We’re approaching the midway point of the NFL season.
For some teams, that means making a move up the standings. The Rams, Vikings, Packers and Commanders are all NFC teams who some believed in this preseason, yet currently have losing records. Minnesota has been surging lately, but can it continue? Green Bay hopes not.
In the AFC, the Jaguars and Steelers have a pivotal showdown in the Steel City, a game that could have playoff implications from a tiebreaker standpoint. Then there’s the rematch between the Dolphins and Patriots, with Miami looking to sweep the season series and further bury New England in the AFC East.
So what will determine those games and all the others? We break it all down.
Los Angeles Rams (3–4) at Dallas Cowboys (4–2)
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Key matchup: Matthew Stafford against the Cowboys’ secondary
The Rams have been willing and able to throw downfield this season. Stafford has an average depth of target of 8.6 yards, seventh-most in the league. This jives with Los Angeles ranking second in air yards (1,159), behind only the Vikings.
Yet the Cowboys have been excellent at forcing teams to go underneath. Dallas has surrendered only 552 air yards, with the Browns being the only team to better that figure.
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Minnesota Vikings (3–4) at Green Bay Packers (2–4)
Key matchup: Minnesota’s blitzing against Jordan Love
Both the Packers and Vikings are desperate to win, with each knowing a victory puts them in second place in the NFC North. Sunday’s tilt may come down to whether Love can quickly unload the ball.
Love averages 2.5 seconds in the pocket per dropback this season. Only four qualifying quarterbacks hold the ball longer. The Vikings will speed him up with their league-high blitz rate of 50.8%.
Atlanta Falcons (4–3) at Tennessee Titans (2–4)
Key matchup: The Titans’ red-zone offense against Atlanta
Tennessee is likely without quarterback Ryan Tannehill this weekend, making any red-zone trips all the more important. The last 20 yards have been tough for the Titans all season, as they rank tied for 30th (33.3%) in that area.
On the other side, the Falcons have been tough defensively inside their own 20-yard line. Atlanta checks in fifth at 38.9%, forcing many field goal attempts.
New Orleans Saints (3–4) at Indianapolis Colts (3–4)
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Key matchup: Saints’ return game against the Colts’ punt coverage
New Orleans has struggled at times to get the offense going in the first year of Derek Carr’s tenure under center. However, the Saints have done a nice job getting good field position through punt returns. They average 18.3 yards per chance, second-best in football.
Conversely, the Colts have been susceptible to good returns, allowing 178 punt-return yards, tied for fifth-most in the NFL. On a per-return basis, the ranking improves to 12th-best at 10.5 yards.
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New England Patriots (2–5) at Miami Dolphins (5–2)
Key matchup: Miami’s ground game against the Patriots’ front seven
The Dolphins are without rookie sensation De’Von Achane, but they remain potent on the ground behind veteran Raheem Mostert. Miami is averaging an absurd 6.3 yards per carry, 1.1 yards more than anybody else.
New England will pose a stiff test, though. The Patriots are stopping the run regularly, limiting opponents to 3.4 yards per carry to top the NFL.
New York Jets (3–3) at New York Giants (2–5)
Key matchup: Giants’ offensive line against the Jets’ front four
It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Giants, especially up front. They’ve allowed a league-worst 13.4% of dropbacks to become sacks.
Yet while the Jets rank third in pressure rate (28.5%) they only sack the opposing passer 5.7% of pass attempts, checking in 22nd across the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5–2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4–2)
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Key matchup: The Jaguars’ third-down offense against Pittsburgh
Jacksonville has one of the league’s more talented offensive groups, spearheaded by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. However, third down has been a huge problem. The Jaguars rank 27th in converting those chances at 34.0%.
Defensively, Pittsburgh has also struggled on the most important down, ranking 23rd at a conversion rate of 41.7%.
Philadelphia Eagles (6–1) at Washington Commanders (3–4)
Key matchup: Washington’s offensive line against Philadelphia’s front
Want to talk about a mismatch? This might be the biggest possible one in the trenches. The Commanders have allowed a staggering 40 sacks this season, most in the NFL.
Of course, the Eagles are one of the best teams at getting home. After pacing the NFL in sacks last season, Philadelphia has notched 24 already, behind only the Ravens and Bills.
Houston Texans (3–3) at Carolina Panthers (0–6)
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Key matchup: Tacklers trying to wrap up receivers
The Texans have been surprisingly competitive while the Panthers are still searching for their first win. Yet both have been awful in the open field, ranking 32nd and 31st respectively in missed tackles.
Look for yards after catch to be a huge factor. Houston ranks 14th in the metric while Carolina is an abysmal 27th.
Cleveland Browns (4–2) at Seattle Seahawks (4–2)
Key matchup: Seahawks’ offense against the Browns on third down
Seattle is having another year that looks destined for the playoffs, but there are weak spots. On third down, the Seahawks rank 28th defensively while the offense is 24th (35.7%).
Geno Smith and Co. will have their biggest test yet in this regard. Cleveland’s defense ranks first in a litany of stats, including third-down success, where only 27.5% of attempts are converted.
Kansas City Chiefs (6–1) at Denver Broncos (2–5)
Key matchup: Denver’s defense pressuring Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs have one of the league’s best offensive lines, along with Mahomes excelling at avoiding sacks. Kansas City’s sack rate of 2.5% is the NFL’s standard, along with surrendering a league-low seven sacks.
Conversely, the Broncos have had all sorts of problems getting home. Denver is 31st in pressure rate (16.0%), only better than the one-win Cardinals.
Baltimore Ravens (5–2) at Arizona Cardinals (1–6)
Key matchup: Arizona’s front four against Lamar Jackson
If the Cardinals want to pull off a major upset, it’ll have to be led by pressure up front. That could be a problem.
Baltimore has done an excellent job of protecting Jackson, allowing pressure on only 13.5% of pass attempts, third-best in football. As aforementioned, Arizona has the worst pressure rate in the league at 15.1%.
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Cincinnati Bengals (3–3) at San Francisco 49ers (5–2)
Key matchup: Joe Burrow against the 49ers’ secondary
Burrow has had an awful start to his season, both health-wise and from a production standpoint. The Bengals’ Pro Bowl quarterback is leading a feeble attack, as Cincinnati ranks last in yards per completion (8.4).
Meanwhile, San Francisco is second-best defensively in that category, permitting only 9.1 yards per catch. The Bengals will need to figure out how to generate big plays.
Chicago Bears (2–5) at Los Angeles Chargers (2–4)
Key matchup: Tyson Bagent against the Chargers’ secondary
After defeating the Raiders last weekend, Bagent will make his second career start. This comes in primetime against the Chargers, who have been a sieve against the pass.
Los Angeles is allowing 310 passing yards per game, 36.1 yards more than any other team. Chicago ranks 27th in passing yardage per game (183.0), but perhaps Bagent is set up for a big day.
Las Vegas Raiders (3–4) at Detroit Lions (5–2)
Key matchup: Josh Jacobs against the Lions’ run defense
The Raiders want to shorten the game and limit possessions come Monday night. The easiest way to do that? Pound the ball with Jacobs. However, Las Vegas has been miserable on the ground, checking in 32nd at 3.0 yards per carry.
Detroit was torched across the board last week in Baltimore, but the Lions have been stout for the most part. They limit opponents to 3.7 yards per carry, tied for eighth-best.
