Week 6 got underway Thursday night, and the Chiefs easily dispensed of the Broncos, sinking just about any possibility Sean Payton and Russell Wilson had of making the playoffs. Denver is now 1–5, with its playoff odds hovering around 5%, according to Pro Football Focus (very early) projections.
People will always say that the NFL is a long season, but in reality, it is a series of microseasons that are only long for those teams capable of making it through the early stages unscathed. In this way, it really is analogous to a good footrace. For example: Latvia’s Agate Caune sprinted way ahead of the pack in this year’s track and field world championship and earned headlines for her brazenness. She represents the teams who start white hot but still contain what we would consider some element of instability (maybe the Dolphins). Then, there is the chase pack, full of racers who understand intimately the rigors of the distance ahead and are fully prepared (think: Eagles, Chiefs). Lastly, there is the group that drops off the back end before the race even gets interesting. This is a group lacking the tools to compete whatsoever. Even though it’s early in the race, we can count them out.
It’s that last group we’re talking about today. While it may seem counterintuitive to simply lop off a large segment of the league, it happens. So that we can get into some more interesting topics, though, I’ve broadened the parameters beyond just playoff chances.
Which teams have the most at stake in Week 6 generally? Playoff odds are a big part of the picture, but so, too, is the impending trade deadline, a team’s draft positioning, existing equity, coaching situation, and players who are either performing well or completely underperforming.
Let’s examine.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3–1)
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At stake: The Buccaneers, along with the Texans (2–3), are this year’s surprise upstarts. It is around this time that we find out whether a team’s hot start is simply the product of a generous schedule (Tampa Bay had the Vikings and Bears in the first three weeks) or whether they were simply overlooked. Contrary to my own preseason belief, this team was not built to fail. Baker Mayfield is fifth in a composite score of expected points added per play and completion percentage over expectation, two metrics that, when combined, paint an accurate picture of who is playing the position best at this moment. He is right behind … Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Just like we all expected.
This weekend, the Buccaneers take on the Lions (4–1), who are the second “real” team Tampa Bay has faced this season. Three weeks ago, the Buccaneers took on the Eagles, lost 25–11 and were outgained in terms of total yardage 472–174. The score was 25–3 until the midway point of the fourth quarter.
Let’s imagine that a similar fate awaits Tampa Bay this weekend, and the Lions club the Buccaneers. That would lead me to believe that the remainder of this season features two games that are very likely to be unwinnable (Bills on Oct. 26, 49ers on Nov. 19,), one game that is somewhat likely to result in a loss (the Jaguars on Christmas Eve) and six coin-flip games (Titans, Falcons twice, Colts, Packers, Saints). They also have two games against the Panthers remaining.
As Pro Football Focus noted, their model shows a 24% playoff chance reduction with a loss to the Lions. Beating Detroit puts them in a position of real strength. Losing puts the Buccaneers into a complete slog.
Trade deadline ramifications: This is where it gets worth talking about. The Buccaneers are not going to find themselves atop the draft board this year. There are a handful of teams already sinking more quickly. But they are chock full of valuable, tradable assets. Mike Evans is in the final year of his deal. Devin White, Antoine Winfield and Lavonte David are at the end of their respective contracts. Chris Godwin has one year remaining on his deal. Most everyone is talking about the Buccaneers as a contender. I saw the Falcons’ trade for Van Jefferson as a tool to hunt down Tampa Bay. And I think that is 80% true. In the NFL, wins and playoff appearances are the ultimate currency. The Buccaneers should be trying to do everything they can to win.
So, here we have this team fighting its way into the top 13–15 of the NFL. Could a pronounced loss to the Lions and kneecapped playoff odds convince it to get something more than compensatory selections for a slew of departing stars? Or could a win over the Lions convince it to get active and bolster the roster at the deadline? Maybe, like the Eagles, Tampa Bay will get some true golden years out of its eldest star players, and it will be one regenerative QB away from launching itself back into Super Bowl contention.
Atlanta Falcons (3–2)
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At stake: The Falcons take on the highly volatile and unpredictable Commanders this weekend in Atlanta. The matchup clearly favors the Falcons, whose Ryan Nielsen–led defense is seventh in the NFL against the pass and is talented enough to clip the lifeblood of Washington’s attack. Ron Rivera, though, has taken both of his most recent matchups against Arthur Smith.
The stakes are somewhat dependent on what the Buccaneers do as we mentioned above. If both of these teams lose, next week’s head-to-head matchup becomes a little more predictive as to the future of the NFC South. But the Falcons have a clear advantage here: a game against an inferior opponent and their division rival playing a clearly superior opponent.
While it may seem like a bit of an overreaction, the NFC South is going to be exhausting for teams this year. Most of these clubs specialize in some kind of bludgeoning, especially when you lump the Saints into the fold. New Orleans probably has the most resources and depth at hand to make an actual playoff run this year. Falling to .500 with the Tampa Bay game a week away could interrupt what I feel is Atlanta’s one true path to the playoffs: Clean up over the next few weeks against the softest part of their schedule. After Washington and Tampa Bay, the Falcons have games against the Titans, Cardinals and Vikings. Rolling into a post-Thanksgiving matchup with the Saints with seven or eight wins is a lot different from fighting through the quicksand slog with everyone else.
Trade deadline ramifications: I think the Falcons have already shown an interest in strategically adding some pieces. Another victory should only continue to encourage them to double down. While I am a huge fan of Arthur Smith, the reality is that he is working through the third year of his contract and has yet to reach the postseason. While the Falcons have a sizable free-agent class next year, I do not see them as active sellers even with a loss, unless, of course, someone such as Calais Campbell is coveted as a kind of capstone piece for a team that will assuredly make a playoff appearance.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3–2)
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At stake: The Jaguars have a massive trap game this weekend against the upstart Colts (3–2), who will be starting Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Minshew, who started two games for the Eagles at the end of last season, was more than serviceable with Shane Steichen running the offense in Philadelphia. He is absolutely capable of winning a big game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense has been O.K. but has not peaked. I would imagine that we’d see something of a minor crisis envelop the Jaguars if they fall a game behind the Colts. Their schedule from here on out features a lot of games against teams I feel are uniquely set up to play well against them—the Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Texans and 49ers. Some of those opponents’ strengths are obvious, but I think any team with an elite defense that can both rush the passer effectively and unpredictably, and keep the ball out of Trevor Lawrence’s hands will be a difficult matchup for Jacksonville. While their late-season run in 2022 came against a handful of teams like we referenced (Jets, Ravens, Cowboys, etc.), a lot of those wins came when those teams’ accompanying offenses were weakened. So they need to build themselves a cushion this time, especially since the Colts and Titans seem like they are not going anywhere.
Trade deadline ramifications: The Jaguars are worth watching at the deadline because they are in “win-now” mode and, I feel, may need a few more veteran players to help steer their roster in the right direction. Jacksonville was the youngest team in the NFL three years ago and started this season as the 10th youngest. There will be plenty of veteran talent to pick off at the deadline this year, and Jacksonville has a full complement of 2024 picks, including two additional sixth-round picks and an additional third-round selection.
New York Jets (2–3)
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At stake: The Jets have some serious emotional equity at stake in this game against the Eagles. While sinking from 2–3 to 2–4 is difficult optically, I don’t think it matters as much as having a capable offensive performance against a defensive unit that could easily rip Zach Wilson apart if the game gets away from the Jets early. Right now, the Jets are building a kind of house of cards. Robert Saleh has done an incredible job rallying the clubhouse around Wilson after watching the team abandon Wilson for Mike White a year ago. But, ultimately, this strategy will go only so far as Wilson and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett take it. The Eagles were a Super Bowl contender last year thanks to their versatile defense. This unit has everything and can match up well with anyone. The Jets will obviously try to turn this into a crawl through the briar patch. If this game ends without a catastrophic Wilson mistake and within seven points, I think it propels them into three consecutive games against softer defenses such as the Raiders, Giants and Chargers. I think if the Jets are bulldozed, we’re close to assembling the white flag pole.
Trade deadline ramifications: Because the Jets are hoping to get Aaron Rodgers back at the tail end of this season or next season, there is no sense in blowing up the roster, though a loss here could make someone such as Dalvin Cook, a 2024 free agent, expendable. Next year’s free-agent running back class is solid, and if the Jets are going to reload again for Rodgers and still feel they need a Breece Hall safety net, Cook isn’t the only option.
Carolina Panthers (0–5)
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At stake: I think this is largely a game of optics for Carolina. But I do know that owner David Tepper was infatuated with some other coaches during his search last year, and that he also has other potential head coaches on his staff. While I’m not pegging Frank Reich as a one-and-done candidate, I am outlining the complicating factors of this plummeting team, the first of which is a very good defensive staff and a few upstart young assistants on offense. This doesn’t even begin to get us to the 2024 NFL draft in which the Panthers don’t have a selection until the second round. And, we’ve yet to touch the Bryce Young situation.
My thought is that Miami is a particularly bad opponent for the Panthers to take on this week. This is a team that put up 70 points in a game this season and has the ability to not only beat opponents but also embarrass them. I would imagine that, even for a small-market franchise, falling winless while other rookie quarterbacks in the same draft have performed well is going to begin to dig this version of a team a hole too steep to get out of. I am of the mind that Young is getting better every week, and the play-calling against Detroit was the best it’s been all season. I am also of the mind that there will be some point where ownership wants to see major progress. Let’s look at the bright side: Upsetting Miami changes the emotional weather in Carolina instantly.
Trade deadline ramifications: This team is at a severe talent deficit. Trading someone such as Brian Burns would only further hamper the Panthers’ ability to field a competitive team around Young. However, trading Burns would potentially get the Panthers back into the tail end of the first round, where they could start to maneuver for better pieces. Would a complete blowout at the hands of the Dolphins further encourage Tepper to open up a second consecutive fire sale? Or, would the thought of having Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore for Young, and how much better life could be in that scenario, make him reticent to part with more talent?
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