It’s about time for pretenders and contenders to separate.
With 13 games on the schedule this week, the NFL has a few fantastic matchups in Week 7, including a pair of 5–1 squads getting after it, with the Dolphins visiting the Eagles on Sunday night.
There’s also a key interconference game Sunday afternoon, with the Ravens hosting the Lions, who are on a four-game winning streak.
Finally, a couple of fun divisional games are on the docket, with the Chargers visiting the Chiefs in the late window and the Buccaneers and Falcons clashing for first place in the NFC South.
For those games and all others, here are key matchups to watch this week.
Miami Dolphins (5–1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5–1)
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Key matchup: Dolphins’ red zone offense against Eagles’ defense
Miami has the best red zone offense in the NFL, converting 80.8% of trips inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns. And it’s no surprise given the speed of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Conversely, the Eagles have struggled to defend their goal line. Philadelphia sits 25th in red zone defense (65%), allowing teams to cash in with sevens instead of threes.
Buffalo Bills (4–2) at New England Patriots (1–5)
Key matchup: Bills’ pass rush against Patriots’ offensive line
Not much has gone well for New England this season, but the Patriots have done a good job helping Mac Jones avoid quarterback hits. They have allowed just 11 such plays, with only the Buccaneers having a lower number.
Buffalo has the league’s best pressure rate (31.1%) and is third in quarterback hits (47). The Patriots need to keep Jones clean for any chance.
Cleveland Browns (3–2) at Indianapolis Colts (3–3)
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Key matchup: Browns’ defense vs. Gardner Minshew
Cleveland’s defense has been unbelievable in many capacities. The Browns have surrendered only 52 first downs, with no other team allowing fewer than 94. Even more incredible, Cleveland has given up only 27 passing first downs.
Indianapolis ranks 23rd in yards per attempt (6.6) and is tied for 20th in completion rate (63.1%). The Colts will need to find open avenues against Cleveland’s air-tight secondary.
Atlanta Falcons (3–3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–2)
Key matchup: Desmond Ridder against the Bucs’ quick rush
Ridder has struggled for the majority of this season. Last week he threw three interceptions in a loss to Washington. However, he does unload the ball quickly, tied for fourth-quickest pocket time per snap at 2.2 seconds.
Tampa Bay hasn’t generated a ton of pressure, checking in at 21st in the league (20.7%). Yet the Buccaneers blitz at the third-highest rate in football (40.4%). It’ll be a race for Ridder to get the ball out.
Washington Commanders (3–3) at New York Giants (1–5)
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Key matchup: Both offensive lines against pressure
It’s impossible to limit this to one matchup, so we’re going to combine the two. Will the Commanders or Giants do a better job against the opposing front, both of which have real pass rushers?
Washington and New York have allowed the most sacks this season with 34 and 33, respectively. No other team has surrendered more than 25.
Detroit Lions (5–1) at Baltimore Ravens (4–2)
Key matchup: Lamar Jackson’s protection against Detroit’s front
In offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system, Jackson has largely been kept clean. The Ravens rank third in pressure rate against (15.1%), giving the 2019 MVP time to throw.
Additionally, Detroit checks in at 30th in blitz rate (20%) but is an impressive eighth (26.5%) in pressure rate. The Lions will need their front four to work in Baltimore.
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Las Vegas Raiders (3–3) at Chicago Bears (1–5)
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Key matchup: Four-man pressures against young quarterbacks
With the quarterbacks likely to be Aidan O’Connell and Tyson Bagent this week, the Raiders and Bears are trotting out two signal-callers with a combined one NFL start between them.
Both Chicago and Las Vegas rarely blitz, ranking 28th and 29th respectively in blitz percentage. Whichever team gets home quicker and more effectively with four men will have a huge advantage.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3–2) at Los Angeles Rams (3–3)
Key matchup: Kenny Pickett against the Rams’ secondary
Pickett has struggled through the season’s first five games. The second-year quarterback ranks last in on-target percentage (66.9%) while tying for 22nd in intended air yards per attempt (7.4).
The Rams will try to keep Pickett down. They rank 12th in yards after the catch (581) and 13th in net yards per attempt (5.8).
Green Bay Packers (2–3) at Denver Broncos (1–5)
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Key matchup: Packers’ punt coverage against Marvin Mims Jr.
Green Bay has been punting plenty this season, and it hasn’t always gone well. The Packers average 16.1 yards per return against, better than only the Ravens.
Denver, meanwhile, is the league’s best team in punt return average. The Broncos have returned five punts, all by rookie receiver Mims, for 100 total yards.
Los Angeles Chargers (2–3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5–1)
Key matchup: Chargers’ pass defense vs. Patrick Mahomes
Los Angeles is giving up a league-worst 12.7 yards per completion, allowing the likes of Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott to light them up this season.
Normally, this is a quick way to lose horribly against the Chiefs. Yet this season, Kansas City ranks only tied for 18th in yards per completion (10.4). Mahomes will need to take advantage.
Arizona Cardinals (1–5) at Seattle Seahawks (3–2)
Key matchup: Arizona’s ground game against Seattle’s front seven
This is a classic strength-on-strength situation. The Cardinals have been able to pound the ball on opponents, running for 5.3 yards per carry, second-best in football. Of course, the loss of James Conner matters.As for the Seahawks, they’ve permitted just 3.2 yards per carry, the best average in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (5–1) at Minnesota Vikings (2–4)
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Key matchup: Vikings’ blitzing scheme against Brock Purdy
Every week we talk about Minnesota’s incredible blitz rate under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. And there’s no reason to change now. The Vikings blitz 57.9% of the time, 14.5% more than any other team.
San Francisco has a host of weapons who can win quickly, including receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle.
