A mixed bag of results was witnessed in nine Lok Sabha constituencies in the 2009 and 2014 polls where the three lead parties of their respective fronts - DMK, AIADMK and BJP are contesting now.
In 2009, the ruling DMK won in six while the AIADMK-headed front, three. The former bagged North Chennai, Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Namakkal, Nilgiris and Perambalur. The AIADMK captured South Chennai and Pollachi and its ally Communist Party of India (CPI-Marxist), Coimbatore.
Five years later, the AIADMK swept all the nine seats. The election results of 2019 were not considered, as it had an electoral understanding with the BJP.
In 2009, the DMK’s front included the Congress, Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK). The AIADMK –led coalition comprised the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the CPI and the CPI-M. The BJP had tie-ups with many unrecognised parties.
In 2014, the AIADMK, which was the ruling party in the State then, and the Congress contested independently while the DMK had allies such as the Puthiya Tamilagam and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK), in addition to the VCK and the IUML. The BJP’s partners were PMK, MDMK and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Katchi (DMDK). Coincidentally, in Vellore and Perambalur, A.C. Shanmugam and T. R.Paarivendhar, who are now contesting on the BJP symbol, did an identical act 10 years ago too.
A comparison of the performance of the three parties in the two elections reveals that in 2014, the DMK uniformly suffered an erosion in its vote base as against its showing in 2009. Even in Chennai, a traditional stronghold of the party, both in North and South Chennai seats, the Dravidian major had polled about 10 percentage points lower than what it did previously. The AIADMK, which had generally improved its performance, had however seen a moderate rise in its vote share where the BJP and its allies did well.
This can be illustrated by the performances of the AIADMK and the BJP in a couple of constituencies. In South Chennai, the AIADMK’s vote share in 2014 went down by about two per cents compared to 2009, even though it emerged as the winner. At the same time, the BJP, supported by the DMDK, PMK and the MDMK, had polled nearly 23.8%. Likewise, Pollachi, which was bagged by the AIADMK both in 2009 and 2014, saw the party being able to record a modest rise of about 1.5 percentage points, as the BJP, which was represented by E.R.Easwaran of the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK), had secured a vote share of about 27%. In contrast, In Tiruvannamalai and Namakkal where the AIADMK registered an increase in vote share by about 12.5% and 21% respectively, the BJP’s 2014 allies, PMK and DMDK netted around 14.8% and 13.9% of the votes polled. An inference can be made that if the fray did not have strong non-DMK and non-AIADMK nominees - to cite a few examples - say in South Chennai and Pollachi, the vote share of the AIADMK would have been higher.
