The presidential primary campaign is making its way to Nevada, bringing with it dueling caucuses and primaries that are causing confusion among voters. Despite the uncertainty, the expected results remain clear.
On Tuesday, Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador, will be running in the Republican primary. However, it is important to note that this primary does not count towards the GOP nomination. On the other hand, Donald Trump is the only major candidate participating in Thursday's Republican caucuses, which do count. This split in races has essentially rendered the third state on the GOP calendar as nationally irrelevant.
Haley's campaign has rejected the caucuses, claiming they are unfair and rigged in favor of the former president. They refused to pay the $55,000 fee imposed by the Nevada GOP to participate in the caucuses. Haley's campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, stated that they have not invested any money or energy into Nevada, and their focus remains on her home state of South Carolina and its upcoming primary on February 24th.
Meanwhile, Trump is expected to secure all of Nevada's 26 Republican delegates in Thursday's contest. While he needs to accumulate 1,215 delegates to officially clinch the party's nomination, he could potentially reach that goal by March.
Trump's senior campaign adviser, Chris LaCivita, expressed confusion over Haley's decision not to participate, emphasizing that one should go where the delegates are if the goal is to win the Republican nomination for president.
On the Democratic side, there will be a primary on Tuesday, and President Joe Biden is expected to win easily against author Marianne Williamson and a few lesser-known challengers. Notably, Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota will not be on the ballot.
Although Biden faces no significant peril in the primary, he campaigned in Nevada over the weekend to begin energizing voters for the upcoming crucial swing state election in November.
For Trump's campaign advisers, the primary presents an opportunity to test-drive their general election operation. They view it as a crucial step in their national campaign strategy and emphasize that no one should be forgotten or taken for granted.
The Thursday evening caucuses are anticipated to heavily favor Trump. With his strong grassroots support, he already possesses an advantage in caucus settings compared to primaries. Caucuses require the mobilization of supporters and their physical presence at a designated time.
Nevada's GOP has further tipped the scales in favor of Trump by passing changes that prohibit super PACs from assisting candidates and by preventing Republicans from running in the primary election if they wish to compete in the party-run caucuses.
Nevada's role as an early-state in the presidential primary cycle often goes unnoticed due to its distance from Washington and the prominence of other early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The state's history as an early state only dates back to 2008, when the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid successfully secured it a spot at the top of the primary calendar.
Nevada's transient population and rapid growth also contribute to its overlooked status. Many residents may not be fully acquainted with its relatively recent prominence in the primary process.
This year, however, Nevada has been particularly neglected. With an incumbent president running in the Democratic race, a former president running in the Republican race, and his sole major challenger mostly disregarding the state, Nevada finds itself somewhat overlooked in the primary campaign spotlight.
Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence had initially planned to participate in the Nevada primary before ending their campaigns. Due to the timing of their announcements, their names will still appear on the ballot, alongside an interesting quirk in Nevada law that allows voters to select 'none of these candidates.'
This option of 'none of these candidates' was introduced in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal as a way for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the available choices. While selecting 'none' cannot result in an election victory, it did come in first place in congressional primary contests in 1976 and 1978. It also outperformed both George Bush and Edward Kennedy in Nevada's 1980 presidential primaries.
As the campaign continues to unfold, Nevada remains a key swing state that will play a crucial role in November's general election. Regardless of the primary confusion and overlooked status, candidates must recognize its significance on the political battleground.
