For some teams, it’s time to prepare for the playoffs. For others, there’s one week left to make a move.
And for a few, it’s mock draft season. Of those afterthoughts, plenty need to either hone in on a first-round quarterback or at least consider the notion, knowing their current starter isn’t worthy of playing for a playoff hopeful come autumn.
Taking a realistic look, at least a quarter of the NFL should be in this mode. The Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons are no-brainers, in dire need of an immediate upgrade. Then there’s the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals, who can argue either way.
Finally, there’s the dark horses for an early quarterback pick. And in this year’s class, there will be options.
Most around the league believe Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are sure-fire, top-three picks. Then there’s Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, who should be a top-10 choice. Beyond that trio, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy are all intriguing options (if not for Day 1, then certainly in the second day).
In the meantime, let’s look at our final NFL quarterback rankings of the season.
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32. All Their Quarterbacks, New York Jets (Last week: 32)
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Speaking of intriguing quarterback situations for 2024, there are few higher on the list than this one.
The Jets have Aaron Rodgers signed for next season, and then at 41 years old, he’s slated to become a free agent. Behind him is nothing of note, with Zach Wilson likely to be moving on this offseason.
For general manager Joe Douglas, the pivotal question is: Should New York draft a quarterback in the first round?
While Rodgers would certainly prefer an offensive lineman or another weapon, the Jets might be best-served to find the quarterback’s replacement instead. This is a loaded class, and New York desperately needs to identify a plan that extends beyond the next 17 games.
31. Easton Stick, Los Angeles Chargers (31)
30. Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos (N/A)
29. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots (26)
28. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (28)
27. Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings (N/A)
26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (25)
25. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers (27)
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Rudolph finds himself in a terrific position. Taking over for Mitchell Trubisky with the Steelers floundering at 7–7, Rudolph has led the team to a pair of wins over the Bengals and Seahawks, putting Pittsburgh in playoff contention.
This Saturday, Rudolph will head to Baltimore for a Week 18 clash with the Ravens. If the Steelers win, and the Bills lose on Sunday night to the Dolphins, Pittsburgh miraculously gets into the postseason as a wild card.
While nobody is confusing Rudolph’s performance with someone about to get a starting gig in 2024, he suddenly appears to be a viable backup. In his two wins this season, Rudolph has thrown for 567 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
For Rudolph, what once appeared like a career about to end might just be starting for the 28-year-old.
24. Tyrod Taylor, New York Giants (24)
23. Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals (23)
22. Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta Falcons (22)
21. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders (19)
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There have been times this season when Howell has led the league in passing yardage. Now, he’s a quarterback who has been benched. And with a new regime coming in this offseason, it’s hard to envision him seriously fighting for the starting job next summer.
This season, Howell got a chance to start and threw 20 touchdowns against 19 interceptions. The Commanders are also 4–12, and if they lose to the Cowboys this weekend, will have the second pick in April’s draft. That means a certainty of either Maye or Williams being on the board.
Should that scenario play out, Howell becomes an interesting trade chip. Would Washington try to flip the quarterback and the remaining two years on his contract for a draft pick or two, or keep him as cheap insurance?
20. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (N/A)
19. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts (20)
18. Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns (18)
17. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (17)
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The topic around Chicago sports is almost entirely the future of Fields. Is he going to be retained or traded?
For general manager Ryan Poles, it’s a nuanced situation. The Bears are 7–9 with a game to go, a significantly better situation than the 3–14 debacle from 2023. With coach Matt Eberflus safe, it makes sense on the surface to keep Fields, use the No. 1 pick to get a hoard of draft choices, and build around the ‘21 first-rounder.
However, Fields isn’t a sure thing. In 12 games, he’s thrown for 2,414 yards on 6.8 yards per attempt with 16 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. On the ground, he amassed 630 yards and four scores. Statistically, he’s either about the same or slightly worse than a year ago, with all factors considered.
All this brings us to the financial aspect of Poles’s choice. Fields is eligible for an extension after the season. The Bears will eventually have to pay him $45+ million per year, and if they don’t, that will be because Fields shrivels and the idea of keeping him as the starter was a disaster. By drafting Williams or Maye, Chicago resets its cap clock, while also getting draft capital for Fields.
It’s a tough call, but the smart move is likely trading Fields.
16. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (15)
15. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (13)
14. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (14)
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The Saints can’t be thrilled with how this season has played out.
Barring a shocking Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the two-win Panthers on Sunday, or a host of fortunate outcomes elsewhere, New Orleans is going home for the winter.
When the Saints signed Carr to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, the thought was New Orleans would become the best NFC South team with upside. Instead, it remains a team saddled with an absurd cap sheet and no relief in sight, while Carr enters 2024 at 33 years old.
Should the Saints decide to part ways with coach Dennis Allen, there’s a scenario in which New Orleans begins hitting the reset button. If they trade Carr post–June 1, the Saints gain $30 million in cap savings and eat only $5 million in dead money.
The most-likely world is Carr sticking around for one more season, but it’s not impossible for New Orleans to move on.
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10)
12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (12)
11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (8)
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This season has been tough on Hurts at times, and certainly down the stretch.
Fighting injuries throughout large chunks of the year, Hurts has seen his numbers fall off sharply from his 2022 All-Pro campaign. After throwing only six interceptions then, he’s tossed 14 this year. Hurts also has 15 rushing touchdowns in ’23, but his yards per carry average has dropped to a measly 3.9.
Although Hurts’ stats are down, he’s certainly not the main reason Philadelphia is struggling. That mantle goes to the defense, which allowed a stunning 29 points in four second-half possessions to the Cardinals in last week’s defeat.
Ultimately, if the Eagles are going anywhere but home in the playoffs, they need Hurts to be great, and they need the defense to do something. Right now, neither seems likely.
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (7)
9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (N/A)
8. C.J Stroud, Houston Texans (N/A)
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Stroud has been brilliant this season, and is the chief reason Houston is looking at a playoff berth should it beat the Colts in Indianapolis this weekend.
Despite missing two games with a concussion, Stroud has thrown for 3,844 yards with 21 touchdowns against five interceptions. Last week, the 2023 No. 2 pick led the Texans to a 26–3 win over the Titans with 213 yards and a score.
If the Texans get to the postseason, they’ll have a chance in any game with Stroud at the controls. He’s already one of the league’s 10 best quarterbacks. Even without Tank Dell, Houston has a cache of weapons including receivers Nico Collins and Noah Brown, tight end Dalton Schultz and others.
Regardless of whether the Texans find their way into the playoffs, this has been a phenomenal year for both quarterback and team.
7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (9)
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (6)
5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (5)
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (3)
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Allen will face a season-defining test on Sunday night in Miami.
Beat the Dolphins, and everything is great. The Bills are the AFC’s No. 2 seed, and Allen is at the controls of a contender. Lose to the Dolphins, and there’s a real chance Buffalo misses the playoffs entirely (with wins by the Steelers and Jaguars).
While the Bills are on a four-game winning streak, Allen has been uneven. Over that stretch, Buffalo needed a last-minute field goal to beat the Stick-led Chargers. Last weekend, the Patriots were down a score with the ball in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium, despite four first-half turnovers.
In those aforementioned four games, Allen has thrown for 734 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also completed just 55.5% of his attempts in that stretch.
If the Bills are going to beat the Dolphins and win the AFC East, Allen must be at his best.
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (4)
