How about the NFL’s backup quarterbacks? If there’s one general rule I’ll take away from Week 4 of the season, it’s to simply stop overreacting to teams forced to roll out a backup.
We already know what Cooper Rush has done for the Cowboys, going 4-0 in his chances to play. But the Patriots also got good enough performances from Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe to push the Packers to the brink of a loss. And Andy Dalton almost beat the Vikings in London. All three teams covered their spreads. The Giants also covered, and they played without a QB for a short period. The public heavily backed the spread of teams playing against backups, but those guys are keeping their teams in games.
Here are a few more takeaways from Week 4.
Always bet against the Colts in the first half...
The Colts fell to 1-2-1 with another disappointing loss Sunday, this time to the the Titans. Indy is now 0-2-1 in a division it was supposed to dominate this season. One of the team’s myriad issues is getting off to slow starts. The Colts are 0-4 and being outscored 65-23 in the first half of games this year (they’re 3-1 in second halves).
...And bet against Tennessee in the second half
Second-half betting isn’t available everywhere, but for those who can put some money on the Titans to lose against a second-half spread or contribute to a second half under, it’s a real trend. Even in their win over Indy, the Titans went scoreless in the second half — for a third straight game. On the season, they’re being outscored 64-7.
Cowboys weathered the storm
When Dak Prescott went down with an injury in Dallas’ Week 1 loss to the Bucs, it looked like the beginning of the end of the Cowboys season. But as we approach their targeted Week 5 return for Prescott, the team is riding a three-game winning streak and exceeding all expectations. The Eagles are still a strong pick to win the NFC East, but Dallas can’t be ruled out. And +350 odds at BetMGM are great.
Patrick Mahomes is the MVP right now
While Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen slugged it out Sunday in a game many thought featured the two MVP front-runners, Patrick Mahomes had his way with a Bucs defense thought to be pretty good. His +500 MVP odds are still just second-shortest behind Allen at +300, but they won’t do anything but get shorter the more he keeps this up. Mahomes has a league-best 82.4 QBR, his 11 passing touchdowns are tied with Jackson for the league-lead, and his two interceptions are fewer than both Jackson and Allen.
Lions overs are a lock
Down two of their best playmakers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift, the Detroit Lions still found a way to score 45 points. And with that many points on the scoreboard, they still found a way to lose — to the Seahawks. The Lions can score, but they can’t stop anybody. Their games have hit the over 100% of the time this season, and that’s a pretty good bet to continue until the defense is fixed.
Falcons rushing props
The Falcons were 31st in the NFL in rushing yards last season, averaging just 85.4 yards per game. Their 3.7 yards per carry ranked 30th. Through four games this season, they’re fourth in the NFL with 168 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. The unexpected turnaround in their rushing attack brings tremendous value to the rushing props of players like Cordarrelle Patterson, who’s on pace for his first career 1,000-yard season.
