I’m not sure if it’s the inflated 13-4 record of the Minnesota Vikings or the simple existence of Justin Jefferson on their roster, but a higher percentage of bets have come in on Minnesota’s side of both the spread and moneyline.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites Sunday over the New York Giants, who they beat with a game-winning 60-yard field goal on Christmas Eve, and 57% of betslips at DraftKings have them covering that number, according to VSiN. That percentage is the same for moneyline bets, which are up to 62% in favor of the Vikings across different sportsbooks, according to Action Network.
It’s evident the public expects Minnesota to win, but I don’t see how that can be for any reasons provided by the team. Which means people simply don’t trust the Giants enough, and that could be a big mistake.
Before we get into why the Giants are a sleeper, it must be said that the Vikings defense is bad. Like, really bad. They ranked 30th in points allowed during the regular season and 31st in yards allowed. That matters against a team not thought of as having a good offense like the Giants because it leaves the door open for New York to exceed expectations on that side of the ball.
That’s exactly what happened in these teams’ first meeting when the Giants posted a season-high 445 yards and very nearly won. Daniel Jones threw for 334 yards, his second game all season with more than 300 yards.
However, Jones’ typically low passing yardage shouldn’t be used as a sign that he can’t air it out on the Vikings again. His 60.7 QBR this season is easily the best of his career and ranked seventh in the entire NFL. Jones’ modest averages can be attributed to a conservative offense that leans on the run due to minimal playmakers on the outside.
But when they needed to, the Giants were able to open things up against Minnesota. That it was possible to the extent that it was should be a concern for people betting on the Vikings.
One week after dicing up Minnesota, Jones had maybe his best game ever, combining for four passing and rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Those two games were the last he’s played, and make up the confidence he comes into the playoffs with. The Vikings will also have to deal with the ultimate weapon and NFL’s fourth-leading rusher Saquon Barkley.
Add to all of that a Giants defense that’s getting healthy at the right time — top cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and starting safety Xavier McKinney are expected to play after missing the first Minnesota game — and the Giants could be a real threat to pull off an upset.
That’s likely why a greater percentage of money on the game leans Giants, despite the higher percentage of total bets going the other way. The money is usually right.
