The PSNI's ability to deal with serious disorder and violence will "slow down" as it experiences a "full-blown crisis" with its budget, the Chair of the Police Federation in Northern Ireland has said.
Liam Kelly told Belfast Live he feared that more and more officers could also end up leaving policing as Chief Constable Simon Byrne acknowledged on Thursday that the PSNI would "shrink over the next three years".
"The time is now right for our public and our politicians to recognise that we're in a full-blown crisis in policing here," he said.
Read more: PSNI budget cuts will mean ability to tackle crime "reduced and slowed", chief says
"The mantra around this that the Chief Constable is using is 'less police, less policing' and that's the reality, cuts will have consequences and are having consequences right now.
"It may well be that the proactive side of things will be one of the things that will have to change."
On Thursday, the Chief Constable acknowledged that his message was a "bleak one".
Mr Kelly said the loss of 309 officers by March would have drastic consequences for the service and that could worsen with further budget woes predicted for the following years.
"We simply just do not have the people to be able to function the way that we have done in the past," he said.
"By March, the PSNI headcount for officers will be the lowest it's ever been, which is a shocking indictment of the investment in policing.
"We still have a terrorist threat for our officers on and off duty and organised crime has exponentially grown, cyber crime has exponentially grown right across the UK and we will have less people to deal with some of the aspects of that."
Mr Kelly said morale was low among police ranks and said years of under-investment was coming to the fore.
"We've got to focus on the most important things to society because we can't focus on everything - if everything's a priority, nothing's a priority," he said.
"The original budget given to PSNI was some £75m deficit, but with the cost of living crisis, increasing costs of fuel etc for the service, PSNI are projecting that could be as high as £106m.
"PSNI have done a wee bit of modelling around what cuts will look like, but the reality of having no recruitment and having a retention issue means that one year of cuts potentially will take two to three years to fix.
"So the original projection for cuts year-on-year would literally eviscerate what the police can do, which is where nobody wants to be."
He said the real impact of the cuts was already being felt and was exacerbating current problems as well as adding to a growing list of future issues.
"I think the reality is starting to set in for some people now, particularly officers who have come in in the last few years," he said.
"They're saying 'this is not what I was expecting, I was expecting to get paid more, I wasn't really aware what the risk was to me personally on and off duty, I wasn't aware of the restrictions placed on me in my private life and other matters'.
"So when you weigh all that up and you look across the public and private sector, more and more officers are voting with their feet now.
"Not only the junior officers, we're having a number of mid-service officers who are deciding enough is enough and they don't feel the support is there, so I think there will be a problem with recruitment going forward."
There was also a warning that instances of violence and rioting could be even more difficult to control without adequate numbers or experience to tackle them.
"That can move, and sorry for using the term, but from flash to bang very, very quickly and basically the response to be able to do that will slow down," he said.
"That carries risk to our officers who aren't in those units, because they will be the first responders to some of those things and they may not be equipped, or in proper vehicles to be able to provide an effective response.
"The bigger concern I have is particularly with those Level 1 Tactical Support Group officers, who are at the front line of public order - but that's a very small part of it.
"The other side of that role which is maybe unseen by the public is specialist search and that specialist search is primarily assisting our specialist departments, primarily houses, areas, people., but particularly missing persons as well, it really really complicates it.
"Those officers are the organisation's specialists in some regards with that so if we're reducing that ability to do that as well, then things will be missed and there will be cracks."
A security source with knowledge of how the PSNI operates and its structures said a total rethink was needed on how policing was approached.
"Policing is being viewed as a luxury, a luxury that can be cut and it’s not," they said.
"Police and policing is the first punchbag when something goes wrong, yet rarely gets acclaim when it is successful. In fact, in keeping the peace, many successes are not noticeable as an incident has been prevented.
"Diluting policing and in particular the reduction by not replacing retiring officers , is a ticking time bomb.
"Experience and 'policing craft' has been lost, and in the future the foreseeable potholes will not be navigated due to this lack of experience.
"Experienced officers should be encouraged to stay and share their knowledge not lost for financial expedience."
They went on to say that the most serious crimes required both experienced officers and large numbers to get a prosecution over the line.
"Murder investigations, rape investigations, terrorism and organised crime investigations require a large number of experienced detectives," they added.
"There is so much that goes on behind the scenes to gather, process and evaluate many lines which require scrutiny and to be prepared sufficiently to meet modern day crown court standards.
"This ability will undoubtedly be impacted by any cuts. These units are already running on reduced numbers.
"The dangers are that corners could be cut and that could result in failed prosecutions through technicalities in evidence production or unfollowed lines of enquiry.
"Proactive police activity is likely to be impacted which could undoubtedly have the impact of missed opportunities to put drug lords and serious offenders behind bars.
"In my opinion, the police numbers must be increased to at least the levels recommended in the Patten report and finances increased to meet the needs of modern policing.
"With the inability to strike the police are the easy cost reduction, in reality doing so is a mistake which will have repercussions very quickly."
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