If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Eagles at Texans (+13) (O/U: 44)
Eagles: 7-0 (5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Texans: 1-5-1 (3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Huge spread here, and it almost doesn’t feel big enough. Houston has shown very little offensive life, and the Eagles offense is humming right now.
2
Vikings at Commanders (+3.5) (O/U: 43.5)
Vikings: 6-1 (3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U)
Commanders: 4-4 (4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
The Commanders are winners of three straight, which probably plays into a smaller spread than you’d expect. But this is by far the best team they’ve played in the stretch.
3
Bills at Jets (+13) (O/U: 47.5)
Bills: 6-1 (4-3 ATS, 1-6 O/U)
Jets: 5-3 (5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
A week ago, the Jets were the hot new kids on the block. Now, they’re 13-point underdogs to the Bills. Zach Wilson’s awful quarterbacking probably plays a part in that. I’m eyeing the under in this one.
4
Packers at Lions (+3) (O/U: 49)
Packers: 3-5 (3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Lions: 1-6 (3-3-1 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Detroit isn’t covering spreads quite like it used to, but the Packers aren’t winning quite like they used to. You have to go back to 2018 for the last time Aaron Rodgers lost consecutive games to the Lions, but it can happen here.
5
Panthers at Bengals (-7.5) (O/U: 43.5)
Panthers: 2-6 (3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Bengals: 4-4 (5-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
This would have been an easy pick two weeks ago, but the Bengals looked awful Monday night without Ja’Marr Chase. The Panthers are fighting! This spread feels too big, and the under is looking a little scrumptious too.
6
Raiders at Jaguars (+1) (O/U: 47.5)
Raiders: 2-5 (3-4 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
Jaguars: 2-6 (2-6 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Just when you think the Raiders are pulling it together, they lay an egg. And the Jags can’t finish games. I honestly have no clue what to do with this one.
7
Colts at Patriots (-5.5) (O/U: 39.5)
Colts: 3-4-1 (3-5 ATS, 1-7 O/U)
Patriots: 4-4 (4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Sam Ehlinger wasn’t bad in his first start, but drawing Bill Belichick in his second start is a tough draw. Luckily for him, Mac Jones has to play the Colts defense. Points will be tough to come by here.
8
Dolphins at Bears (+5) (O/U: 44)
Dolphins: 5-3 (3-4-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Bears: 3-5 (3-4-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
The spread feels small here, but Miami gives up a lot of yards and Justin Fields seems to be coming into his own. Whatever the result, the over feels like a good play.
9
Chargers at Falcons (+3) (O/U: 49)
Chargers: 4-3 (4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
Falcons: 4-4 (6-2 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Chargers are coming off a bye week, and the Falcons just barely escaped the Panthers. They’re probably due for a dud.
10
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1.5) (O/U: 50)
Seahawks: 5-3 (5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Cardinals: 3-5 (4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
First-place Seattle is an underdog here, but I really feel like the Seahawks should be favored. They already beat the Cards once and Geno Smith is playing better than any QB in the division.
11
Rams at Buccaneers (-3) (O/U: 42.5)
Rams: 3-4 (2-5 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Buccaneers: 3-5 (2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U)
Which team has been more disappointing? Flip a coin. If Cooper Kupp is truly healthy, I probably lean towards taking the points but I don’t feel good about it.
12
Titans at Chiefs (-12.5) (O/U: 46.5)
Titans: 5-2 (5-2 ATS, 2-5 O/U)
Chiefs: 5-2 (3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
This is a lot of points to lay against a team as reliant on the run as the Titans. And KC has struggled against them in past regular seasons.
13
Ravens at Saints (+3) (O/U: 48.5)
Ravens: 5-3 (4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Saints: 3-5 (3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U)
Prior to shutting out the Raiders on Sunday, the Saints had allowed at least 30 points in three straight games. Which defense will show up against the Ravens?
