Early data does not show any drop in private rental properties, despite the Scottish Government’s rent freeze.
Minister for Tenants’ Rights Patrick Harvie said administrative figures showed a small increase in private rented accommodation, but the government is working on producing higher-quality data.
Earlier this month, the Scottish Parliament backed a rent cap of 3% for private tenants from April.
In October last year, legislation was introduced to temporarily freeze rent increases for private and social tenants, and for student accommodation with the cap set at 0% from 6 September until at least 31 March.
At Holyrood’s Local Government Committee, MSPs approved a minor amendment to regulations which facilitated the changes.
Scottish Conservative MSP Miles Briggs asked Harvie about the impact of the policies on private landlord registration data.
Greens MSP Harvie said this data was merely administrative and “doesn’t provide the rich granularity of data that all stakeholders recognise is necessary”.
Longer-term reform is needed to provide this kind of data, he said, adding: “While we do have that, admittedly limited, source of information through the landlord registration scheme, I think it shows no decrease as yet and perhaps a slight increase - only very marginal - in the number of registered properties since before the emergency measures come into force.”
The minister accepted there would be a time lag between landlords deciding to drop out of the sector and their properties being removed from the market.
Meanwhile, lettings and estate agency DJ Alexander has claimed that revenue from property taxes in Scotland has collapsed this year.
Its analysis of the latest statistics suggested that income from the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) on residential sales fell 36.1% at the start of the year, with the first two months down £44.4m, compared to the previous two months.
The largest fall occurred among people buying a home for themselves, which saw a 44% drop - down £39.6m - when comparing the first two months of this year with the last two of 2022.
Revenue from second home buyers, landlords, and property investors - who pay a 6% premium on top of standard LBTT - fell by £5m, or just over 15%.
Total revenue from both residential sales and non-residential sales was 37.1% down in the first two months of this year, falling from £166.8m to £104.9m.
David Alexander, chief executive officer of DJ Alexander Scotland, commented: “It is clear that the property boom has started to come to an end with its consequent impact on revenues for the Scottish Government.
“It is highly likely that this reduction will persist throughout this year and may even fall further depending on how well the housing market holds up given the cost-of-living situation, utility costs, and the continued impact of high inflation.”
He continued: “Of course these figures could simply be a seasonal blip and they may also be a response to increased caution caused by recent financial uncertainty, but they could be a sign of a greater shift in the market.
“If this represented a more permanent fall in revenue from property taxes then the Scottish Government will face a shortfall in its projected earnings for the coming year.”
For the 2022-23 financial year, it should reach the target of £797m revenue from residential and non-residential sales - with the former making up the bulk of this income.
However, it has forecast revenue of £821m for 2023-24, then £849m for 24-25, rising to £987m by 2027-28, which will be almost double the figure for 2020-21; which was £517m.
Alexander added: “It is clear that the Scottish Government, like all governments, has long regarded the homebuyer and the property investor as a cash cow.
“But with just £50.9m raised in February - which is the lowest monthly figure since May 2021 - and the likelihood of a potential shortfall in revenues this coming year of around £200m, it is clear that this source of income may be drying up.”
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