Nobody in the SNP, even in the upper echelons, is predicting with any certainty who will succeed Nicola Sturgeon.
When Alex Salmond stood down in 2014, Sturgeon was the only serious contender and became leader without a contest.
A lack of succession planning this time around means we are likely to get one of the most open races in the history of the SNP.
But one thing unites the senior party figures contacted by the Record - whoever takes over will be a pale imitation of Sturgeon.
One of the most influential figures in the SNP said:
“This is Alex Ferguson territory. It’s like when he left Man Utd.”
The insider’s point was that the SNP would inevitably pick someone who was not as good as the person leaving the job.
All the potential candidates have their strengths, but they also display obvious weaknesses.
Kate Forbes, who is on maternity leave, has received positive reviews as Finance Secretary and could be a popular choice in Middle Scotland.
But she is also a social conservative in a socially liberal party and would face questions on abortion and gay rights.
In 2018, at the height of the row over abortion rights in Northern Ireland, she attended a prayer breakfast and said:
“May our politicians recognise that the way we treat the most vulnerable – whether the unborn or the terminally ill – is a measure of true progress.”
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf is also spoken of as a potential candidate, but the troubles he has faced in his brief would provide ammunition for opponents.
Others, such as Keith Brown and Angus Robertson, could win a contest, but could they inspire a nation?
The parallels with the departure of Tony Blair as Labour leader in 2007 are strong.
Blair was a formidable election winner whose exit delighted the Tories on the grounds that they could not lay a glove on him. Labour have never won a general election since he left office.
Party figures fear the SNP without Sturgeon could be heading for a similar slump.
To sign up to the Daily Record Politics newsletter, click here.
