Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest in a police probe into party finances is the darkest day in the SNP's 89-year history.
It leaves the party she led for nearly a decade in turmoil and facing electoral oblivion.
The SNP/Green Government is in a tailspin and struggling to lift itself out of Sturgeon’s shadow.
And the independence movement is fractured, rudderless and hopelessly divided.
Operation Branchform, which has been looking into how nearly £600,000 of IndyRef2 donations were spent, did not unduly concern party bosses at the outset.
Maverick independence supporter Sean Clerkin was among the original complainers and it was felt the probe would fizzle out.
But the long-running probe now threatens to derail a party that has dominated Scottish politics for more than a decade.
Sturgeon, released without charge last night, remains the country’s pre-eminent politician and her arrest is a political earthquake that has rocked Scotland.
She contested eight elections in her nine years in charge and won them all.
Her household name status was secured when she fronted televised press conferences during the pandemic.
Alex Salmond getting charged over multiple sexual offences claims was a massive story but the Sturgeon arrest is bigger.
Even the staunchest critics of her successor Humza Yousaf may feel a pang of sympathy for the new First Minister.
His first few weeks in post were overshadowed by the arrests of Sturgeon’s husband – Peter Murrell – and former SNP treasurer Colin Beattie.
Both men were released without charge pending further investigation, but Yousaf was asked about little else in those early days and struggled to cope.
Yousaf has since managed to get a grip by ditching unpopular policies and making focused announcements on child poverty and school violence.
But while Operation Branchform remains live he will be unable to govern in a meaningful way.
He and his advisers will live in fear of every Police Scotland tweet in case it provides details of another arrest.
He will be quizzed by journalists at Holyrood for his take on the latest developments, rather than for his thoughts on his policies. Every new leader wants their first 100 days to be marked by verve, drive and purpose.
Through no fault of his own, Yousaf is leading an administration of the walking dead.
Even Kevin Pringle – the FM’s talented new spin doctor who starts this week – will struggle to get his boss on the front pages for the right reasons.
At a party level, the impact of the investigation could see the SNP facing a general election bloodbath.
The chaos of the earlier arrests saw Labour dramatically close the polling gap on its bitter rival even before Sturgeon’s arrest.
Anas Sarwar’s party is talking about the sort of political tsunami the SNP benefited from in 2015, saying it could be repeated in reverse.
In 2019, the SNP won 48 of the 59 Westminsters seats in Scotland, while Labour limped home with one.
Labour insiders believe the dark cloud hovering over the SNP, coupled with under-performance in Government, could see their party leapfrog the nationalists next year.
Yousaf’s supporters are nervously fearing a historic electoral defeat from which it might take decades to recover.
The wider harm caused by yesterday’s drama is on the prospects for independence.
Despite Yes losing in the 2014 referendum, Sturgeon inherited a mass-movement party and a country half of which believed in independence.
Labour’s uselessness helped secure her dominance and Brexit breathed further life into the cause she had spent her adult life supporting.
Successive electoral victories emboldened her to demand IndyRef2 from Westminster.
But the prospects of independence are as remote now as they have been for decades.
The credible options for a referendum have been closed off by the UK Government and the Supreme Court.
A special SNP independence “convention”, otherwise known as a toothless talking shop, is convening this month to hammer out a new strategy against a backdrop of mayhem.
Even without the anguish of Operation Branchform, independence was receding as a major issue and disappearing into the horizon.
It will be an uphill struggle to ask activists to chap on doors when the main vehicle for independence, the SNP, is in disarray.
Raising money for the next independence push will be almost impossible when an earlier donations drive is subject to a fraud probe.
The different parts of the pro-independence coalition are also at war.
Salmond’s Alba is trying to take down the SNP and the Greens will not work with the former First Minister.
Sturgeon largely kept the pro-indy movement united for most of her leadership. Her resignation as first minister and arrest are sure signs independence is dead for a generation.
To sign up to the Daily Record Politics newsletter, click here .
