The Nifty is at a technical crossroads. After recovering more than 300 points from its recent swing low, the index now faces a critical resistance wall at 23,516, and how it behaves around that level will determine whether the current uptrend gets confirmed or stalls again. That was the key takeaway from Vinay Rajani, AVP and Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, speaking to ET Now during midday trade.
The levels every Nifty trader needs to know
Rajani identified 23,516 as the immediate resistance, the recent swing high that the index must decisively surpass before a fresh uptrend can be declared. On the downside, 23,100 is the critical support zone. That level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire April rally, making it what Rajani called the "golden ratio" support as per Fibonacci theory. The Nifty has been attempting to hold above it, and he recommended traders maintain long positions with a stop loss placed at exactly that mark.
- Immediate resistance: 23,516
- Key support (61.8% Fib): 23,100
- Recovery from swing low: 300+ pts
Rajani also highlighted a notable intraday shift in market character: Nifty and Bank Nifty were outperforming midcap, smallcap, and microcap indices, a reversal from recent sessions where broader markets had been leading. He interpreted this as a healthy rotation and reiterated a bullish stance on broader markets overall, framing the recent weakness as profit booking or consolidation rather than a structural breakdown.
"A breakout above 23,516 will confirm the uptrend. Till then, play stock-specific. We remain bullish on broader markets." says Rajani.
Two stocks to trade right now
While the Nifty awaits its breakout signal, Rajani offered two concrete trading ideas:
FMCG: Pidilite Industries
Entry (long): ~₹1,520
Stop loss: ₹1,485
Target: ₹1,580
Breakout from a prolonged consolidation range after holding above key moving averages.
AMC: Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC
Entry (long): ~₹1,100
Stop loss: ₹1,080
Target: ₹1,140
Trading near its 52-week and all-time high with clear-cut momentum on the charts.
Rajani noted the FMCG index has shown strength after a long and healthy correction, making sector-level tailwinds an additional positive for the Pidilite trade. For Aditya Birla AMC, the proximity to all-time highs combined with strong price momentum makes it a technically convincing setup, he said.
