It’s wild-card weekend, not super wild-card weekend, no matter what the NFL tells you.
Between Saturday, Sunday and Monday night, there are a half dozen games to be played. We’ll start with the surprising Houston Texans hosting the Cleveland Browns, and end with the Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In these six games, there are matchups within the matchups that will decide who wins and who goes home. Let’s dive into each.
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AFC WILD CARD
No. 5 Cleveland Browns (11–6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10–7)
When: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: NBC
Key matchup: How the Texans’ secondary defends Joe Flacco’s deep ball
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In one of the better stories of the season, Flacco has commanded Cleveland to a 4–1 mark in his five starts. At the heart of his success has been the deep ball, particularly with receiver Amari Cooper. In those five games, Flacco has thrown for 300-plus yards four times.
Meanwhile, Houston can be beaten through the air. The Texans allowed 11.2 yards per reception, tied for 22nd in the regular season.
No. 6 Miami Dolphins (11–6) at No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (11–6)
When: 8 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: Peacock
Key matchup: Chiefs’ pass rush vs. Dolphins’ front
Kansas City thrived in getting to the quarterback all year, ranking second in sacks (57) and first in pressure rate (26.7%).
However, the Dolphins were excellent at avoiding sacks. Miami checked in fifth with a 5.2% sack rate allowed. Lastly, Tua Tagovailoa tied for the quickest release per drop-back at 2.1 seconds.
No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7) at No. 2 Buffalo Bills (11–6)
When: 1 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: CBS
Key matchup: Bills’ third-down offense against Steelers’ defense
Buffalo has been terrific converting on third downs this season. The Bills led the league with a 49.8% rate, utilizing the trio of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and James Cook to perfection.
Conversely, third down has been an issue for Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers ranked 21st, allowing a first down 39.1% of the time.
NFC WILD CARD
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9–8) at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys (12–5)
When: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: Fox
Key matchup: Cowboys’ yards after catch against Packers’ defense
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Throughout the regular season, Dallas thrived on getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers before turning upfield. The Cowboys ranked 10th in yards after catch with 2,032, helping it win the NFC East.
Yet, the Packers pose a significant challenge here. Green Bay’s defense was ninth in yards after catch allowed, surrendering only 1,747.
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams (10–7) at No. 3 Detroit Lions (12–5)
When: 8 p.m. ET Sunday
TV: NBC
Key matchup: Lions’ vertical attack against Rams’ secondary
If there’s one glaring mismatch in this game, it’s when Jared Goff looks long for Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jameson Williams. During the regular season, the Lions ranked fifth in air yards with 2,450, consistently stretching the field.
As for the Rams, they were torched throughout the campaign on deep shots, permitting 2,466 air yards, better than only three teams.
No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles (11–6) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9–8)
When: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday
TV: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
Key matchup: Buccaneers’ red zone offense against Eagles’ defense
This is going to be a classic, titanic struggle between two units that can’t find success.
On one hand, the Buccaneers’ offense is bad inside the 20-yard line, ranking 30th at 44.9% during the season, ahead of only the New York Giants and New York Jets. However, the Eagles’ defense was also 30th, giving up touchdowns 66.1% of the time on such trips.
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