Indian equity markets endured a bruising four-session selloff before finding tentative footing, with the Nifty 50 touching a low of 23,262. For Rohit Srivastava, Founder of Strike Money Analytics and Indiacharts, that number is significant; proprietary sentiment gauges have reached extreme oversold territory, a condition that has historically preceded sharp recoveries.
"The sense is that this is the bottom we should slowly start moving up from here," Srivastava told ET Now, adding that clearing the 23,800 level would be the first confirmation that a meaningful upswing is underway. From there, he sees a path toward 24,800–25,000 over the coming weeks, with the Nifty potentially retesting its all-time highs near 26,000 by the latter half of June.
The analyst was careful to frame the recovery as a gradual climb rather than a vertical spike. The one wildcard he acknowledged: unexpected geopolitical developments, which remain impossible to model but could disrupt the technical setup at any point.
Where to position now. Srivastava highlighted two broad areas worth watching for the rally. Metals stand out as a relative strength play — the sector has been remarkably resilient during the broader market dip, holding ground on down days and outperforming on relief rallies.
Metals
Showing resilience on every market dip. Seen as a primary sector to lead the next leg higher. Buy on weakness.
Smaller private banks & NBFCs
Second-line financials showing clean momentum. Avoid large-cap private banks and PSU banks for now — momentum is weak at the top.
PSU banks
Underperforming and best avoided in the near term according to Srivastava's reading of current chart structures.
The broader thesis is one of selective accumulation — building long positions gradually from current levels rather than chasing momentum. With sentiment stretched to the downside and chart structure suggesting a base is forming, Srivastava's call is essentially a contrarian one: the time to buy is when the news flow feels most uncomfortable.
