REFORM are on course to win two seats in Scotland’s biggest city, according to a leading political expert.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said that Nigel Farage’s party is set to take more seats in Glasgow than the Greens currently have.
Based on an average of opinion polls which put Reform on 11% nationally, Curtice said this would be enough for them to win two seats in Glasgow. The Greens currently have one seat in the city.
Borne out in an election, it would be a bombshell moment for Scottish politics and a blow to Glasgow’s self-image and reputation as a “progressive” city.
Curtice told The National: “Given the evidence of the opinion polls now and what we know about the geography of Scotland, a party that is running at 11% in the polls is very, very likely to pick up two seats on the Glasgow regional list because basically the general rule is, it’s about 5.6% of the vote that you usually need to pick up a seat.”
But he added that Reform were currently finding it harder to gain ground in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK.
Curtice said: “Relatively speaking, Reform are not doing particularly well in Scotland because their current share in GB-wide polls is about 19%.”
Reform picked up 167,979 votes in Scotland at the last General Election, more than the Greens on 92,685 but less than half of the total for the Tories.
This came despite barely running a campaign in Scotland, with the party preferring to focus its attention on a handful of seats in England.
Their campaign was also marred by a string of embarrassing revelations about candidates, including some who had made racist comments, which has resulted in tightened up vetting proceedures.
The party launched its manifesto – which it called a “contract” with voters – in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales.
But its first serious foray into Scottish politics came last week at its conference in Perth – where the party celebrated the defection of two Tory councillors in North Ayrshire and two others in Aberdeenshire.
The event was met with protests and deputy leader Richard Tice was forced to insist that Farage was not "scared" of Scotland after snubbing the conference.
In a direct challenge to Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay (below), who earlier this week claimed a vote for Reform would aid the SNP, Curtice said voting Conservative would be a “wasted vote”.
He said: “The bad news for Mr Findlay is that, given the current polls, the Conservatives are just not going to get represented in Glasgow, they’re too far behind.
“I’m afraid the riposte would be: In Glasgow, at least, it looks like a Conservative vote would be a wasted vote.”
But Curtice stressed it was “impossible” to say who Reform would be taking seats from exactly because there were “too many moving parts” given the unpopularity of the SNP, Labour and the Tories.
A Scottish Conservatives spokesperson said: "Under Russell Findlay’s leadership, the Scottish Conservatives are working hard to rebuild trust with voters including in Glasgow, who just want politicians to speak some common sense for a change.
“Glaswegians are being failed by both the SNP and Labour governments, who we’re holding to account.
“We will put forward a positive vision for voters who want a different approach from the cosy left-wing consensus in Holyrood.”
A Reform UK Scotland spokesman said: "Reform has all the momentum in Scottish politics. Recent by-election results in Glasgow show our popularity.
"We are still 18 months away from the Holyrood elections and are constantly building up the party infrastructure.
"Sky is the limit for Reform in Scotland. Scotland needs Reform."
