The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is now a fait accompli. Last month, Ethiopia began filling an enormous reservoir behind the $4.5 billion hydroelectric project, which promises to make the country an energy powerhouse. The megadam will bring cheap electricity to millions of households, power Ethiopia’s developing industrial sector, and enable the government to earn much-needed foreign exchange by exporting electricity to neighboring countries. The two countries that lie downstream from Ethiopia on the Nile River, Sudan and Egypt, could also benefit from the dam through access to power, improved flood control, and more efficient water storage that reduces the volume of Nile water lost to evaporation.
But ever since Ethiopia began construction in 2011, the dam has strained relations in the Nile River basin. Egypt considers the GERD an existential threat: the country depends on the Nile for nearly all of its fresh water and has enjoyed hegemony over the Nile basin for more than 60 years. A 1959 treaty with Sudan grants Egypt an overwhelming share of the river’s water. Ethiopia wasn’t party to that agreement, but Egypt has opposed any upstream dams that could constrict its water supply—even contemplating the use of military force to halt the GERD’s construction in 2013.
Cairo has softened its position somewhat in recent years and sought to reach a negotiated settlement with Ethiopia, but it continues to regard the dam as a threat to its national interests. Sudan is caught in the middle of this dispute, both literally and figuratively: situated between the two regional powers on the Nile, it is well placed to capture the GERD’s benefits but wants to mitigate the project’s potential negative social and environmental impacts.
