One day before the Iowa caucuses, Nikki Haley addressed an energized crowd at a barbecue restaurant in Ames, just a few miles from Iowa State University. Despite the freezing temperatures, the room was filled to capacity with campaign volunteers, journalists and a few undecided caucus-goers.
“This is truly cold,” Haley said. “But we’re going to keep on going anywhere and everywhere. We’re going to go all the way until the last hour because we know what situation we’re in.”
Haley’s own situation has improved in recent days, as the former South Carolina governor and US ambassador to the UN has gained momentum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. After trailing Florida governor Ron DeSantis for months, the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll showed Haley in second place in Iowa, winning the support of 20% of likely Republican caucus-goers compared to DeSantis’s 16%.
But the poll also underscored the profound challenges that Haley – and any other Republican not named Donald Trump – faces in the quest for the nomination. Trump easily beat all of his opponents in the Iowa poll, capturing the support of 48% of likely caucus-goers. Even if Haley can squeak out a second-place finish in Iowa, the results are unlikely to answer the question that has shaped the entire Republican primary: how can any candidate defeat a former president who remains overwhelmingly popular with the party’s base?
As she made her final pitch to Iowa voters on Sunday, Haley directly called out Trump, warning that his re-election would only bring more “chaos” at an already chaotic time for the nation.
“I think President Trump was the right president at the right time. I agree with a lot of his policies. But rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” Haley said in Ames. “And we can’t be a country in disarray in a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. We won’t survive it.”
Arguing that she was the most electable Republican candidate, Haley pointed to a Wall Street Journal poll released last month, which showed her defeating Joe Biden by 17 points in a head-to-head match-up.
“That’s bigger than the presidency. That’s the House. That’s the Senate. That’s governorships all the way down to school board,” Haley said. “You win by double digits, you’re going into DC with a mandate – a mandate to stop the wasteful spending and get our economy back on track.”
Haley’s message appeared to be resonating with some voters as she crisscrossed Iowa this weekend. The blizzard that swept through Iowa forced Haley to hold remote events on Friday, but she was back on the campaign trail starting Saturday, holding town halls all across the state in the final days before the caucuses.
“We just like her ideas. We like her style. Her positions seem to be well thought out,” Dennis Hinkle, a voter who attended Haley’s event in Iowa City on Saturday, said. “I’m not a lover of chaos. And I think we’re living with it every day.”
Tina Mimnaugh, who attended the Ames event on Sunday and plans to caucus for Haley, said, “In the first debate, I just really appreciated the way she answered and the way she stood up for herself. She just had the same kind of values that I do.”
The argument of Haley’s electability also appeared to hold sway with voters. “Statistically, I think she has a better chance. And we need someone with a better chance,” caucusgoer Nancy Wildanger said in Iowa City. “She’s very levelheaded. She’s smart. She’s got a vision. I feel good about her.”
But Haley has had some stumbles in the weeks leading up to the caucuses. She was widely criticized for initially refusing to acknowledge that slavery was the cause of the civil war, comments that she later had to walk back. In a particularly stinging incident for Iowans, Haley said at a town hall in New Hampshire, which will hold its primary later this month, that the state would “correct” the results of the caucuses.
“I trust every single one of you. You know how to do this,” Haley said in New Hampshire. “You know Iowa starts it. You know that you correct it.”
Although her opponents criticized her for the gaffe, Haley’s comment accurately reflected her campaign’s approach to the early voting states. Trump remains well ahead of all of his opponents in Iowa, but Haley has inched closer to him in New Hampshire. According to the FiveThirtyEight average of New Hampshire polls, Haley is now roughly 11 points behind Trump, as she has cut his lead in half over the past month.
Rather than being offended by Haley’s focus on New Hampshire, some of the Iowa caucus-goers who attended her town halls appeared rather clear-eyed about her strategy.
“I think she’ll finish second [in Iowa],” Hinkle said. “If she comes in second, I think it’ll springboard her on to New Hampshire.”
Sam Levine contributed reporting from Iowa City, Iowa
