In the 2022 NFL season, no lead is safe.
Per NFL Research, there have been 23 games decided by a game-winning touchdown within the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime this season, the third-most such games in the first six weeks of a season in pro football history. Only 2021 (25 games) and 2012 (24) have more.
There have been 18 games in which a team overcame a deficit of at least 10 points to win or tie this season, tied for the fourth-most such games through Week 6. Only 2020 (19 games), 2011 (19) and 1987 (19) have more.
12 of 14 games in Week 6 were within one score (eight points) in the fourth quarter. There have been 73 games within one score in the fourth quarter and 57 games decided by one score, both the most such games through the first six weeks in pro football history.
On Sunday, the Indianapolis Colts overcame an 11-point deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cincinnati Bengals overcame a 10-point deficit to beat the New Orleans Saints. The New York Giants overcame a 10-point deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens. The Giants have now won three games this season in which they had a deficit of 10 or more points, and the Ravens have now lost three games in which they once had a double-digit lead.
On Sunday night, the Philadelphia Eagles got out to a 20-0 lead against the Dallas Cowboys, and had to hang on for dear life after Dallas came back to make the score 20-17. And on Monday night, the Los Angeles Chargers overcame a 10-point deficit to beat the Denver Broncos in overtime.
More than ever, teams are turning seemingly certain losses into wins, and vice versa. With all that volatility going on, here’s how all 32 NFL teams measure up in our Week 6 power rankings.
32. Carolina Panthers (1-5)
(Last Week: No. 32)
It appears that the Panthers’ dysfunction wasn’t just about Matt Rhule, who was mercifully fired on October 10. Since that move, every player with any talent on the roster has been the subject of fire sale trade rumors, and one of those players, receiver Robbie Anderson, was kicked off the field (and subsequently traded to the Cardinals) in a 24-10 loss to the Rams after Anderson got into it with his receivers coach and interim head coach Steve Wilks. This team is a fluke victory over the Saints from being winless, and it’s tough to see how things will get better for Wilks in the short term, and whoever replaced Wilks in the long term.
31. Chicago Bears (2-4)
(Last Week: No. 23)
The Bears have lost three straight games, and have struggled to put a competent offense on the field — especially in the passing game. Thursday night’s 12-7 loss to the Commanders, finished off by three straight unsuccessful passes from the opposing four-yard line (yes, the refs did miss a DPI call on third-and-goal), showed just how out of sorts Justin Fields is in Luke Getsy’s offense. Head coach Matt Eberflus is on the verge of a lost season with perhaps the NFL’s least-talented offensive line and receiver corps, receiver Darnell Mooney excepted.
30. Washington Commanders (2-4)
(Last week: No. 31)
Yes, the Commanders did manage a 12-7 win over the Bears on Thursday night, but between even more off-field stuff for the league’s most dysfunctional franchise, and the finger injury that could keep Carson Wentz out for multiple weeks, is there any doubt that this franchise will keep circling the drain in every capacity as long as Daniel Snyder owns the team?
29. Detroit Lions (1-4)
(Last week: No. 31)
The Lions are coming off their bye, which means only that some opponent won’t have to beat them and then talk after the game about how feisty they are, and how close they were to winning. It’s a common theme in the Dan Campbell era, but eventually, this team will have to turn moral victories into actual ones. Campbell is now 4-17-1 as the Lions’ head coach, and while there’s potential here, when does that finally pay off? Probably not against a highly-agitated Dallas Cowboys team, burning after what the Eagles did to them on Sunday night.
28. Houston Texans (1-3-1)
(Last week: No. 29)
The Texans are also coming off their bye, which means that Lovie Smith and his staff had an extra week to put things together in preparation for next Sunday’s WTF-fest against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Texans have some great young talent; it just hasn’t come together on the field in ways that transfer into wins. But there’s some things to like here, especially on defense, with rookie defensive backs Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
(Last week: No. 26)
Hey, look! Another one-win team coming off a bye! In the case of the 1-4 Raiders, there’s more than enough talent on offense for a better record, and the 125-130 point total for Josh McDaniels’ team and its opponents tell the other side of the story — the defense is not doing its part for the most part. And that’s with the terrifying pass-rushing duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Next Sunday’s game against the Texans and its Dameon Pierce-led offense will tell us how ready this team is to live up to its potential.
26. Cleveland Browns (2-4)
(Last week: No. 24)
Since we’re on the subject of teams with all the horses on offense, and no clue what to do on defense… there’s the matter of the Browns, who have scored 148 points this season (only the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens have scored more), and allowed 163 points (tied with the Seahawks, only the Lions are worse in this regard). Sunday’s 38-15 loss to the Patriots was par for the course — the Browns allowed New England rookie backup Bailey Zappe to look like a young Tom Brady, and when New England’s defense stepped up to wreck Kevin Stefanski’s offense, there was no answer on the other side of the ball.
25. Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
(Last week: No. 18)
The Cardinals are officially in freefall after their 19-9 loss to the Seahawks. They’ve lost three of their last four games, their point differential of -28 is the NFL’s fifth-worst, and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is nothing if not predictable. There’s a short week to get ready for the Saints’ defense on Thursday night, and though the team can now activate receiver DeAndre Hopkins after his si-game suspension for six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy, it’s questionable just how much that will help. Trading for the aforementioned Robbie Anderson won’t be anything more than a Band-Aid, given Marquise Brown’s fractured foot, and at this point, you have to wonder if Kingsbury is on the hot seat, despite the contract extension he signed in March.
24. Denver Broncos (2-4)
Denver’s previously horrid Russell Wilson-led offense wasn’t entirely goof-proof against the Chargers on Monday night, but it was certainly spicy at times.
Russell Wilson started #MondayNightFootball with 9 straight completions … to 9 different players.
Since 1991, when play by play data was first recorded, he is the first player to complete his first 9 pass attempts of a game to 9 different receivers.@Broncos | #BroncosCountry
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 18, 2022
Wilson completed 10 of 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter, using bootlegs and scramble drills to keep L.A.’s defense honest and to give him time to allow the Chargers’ coverages to bust (which they’ve done too often this season). Of course, after the first quarter and through overtime in a 19-16 loss, Wilson completed five of 18 passes for 71 yards. Denver’s defense couldn’t hold up, special teams (a muffed punt return) created the Chargers’ game-winning field goal, and Wilson will be answering all the same questions he was answering before.
23. New Orleans Saints (2-4)
(Last week: No. 25)
As long as Jameis Winston is on the bench due to various injuries, the Saints are in a holding pattern unless Taysom Hill can go Full Metal Wildcat, or Andy Dalton can avoid his more rogue tendencies. Neither of those things happened in New Orleans’ 30-26 loss to the Bengals — Dalton completed 17 of 32 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown, and Hill completed two of four passes for 16 yards, and ran the ball five times for 39 yards. That left things up to Dennis Allen’s defense, and that defense has not been what it was.
22. Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
(Last week: No. 28)
Atlanta’s 28-14 upset win over the 49ers on Sunday gave us a fascinating glimpse into head coach Arthur Smith’s idea of offensive symmetry. The Falcons ran the ball 40 times for 168 yards and a touchdown — that’s what going up 14-0 early will allow you to do — and quarterback Marcus Mariota was ruthlessly efficient with his limited opportunities. Mariota completed 13 of 14 pass attempts (92.9% completion rate) and had three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) in the win.
Per NFL Research, Mariota became the third player in NFL history to record at least two touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and a completion percentage of 90-or-higher (minimum 10 attempts) in a single game, joining Ryan Fitzpatrick (September 24, 2020) and Frank Ryan (December 12, 1964).
All of a sudden, a Falcons team that was purported to have one of the NFL’s worst rosters, and no chance to be competitive, is confusing the doubters.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
(Last week: No. 20)
It’s tough to remember now, but the Jaguars were the toast of the NFL after the first three games of the season, when they held a 2-1 record. Doug Pederson has changed the culture! Trevor Lawrence is fixed! The defense is amazing! All of those things are still true in fits and starts, but the Jags have now lost three straight winnable games after Sunday’s 34-27 defeat at the hands of the Colts. That defense wasn’t able to sack Matt Ryan once, despite Indy’s problematic offensive line, Lawrence was efficient but hardly explosive, and this team is now on a backslide. That they face the Giants next Sunday really doesn’t help.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4)
(Last week: No. 22)
This sentence would have made no sense through most of the last two decades, but the Steelers were lucky to have faced Tom Brady with just about all of their starting secondary lost to injury. And after Kenny Pickett was ruled out due to a concussion, the Steelers were also fortunate to have Mitch Trubisky face a Buccaneers defense that has been less than spectacular this season. That was the source of Pittsburgh’s 20-18 win, and we’ll see if Mike Tomlin’s team can continue its rebound against the Dolphins next Sunday.
19. Miami Dolphins (3-3)
(Last week: No. 19)
The Dolphins lost 24-16 to the Dolphins on Sunday, but instead of getting into the particulars of that, I would like to know why Miami left tackle Greg Little was allowed to stay in the game for the entire game — he tied for the lead by participating in all 78 of Miami’s offensive snaps — despite the fact that he clearly showed the effects of head trauma after he was inadvertently kicked in the head by Minnesota linebacker Eric Kendricks.
This is the play just after the play detailed below. Little blocks Eric Kendricks, and after the play is over, he’s standing still and still shaking his head. https://t.co/CcJ2ybIoYU pic.twitter.com/2LOTkmN8et
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 16, 2022
Given the Dolphins’ issues with concussions this season, and the fact that the NFL appeared to go out of its way to revise the concussion protocol after that, one wonders how this was allowed to get by.
18. Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1)
(Last week: No. 15)
Matt Ryan was clearly fired up after the Colts’ 34-27 win over the Jaguars. Perhaps it was because Ryan wasn’t sacked once after suffering 21 takedowns in the first five weeks of the season, tied with Matthew Stafford for the most in the NFL. Perhaps it was because receiver Michael Pittman Jr. had a monster game, with 13 catches on 16 targets for 134 yards. Whatever it was, this game showed how well Ryan can still perform against an above-average defense when the pressure is on him to perform.
Ryan completed 42 of 58 (!) passes — the second-most he’s attempted in a game in his 15-year career — for 389 yards and three touchdowns. Not the way you want to roll every week, but with Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines both out for the moment, you might see a similar paradigm when the Colts take on the Titans next Sunday. You can also look for more no-huddle, as both Ryan and head coach Frank Reich talked after the game about what a difference that made.
17. San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
(Last week: No. 14)
Injuries are starting to catch up to Kyle Shanahan’s offense and DeMeco Ryans’ defense, which is how a team that looked like a Super Bowl contender early in the season laid a brontosaurus egg at the hands of the Falcons in a 28-14 loss. We all know how talented this team is when everybody is healthy, but when will that be — and can Jimmy Garoppolo avoid those crushing mistakes (two interceptions) if and when that happens?
16. Green Bay Packers (3-3)
(Last week: No. 10)
With consecutive losses to the Giants and the Jets, the Packers have now experienced two straight defeats for the first time in the Matt LaFleur era, which goes back to 2019. More disconcerting? How Green Bay’s offense looked in Sunday’s 27-10 beatdown at the hands of Gang Green. Aaron Rodgers was set upon just about constantly, Green Bay had just four drives of more than 29 yards, and on the other side of the ball, Joe Barry’s defense did very little to stop the Jets’ offense — which, of course, is run by Mike LaFleur, brother of Green Bay’s head coach. The elder LaFleur has a get-well game against the Commanders before traveling to Buffalo, which will be a major YIKES game for this team if they’re playing at this level in Week 8.
15. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
(Last week: 13)
The Rams did eke out a 24-10 win over the sad Panthers on Sunday, but it was far from conclusive. Matthew Stafford’s pick-six to cornerback Donte Jackson in the first half put Carolina up, 10-7, and it was only in the second half that Sean McVay’s offense looked anything like Sean McVay’s offense. The loss of left tackle Joe Noteboom for the rest of the season to a torn Achilles tendon makes a shaky offensive line even shakier, and this defense won’t have Ben McAdoo and a bunch of backup quarterbacks to kick around every week. The defending Super Bowl champs get a bye next week; then they have to face a 49ers team that booted them around the block in Week 4.
14. New England Patriots (3-3)
(Last week: No. 16)
Bill Belichick tied George Halas, trailing only Don Shula, for the most wins by any pro football head coach in history when the Patriots thwacked the Browns, 38-15. Moreover, Belichick has put another stellar defense on the field — and this is the same defense we all said had no cornerbacks before the season began. On offense, Mac Jones’ ankle injury has allowed the Patriots to unleash rookie fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe from Western Kentucky. Zappe put up video game numbers in college, but was thought to be a noodle-armed spread quarterback. It wasn’t really true in college (he threw 17 touchdowns of 20 or more air yards in 2021), and it isn’t true at the NFL level. Zappe completed both of his deep attempts for 50 yards against the Browns, and he made several tight-window throws downfield.
*bailey zappe raised eyebrow dot gif* pic.twitter.com/BmC5WPYU3I
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 17, 2022
Not to say that Jones is the next Drew Bledsoe… but let’s just say that it’s good to have a solid backup quarterback. Whichever of these two gentlemen it might be.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
(Last week: No. 12)
Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is rightfully regarded as one of the originators of modern coverage in the Vic Fangio style, but there are times when you have to adjust to your players. Staley’s defense came into Monday night’s game against the Broncos ranked 26th in Defensive DVOA and 19th against the pass, and it’s really affecting cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was abused by Russell Wilson and his receivers in this game. Wilson’s 39-yard touchdown pass to tight end Greg Dulcich was one such example — Jackson (No. 27) was playing off, and appeared to blow the assignment, leaving Dulcich wide open.
Greg Dulcich with a TD in his first NFL quarter! @Greg_Dulcich
📺: #DENvsLAC on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/mKmqBgUsbz pic.twitter.com/LogAZpUEKs— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2022
The Chargers signed Jackson to a five-year, $82.5 million contract this offseason, and so far, it’s been a disaster. With the Patriots, Jackson was a dead-red man press cornerback, and he’s doing all kinds of things he’s not used to doing. Jackson was replaced by Michael Davis in the second half, which is certainly interesting.
J.C. Jackson opponent passer rating allowed:
2018 — 60.2
2019 — 35.9
2020 — 62.7
2021 — 52.4
2022 — 149.0— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 18, 2022
The moral, as it always is, and certainly is even after the Chargers’ 19-16 overtime win: Tailor your schemes to your players.
12. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)
(Last week: No. 27)
From 2016 through 2021, the Seahawks’ draft classes were average at best and fireable at worst. So it’s interesting that head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider, the same guys in charge of those drafts, have absolutely hit dinger after dinger out of the park in 2022. Multiple draft picks — offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, and running back Kenneth Walker III — showed up with authority in Seattle’s 19-9 win over the Cardinals. Cross and Lucas combined for one sack and three pressures allowed, Woolen got his league-leading fourth interception, Bryant got his league-leading fourth forced fumble, and Walker ran 21 times for 97 yards and a touchdown.
Against the Cardinals, six different defenders sacked Kyler Murray, which is great news for a defense that had been struggling (to put it mildly) through the first five weeks.
11. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
(Last week: No. 5)
Remember what we said in the intro about no lead being safe in today’s NFL? You don’t have to tell John Harbaugh.
Per ESPN, there have been 39 teams to hold a double-digit lead in each of its first six games of a season. The 2022 Ravens are the only such team in pro football history not to have a winning record. Their 24-20 loss to the Giants on Sunday marked the third time this season that Baltimore has blown a double-digit lead, and for all the talent on this roster, that’s just not acceptable. Baltimore’s last two drives against the Giants ended in turnovers — a Lamar Jackson interception and a Lamar Jackson sack/fumble — and this has to be thought of as more than a fluke at this point. If the Ravens can’t close out games, they can kiss any serious postseason run goodbye.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
(Last week: No. 4)
It’s never a good sign when your GOAT quarterback is yelling at his offensive line on the sideline during a game, and it’s never a good sign when said quarterback says after a game, “I think we’re all playing less than what we’re capable of and we’ve all got look at ourselves in the mirror and figure out why.”
But that’s where the Buccaneers are after their 20-18 loss to the Steelers. Todd Bowles’ defense had no real answers for Matt Canada’s reductive offense, and Tampa Bay’s offense remains staid, undynamic, ad easy to stop. The Bucs have lost three of their last four games after a 2-0 start, and it’s clear that the questions are coming from everywhere.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
(Last week: No. 9)
The Bengals’ 30-26 win over the Saints on Sunday may have been the first time this season where Zac Taylor’s offense opened anything up at all for Joe Burrow. Cincinnati’s franchise quarterback completed 28 of 37 passes for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase got himself off the milk carton with seven catches on 10 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns, and Joe Mixon had 45 yards on eight carries… which is at least a step in the right direction. Taylor and his staff are finally using more coverage beaters instead of just throwing a couple of playbook pages on the field and hoping for the best. Given the ways in which Cincinnati’s defense has played this season, it’s not too late for the Bengals to go on another unexpected run.
It's easy to forget if you've watched the Bengals' "offense" this season, but yes, Ja'Marr Chase is still ridiculous. There were some schematic improvements against the Saints. pic.twitter.com/8YebDazp8u
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 17, 2022
8. Tennessee Titans (3-2)
(Last week: No. 8)
The Titans had a Week 6 bye, so they stay where they were in our power rankings. When they return to the field, they’ll face the Colts and Texans, which could give them a leg up in the AFC and in the AFC South. Then, they have the Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, and Bengals in November, and they get into December with games against the Eagles, Jaguars, and Chargers.
7. Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
(Last week: No. 6)
It’s hard to know what to make of the Vikings in 2022, precisely because their performances have been so spiky on both sides of the ball. Sunday’s 24-16 win over the Dolphins was yet another example. Miami started third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson with Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater in the league’s concussion protocol, and had to throw Bridgewater out there after Thompson got hurt. The Vikings had a 16-3 lead at one point, but let the Dolphins back in the door, and that shouldn’t happen for a team with a 5-1 record that accurately reflects performance on the field.
The Vikings now have a bye to figure a few things out, then easy games against the Cardinals and Commanders. Week 10’s game at Buffalo will be a much tougher test, and will tell us a lot about where this team really is.
6. New York Jets (4-2)
(Last week: No. 17)
Three New York teams in the top six? Indeed. The Jets made it after taking the floundering Packers apart in a 27-10 statement game that made two declarations: The Packers are in huge trouble, and the Jets are on the way up — perhaps before anybody really expected them to be. The run game, led by rookie Breece Hall, was dominant, the defense was killer all the way, and it’s clear that this team has taken the positive, aggressive personality of head coach Robert Saleh. If quarterback Zach Wilson can maintain some sort of consistency, the postseason (something the Jets haven’t seen since 2010) might be more than a fever dream.
5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
(Last week: No. 7)
The Cowboys showed a lot of grit in coming back from a 20-0 halftime deficit against the Eagles in Philadelphia to make Sunday night’s 26-17 game competitive, but even with Dan Quinn’s masterful defense, you have to do a lot to overcome three interceptions from your quarterback, which is the challenge Cooper Rush presented to his team. We can now thankfully put to rest any talk of a quarterback competition between Rush and Dak Prescott, and hope that Dak will be back in the fold sooner than later. Because this team with any kind of above-average quarterback (and a healthy Prescott is far more than that) will be a major problem for any opponent.
4. New York Giants (5-1)
(Last week: No. 11)
Yeah, it’s completely time to take the Giants seriously. The difference in quality of head coach between Joe Judge and Brian Daboll couldn’t be more stark in the team’s current favor, and the ways in which Daboll has deferred to offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale means that Daboll can run the whole thing, without the micromanagement so common to first-time head coaches. In Sunday’s 24-20 win over the Ravens, the Giants were outgained 406-238 yards, and Baltimore had 23 first downs to New York’s 18, but between Martindale’s pressure packages, and an efficient offense, it was enough to come away with an impressive win. It’s early yet, but Daboll is going to have a lot of Coach of the Year smoke around his name at this rate.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (4-2)
(Last week: No. 2)
Should we be sounding alarm bells about the Chiefs after their 24-20 loss to the Bills? Not really. This game could have gone either way, the team’s other loss was a “burn the tape” fluke defeat at the hands of the Colts, and Patrick Mahomes has, for the most part, learned to beat the coverages that previously befuddled him. The only lasting effect of the loss to Buffalo is that the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC might now go through upstate New York, and not the nation’s heartland.
2. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
(Last Week: No. 3)
The Bills made the statement they needed to make against the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon in a 24-20 win — they got as much revenge as they could for last year’s divisional-round heartbreaker, they established themselves as the Big Dogs in the AFC without question, and with the offseason addition of Von Miller, they proved that there’s no further issue with the pass rush. The offensive line and run game are minor issues, and you’d like them to be a bit healthier in the secondary, but if all that stuff works itself out, the Bills could very well be the Super Bowl winner every fan has dreamed of for generations.
1. Philadelphus Eagles (6-0)
(Last week: No. 1)
Give the Cowboys credit — they caught the Eagles playing with their food for a while on Sunday night, especially after right tackle Lane Johnson (the best in the business) left with a concussion. Philly had a 20-0 first-half lead, looking every bit the dominant team they’re supposed to be, and then, things got a little weird. But then, the Eagles went on a 15-play, 93-yard, 7:07 minute drive to cement things, and once again, they looked like the Broad Street Bullies with a 26-17 win. As long as Johnson’s okay, the offense will be fine, and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s two interceptions proved once again what a valuable trade addition he was on the other side of the ball.
Would the current Eagles beat the Bills or the Chiefs? We may have to wait until the Super Bowl to find out. But as the NFL’s only undefeated team, they once again earn their place atop our rankings.
