race," he said.
"Also SD Worx, Canyon... It's a good team for Kasia and knowing her she will do super in both climbs. I think it will be interesting and a maybe different final than last year."
Canyon-SRAM zondacrypto certainly know that Niewiadoma-Phinney, already second in two big Classics so far this year, will be a favourite for a more selective race, but they're also trying to cover all bases.
"Of course, we always love to ride on the offensive and aggressively, and that's probably what we would jointly do with other teams that we believe would have the same theory, and not really wait for the sprint," Aldag said.
"But, Chiara already won this year, so there are for sure two focuses: Kasia, if we can do something on the climbs, and if it's going to be a sprint, then it will be a chance for Chiara."
Advantage Wiebes
As we've already said, though, if it is a sprint, it is exceedingly hard to look past Wiebes and SD Worx.
So what are teams that aren't SD Worx-Protime going to do? You might think they should throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, if they think they'd be beaten in the sprint anyway, but actually directors are likely to tell their riders to sit back and see what happens. In a race like Milan-San Remo, most riders and teams probably would rather wait and finish seventh than attack, get caught and finish 37th.
"The most important thing in this race is firstly positioning in order to be more efficient with the efforts," Sanz said. "Once you are in a good position, [it's about] trying to follow because these are not super steep slopes so it's to follow, follow, follow and be there in the last downhill and don't chase right after and don't take any risks, just be there.
"In our case, I think we have to super smart to wait for a possible sprint and fight for the race from there."
For Movistar, who are without their more climbing attacker Liane Lippert as she's focusing on other goals, the ceiling of their ambitions will probably be trying to make it in a group that sprints for the win, with Cat Ferguson and Arlenis Sierra their options. Ferguson, much talked up before last year's race, had a crash that limited her to 18th, whilst Sierra is taking on her first San Remo after taking maternity leave in 2025.
"Cat will be here, also Arlenis, as our main chances to fight for the race. But I think we are a second line team at this race, so we have to be super awake and aware about what can happen and use the movements of other teams who are making the race," Sanz said. "We have to be more waiting and watching out to everything that is happening."
Could there be a psychological element to try and play with their rivals, trying to capitalise on the possibility of tension between Kopecky and Wiebes, for example? SD Worx's tactics aren't always water-tight and they've done some odd things in the past
"I think the leader will be Wiebes, because if they start to open other options... No, if Wiebes is in the main group, it has to be all in for her, I think," Sanz said. "If I was SD Worx, I'd do that."
So would probably any DS you asked, but let's see if that is the message that comes from the SD Worx team car on Saturday. The odds seem to be stacking up in Wiebes' favour, so all the team need to do is take advantage: however, women's cycling is rarely quite that simple.
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