Nikki Haley's campaign is analyzing the results of the New Hampshire primary to determine their strengths and weaknesses. While they achieved some successes in certain areas, they face challenges in capturing the conservative vote, which is crucial for their campaign's progress.
In New Hampshire, Haley's team set specific goals and managed to achieve several of them. They won key locations such as Portsmouth and the surrounding suburbs, as well as Hollis, located to the left of Nashua. Furthermore, Haley received an impressive 38,000 more votes than Donald Trump did in the same state eight years ago. However, it should be noted that turnout in this election was significant, with Trump garnering 173,000 votes. Trump's prominent support among conservatives presents a significant obstacle for Haley, as she is winning over more moderate and undeclared voters.
As the race progresses, Haley's path is becoming narrower, and she faces the challenge of appealing to conservative voters. The next contest is in Nevada, where Trump enjoys substantial support from the state party. Haley's team is aware of the importance of her home state, South Carolina, as the next battleground. Serving as the state's governor for six years, she hopes to leverage her record to secure victory. The campaign believes that in the primaries and caucuses leading up to Super Tuesday in early March, the pace will slow down, as it did in New Hampshire. They point out that more than half of these contests are open or semi-open, meaning that either party registration is not required or that crossover voting is permitted.
However, it is essential to recall the dynamics of past elections. In 2000, for instance, John McCain's victory over George W. Bush in New Hampshire was followed by Bush's confidence in South Carolina. The conservative nature of upcoming states, such as Missouri, Virginia, and Texas, may pose a substantial challenge for Haley if she fails to secure a win in South Carolina. Moreover, staying in the race will require significant financial resources.
A noteworthy pattern to observe is the difference in ad spending between Trump and Haley in South Carolina. Trump, benefitting from his name recognition and strong support, has not had the same need to campaign extensively or allocate significant funds towards advertising. In contrast, Haley's campaign and pro-Haley super PACs have already committed or spent $5 million on television ads in South Carolina, compared to Trump's $184,000.
Trump's campaign sources have indicated that he intends to exert pressure on Haley to withdraw from the race, considering South Carolina as the endpoint. It remains to be seen whether Trump's team will increase their spending or employ other tactics. Thus far, Haley has invested heavily in campaigning, while Trump's dominance has not necessitated the same level of effort. As the election moves forward, South Carolina is anticipated to become a fierce battleground for the candidates.
