Kyler Murray is a No. 1 overall pick the Cardinals got right.
He was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. He was a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback by Year 3. He took the Cardinals to their first playoff game in six seasons in 2021, when he was the leading candidate for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award through the first half of the season. He signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract in 2022, making him the second-highest paid quarterback in the league.
And when Murray comes to Chicago to face the 5-9 Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field, the Cardinals will be 41⁄2-point underdogs, because even after finding the right guy, the Cardinals are 3-11 this season and have lost 22 of their last 27 games. In fact, their 7-24 record since the beginning of last season is worse than the Bears’ record in two seasons under Matt Eberflus (8-23) that has disgruntled Bears fans clamoring for change.
Therein lies a cautionary tale for Bears fans looking to the possible No. 1 overall pick as the team’s long-awaited quarterback salvation. A lot of other factors have to be in place just to become a consistent playoff participant, let alone win the Super Bowl.
Even if you pick the right guy, he has to have staying power. Murray hasn’t been the same dynamic quarterback since returning from a torn ACL. He has a new offensive coordinator, with former Vikings and Browns assistant Drew Petzing under head coach Jonathan Gannon replacing Kliff Kingsbury. And Murray no longer has DeAndre Hopkins as his security blanket. In a ranking of top quarterbacks by NFL.com prior to last week, Murray was 20th. (Justin Fields was 16th, one spot ahead of the Browns’ Joe Flacco.)
A rookie quarterback such as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye would join a Bears team with the arrow pointing up in 2024. The Bears’ defense is developing a young core of playmakers. The Bears have the makings of a quality offensive line. And they have established weapons in wide receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet.
But you still have to get the right guy, and the record shows that with a quarterback in the top-3 picks in the draft, more can wrong than can go right. Arguably, only the Bengals’ Joe Burrow — the No. 1 overall pick in 2020 — has met expectations among the 15 quarterbacks drafted in the top-3 in the last 10 years.
The others are mostly unproven, still developing, failed or elsewhere: The No. 1 picks — Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Jameis Winston. The No. 2 picks — C.J. Stroud, Zach Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota. And the No. 3 picks — Trey Lance, Sam Darnold and Blake Bortles.
So while hope is heartening, history is daunting. Three years ago the Bears looked like they had found their Kyler Murray. If they’re drafting a quarterback this time around, they’ll need to do better than that.
2. It’s a sign of modern times that Justin Fields has achieved “cult-like” status — and that’s a bad thing. The polarity of the Fields debate has spawned an oddly extreme band of loyalists that, like any cult, excuses his flaws and failures, always paints him as the victim and blames the media when confronted with negative evidence. It’s kind of bizarre, actually, in an NFL context.
The current answer to the is-it-Fields-or-Luke Getsy conundrum is obvious: It’s both. Fields might succeed in a better offense, but he still needs a lot of things to be right.
The good news: Fields will be a starter in the NFL in 2024 — perhaps with the Bears under a new coordinator; perhaps with another team. Either way, he’ll likely get his chance to prove the problem was the offense and not the quarterback. Until then, the extremes on both sides of this often mindless debate are better ignored. It’s suffocating.
3. Browns quarterback Joe Flacco completed 11 of 13 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Bears — a 144.4 passer rating. That’s the most passing yards in the fourth quarter in the NFL this season. The previous best probably doesn’t sit well with some Bears fans, either — 190 yards by (gulp!) Texans rookie C.J. Stroud against the Jaguars in Week 3.
The Browns, by the way, were the only team in the NFL with a lower fourth-quarter passer rating (62.0) than the Bears (49.0) this season coming into that game. Yikes!
4. Red Flag Dept.: The Bears’ Montez Sweat-fueled improvement on defense is being undercut by fourth-quarter collapses that suggest the Bears’ defense has as much of an issue finishing as the offense.
Usually when good defenses lose the mental-toughness battle of wills in the fourth quarter, it’s a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers doing the damage. The Bears’ last two collapses have come against Jared Goff and 38-year-old Joe Flacco — both accomplished quarterbacks, but not Brady or Rodgers.
It might be that while the Bears have the right pieces for an elite defense, something is still missing.
5. After holding the Browns to a 29 rushing yards on 18 carries, the Bears are leading the NFL in rushing defense (79.8 yards per game).
Bears general manager Ryan Poles gets the credit. With defensive tackle Andrew Billings the key addition, the Bears have improved from 31st to first in rushing defense — obviously the biggest jump in the NFL.
Last year, the Steelers had the most improved rushing defense in the league — going from 32nd and last to ninth with (in part) the addition of defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, who was Poles’ first choice to play the 3-technique position in Matt Eberflus’ defense.
6. Eberflus dropping 6-3, 309-pound tackle Justin Jones into coverage on third-and-15 was reminiscent of Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers dropping 6-2, 338-pound nose tackle B.J. Raji into coverage in a key moment in the NFC Championship Game in 2011.
It worked for the Packers against Bears back-up Caleb Hanie, who had yet to start in the NFL. Hanie tried to beat cornerback Sam Shields’ zone blitz with a quick throw, but he didn’t see Raji, who intercepted the pass for Matt Forte and returned it 18 yards for a touchdown to give the Packers a 21-7 lead with 6:04 left in the fourth quarter.
The Bears weren’t as successful against the 38-year-old Flacco, who was in his 198th career start. Flacco found tight end David Njoku behind Jones for a 34-yard gain that set up Dustin Hopkins’ winning field goal.
Experience makes a big difference.
“Tough to see a d-llneman from the other side of the field coming over,” Hanie recalled in 2019. “And that was a new [offensive] play we had installed for that week that I don’t think I had run one time. So my reaction [to the Packers’ blitz] was to get the ball to Matt Forte.
“Devin Hester was wide open across the middle. With more experience my reaction may have been to have a wider view of the field that [I] might have thrown in a different place. You don’t get focused in on, ‘OK, here’s the blitz, here’s my hot guy. He’s the guys to throw to.”
7. Quick Hits: The Bears have converted 29 of 45 plays (64.4%) with one yard to go — 23rd in the NFL. … The defense has allowed 20 of 35 conversions (57.1%) with one-yard to go — third best in the NFL. … The Browns had two receivers with 100 or more yards (Amari Cooper with 109; Njoku with 104) for the first time since 2013. … The Bears outscored the Browns 10-0 in the third quarter — they’ve outscored opponents 39-0 in the third quarter in the past five games after getting outscored 62-25 in the first nine.
8. Bobby Slowik Watch — The Texans’ offensive coordinator found a way to win without rookie C.J. Stroud on Sunday. With Stroud out with a concussion, Case Keenum rallied the Texans to a 19-16 overtime victory against the Titans.
After a slow start, Keenum was at his best in the fourth quarter and overtime — completing 8 of 13 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown pass to Noah Brown for a 113.9 passer rating.
With Stroud and Keenum, the Texans are sixth in the NFL in passer rating (97.4) — and second in fourth-quarter passer rating (101.4).
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Place-kicker Eddy Pineiro was 3 for 3 on field-goal attempts — including a 23-yarder as time expired to give the Panthers a 9-7 victory over the Falcons. Pineiro has scored 18 of the Panthers’ 24 points in their two victories this season.
10. Bear-ometer: 7-10 — vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (W); at Packers (L).
