Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is torpedoing Rishi Sunak’s attempt to get even to “base camp” to close the gap on Labour, says a top polling expert.
Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, stressed that former Tory voters were deserting the party for Reform.
One poll suggested that Reform may have overtaken the Tories, or the two parties were at least neck-and-neck.
Sir John highlighted that the polls this week pointed to the Right-wing party, led by Mr Farage who is standing to be Clacton MP, being more likely four to five points behind the Conservatives.
However, he added on BBC radio: “This is still bad news for the Conservatives.
“The only way that Rishi Sunak can hope to get even to base camp in narrowing the lead that Labour has started off with in this campaign was to squeeze the Reform vote because virtually all the Reform vote is coming from Conservative voters.”
Polls this week, he added, showed the Tories and Labour both losing ground, seemingly largely to Reform and the Liberal Democrats respectively.
Labour was averaging 41 per cent, down three point over the course of the campaign, and the Conservatives on 20 per cent, down four points.
Reform was up to 16 per cent on average, though this may be on the high side as recent data was from polling firms that tended to put Mr Farage’s party higher than some others but Sir John believes it is “certainly not short of 15 points”
The Lib Dems have put on two points to 12 per cent.
Sir John added: “As Conservatives and Labour focus on each other they are actually both of them losing ground to the smaller parties.
“The Liberal Democrats are now making some progress, this may be part of explanation of why Labour support is down.”
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned on Thursday against Labour being given a “super majority” on July 4, in what may be seen as a sign of some Tories accepting they are heading to election defeat, and an attempt to limit the size of such a loss.
But Treasury minister Bim Afolami said the Conservatives have "not accepted we're going to lose" the glection.
On whether the YouGov poll showing Reform UK had overtaken the Tories was a moment the party feared, Mr Afolami told Times Radio: "No, polls are polls, there's pretty much a poll every single day in this campaign, there'll be more, it's one poll out of literally hundreds.”
He added: "I completely understand if there are Conservative voters who feel frustrated or angry or they don't feel at the moment that they want to support the Conservatives - and that's what we're fighting for, every single vote in this campaign.
"But a vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer because there is only one of two people who can be prime minister at the end of this election - it's either going to be Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak."
Mr Farage responded to the one poll putting his party ahead of the Tories, by saying: “We are now the real opposition to Labour.”
Mr Afolami also sought to ram home his party’s core message that a Labour government would “tax your home, your job, your car and your pension”.
The Treasury, the UK statistics watchdog and independent fact checkers have criticised Tory claims over Labour’s tax and spending plans.
