Nigeria is in the midst of a tense wait as election authorities count tens of millions of votes that will determine who will become president in Africa’s most populous country and control its national assembly.
Voting on Saturday was marred by widespread delays and some scattered violence but fears of widespread chaos proved unfounded.
Early hopes that official nationwide results could be expected from late on Sunday appear optimistic as a new system deployed by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has developed significant technical problems. The final election tally is expected by the middle of next week.
Analysts speak of a “bellwether” election that could be a crucial turning point for Nigeria after several years of worsening insecurity and acute economic troubles. Many believe a credible poll and progress in tackling the country’s multiple problems are key to stability across a swath of Africa.
On Victoria Island in Lagos, Dennis Olatunji, a 42-year-old vendor, said he was worried a long delay to results could cause tensions to rise further. “It’s going to be a problem for everybody, whoever they voted for.”
Others shared his concern. “Let Nigeria decide O! @inecigeria,” the Nigerian Afrobeats musician winner Burna Boy wrote on Twitter. “No try any result magic.”
Eighteen candidates are vying to replace the outgoing two-term president, Muhammadu Buhari, but only three are considered to have a credible chance of winning power: Bola Tinubu, from the ruling All Progressives Congress; Atiku Abubakar, of the main opposition People’s Democratic party; and the Labour party’s Peter Obi, who is leading in some polls.
Tinubu, 70, and Atiku, 76, are seen as traditional politicians representing Nigeria’s established political elite. Obi, 62, is considered a reformist who has reached across the country’s faultlines to woo voters from all ethnic and religious communities. His challenge threatens the dominance of the two parties in power since the end of military rule in 1999, making Saturday’s election the most competitive for decades.
On Saturday, Obi said he was confident of victory. “I have the mental capacity, energy and drive to lead this country. We need to get things right in Nigeria,” the tycoon told reporters.
Observers differed over the turnout, with no reliable counts yet available. Some early estimates suggest a high turnout, which would be expected to deliver a boost to Obi, who is popular among young people who make up about a third of the 87 million eligible voters.
Tinubu, whose campaign slogan was “it’s my turn”, said he was “certain of victory”.
Though the contest looks close, Nigerian electoral law makes a runoff unlikely as the winning candidate needs only a plurality of votes, provided they get 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of the 36 states.
The multiple delays, incidents of disruption and technological problems with the new voting systems have come in for fierce criticism. Yiaga Africa, a coalition of civil society groups, said it had concerns about “voter suppression and irregularities”.
“It gets to the point where we can no longer accept the excuses [of INEC],” a spokesperson for the coalition said at a press conference on Sunday. “If the official results are manipulated at any point in the process we will be able to expose it.”
Senior electoral officials moved to allay concern. Festus Okoye, INEC’s national commissioner for information and voter education, told reporters that Nigerians could be confident results from the polling stations were “safe”.
“The commission is aware of challenges … and regrets this setback,” Okoye said on Sunday. “These results cannot be tampered with and any discrepancy between them and the physical results used in collation will be thoroughly investigated and remediated.”
Nigeria is contending with multiple intersecting crises including economic turmoil, extremism and criminality affecting much of the country. In recent weeks, an effort to replace almost all Nigeria’s bank notes – in part to reduce the widespread practice of vote-buying – has caused massive economic disruption and much popular anger.
The cash shortage also hit turnout, observers believe, while making travel much harder for election workers and police officers providing security for the poll.
However, analysts point out this is the seventh poll held since the end of military rule in 1999 and that some Nigerian democratic institutions are growing stronger. That none of the main candidates are former military officers – a first for a Nigerian poll – is also viewed as an achievement. The decision of Buhari, 80, to respect the constitutional two-term limit has also been cited as a positive sign.
Many Nigerians express deep disillusionment with their government, though are often wary of any radical break with the past. “I witnessed the worst experience of my life under this administration. Recently I spent two days without eating anything,” said Ahmad Sulaiman, 49, who sells handbags in a market, as he stood in the baking sun in a dusty alleyway in Kano.
“I voted because I wanted change,” he said, declining to say who he had voted for.
