In this week’s Friday Fight, a debate series in which two writers make their case on a hotly contested topic, the question is: has Europe’s far-right movement lost momentum? As extremism creeps into Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands, many people feel hope about the British Labour Party’s huge victory in the UK and France’s shock election result where a coalition of left parties beat back a far-right surge. But what does this actually mean for the continent?
In the affirmative corner we have freelance journalist Caitlin Powell. Arguing in the negative is columnist Benjamin Clark.
Don’t get me wrong — I was as glad as anyone that the National Rally came an unexpected third in France’s snap parliamentary elections. There was nothing quite so sweet as seeing the aghast looks on those French fascists’ faces as the exit polls dropped. Magnifique!
And it’s equally deserved that the past-use-by Tories faced a historic rout in the UK, and the hard-right Reform party came up with fewer seats than many polls were initially predicting.
And there are some positive trends under the hood of these victories. Young voters, for instance, did not drift significantly rightward, as some prematurely claimed.
But we mustn’t get ahead of ourselves. Not only will the far right regroup for another offensive; their recent progress places them favourably to storm the gates of power in three to five years’ time. The task for the left — and indeed, anyone who values pluralism and common decency — will only be tougher next time around.
Let’s start with the UK. Labour’s vote share across the country was 34%, compared to the Tories’ dismal 24%. But the hard-right Reform party took 14%. So if the right were united and Reform’s voters had flocked to the Tories instead, they would have had a higher vote share than Labour. Labour’s victory hardly represented a leftward lurch, but the collapse of an exhausted and fragmented right. More 2019 Tory voters dropped dead than switched to Labour.
Two caveats: firstly, only around two-thirds of Reform’s voters would have chosen the Tories if Reform wasn’t an option. Secondly, in Britain’s first-past-the-post system, overall vote share isn’t as important as whether your votes are strategically clustered. On this measure, analysis suggests Reform evaporating would only have delivered approximately 40 additional seats to the Tories –– handy, but nowhere near enough to bridge the gap with Labour. The Tories also need to address the core reason voters jumped ship –– a (correct) perception of incompetence.
Nonetheless, if the right were to unite as a single force under a more confidence-inspiring leader, as some senior figures in both parties are suggesting, it could be much more potent in five years’ time. Fighting on multiple fronts spread the Tories’ resources thin this year. But absent a credible threat on its right, it could campaign more strategically to gain votes and lump them together next time. And there are clearly sympathetic voters out there, given how many cast their ballots for conservative options.
Across the Channel, the French situation is perhaps even more perilous. The far-right National Rally (RN) won the most votes and the most seats it ever has. It has the tentative support of the traditional centre-right Republicans, whose leader Éric Ciotti narrowly survived a coup attempt by moderates in the party after suggesting an alliance with the RN. Meanwhile, the media and business establishment are cozying up to them and normalising their extreme agenda. The wind is still well and truly in their sails.
Furthermore, as journalist Olly Haynes said of RN: “The 2027 presidential election […] operates using a proportional system which is much more favourable to them”. There is a higher threshold for eliminating candidates after the first round in presidential elections (just the top two candidates proceed) compared to parliamentary ones, advantaging the parties with the highest vote share — namely, RN.
Cobbling together a united “republican front” against RN might also be harder in a presidential race than in varied local races. Given Macronists are losing popularity by the minute, and the leftist party France Unbowed is the largest party in the New Popular Front (NPF, the left-wing coalition), their leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is likely to stand for president again. If he comes in second and must face off against Le Pen, will centrists reliably hold their nose and vote for him to beat back the far right?
Possibly not. In this month’s elections, 70% of first-round voters for the NFP voted for Macronist candidates in the second round where they were better placed to defeat RN, showing pragmatist discipline. But only 54% of Macronists returned the favour — only 46% where the left candidate was from France Unbowed. Many in the French media and political class, including some in Macron’s own camp, are busy painting Mélenchon as a more extreme outlier than the normalised Le Pen.
Fresh from their shock success, the NPF — a barely collegiate marriage of desperation — faces a steep challenge to stay united and present a credible and popular alternative to RN rule. Then they will need to choose and unify around a solid candidate for 2027, one who can persuade moderate fence-sitters.
All of this will occur against the backdrop of the far right having its most seats ever in the European Parliament after recent election successes.
DING! DING! DING! CRIKEY EDITORS DECLARE CLARK HAS OFFICIALLY PASSED HIS ALLOCATED WORD COUNT!
Viktor Orbán is cementing his role as a key influencer of the global conservative movement and a key go-between with Putin’s Russia. Giorgia Meloni may be somewhat unpopular domestically in Italy, but she is increasingly powerful within European institutions. And this is all before a likely second Trump term.
The next major test will be the German election due next year, where Olaf Scholz’s centre-left coalition government is set for a shellacking. If the far-right Alternative for Germany party disproportionately gains, it could test the Christian Democratic Union’s resolve to refuse a coalition with them. The far right returning to German government for the first time since WWII is a truly bleak proposition.
Any setbacks for the far right must be savoured. But these were more bruises than knockout blows.
Is the far-right surge in Europe as dangerous as reported? Who do you think won the debate? Let us know your thoughts by writing to letters@crikey.com.au. Please include your full name to be considered for publication. We reserve the right to edit for length and clarity.
