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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Kyle Wood

NFL Week 18 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

NFL Bills Buffalo (Organization) Jacksonville (Organization) Texans CJ Stroud Dolphins Jaguars Josh Allen Tennessee (Organization)

It’s been a season filled with surprises, but not many are surprised about the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins meeting in Week 18 with the AFC East title on the line.

Some refused to write off the Bills when they entered their bye week with a 6–6 record because of the talent they have around quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills proved those right and are now taking a four-game winning streak to South Florida.

But not many had faith in the Dolphins to clinch before the final week of the regular season because of their reputation of losing against the top teams. Miami can end that narrative by upsetting Buffalo. (The Dolphins are home underdogs, an example of what people think of them.)

Rookie sensation C.J. Stroud will make his prime-time debut Saturday night when his Houston Texans clash with the Indianapolis Colts for a loser-goes-home matchup. (Technically, a tie can open other paths to a playoff spot, but loser goes home sounds way better.)

The rest of the Week 18 slate doesn’t have as much on the line, but the Jacksonville Jaguars need to handle business against the Tennessee Titans to take the AFC South. Also, the Green Bay Packers need a win vs. the Chicago Bears to make the postseason.

And we didn’t forget about Bill Belichick’s potential final game as the coach of the New England Patriots.

Here are our best bets for the five best games of Week 18.

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1. Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa square off in prime time Sunday, and the winner gets to host a playoff game next week.
Jamie Germano (Allen) and Sam Navarro (Tagovailoa) / USA TODAY Sports

The winner of Buffalo-Miami Sunday night takes the AFC East crown — it would be the Bills’ fourth straight division title or the Dolphins’ first since 2008. The stakes are high for Miami given its division title drought and the chance to host a playoff game at Hard Rock, where the team is 7–1, but Buffalo can finish as high as the No. 2 seed with a victory or outright miss the playoffs with a loss.

This has the feel of a playoff game, though neither team is at the peak of its powers heading into the regular-season finale. The Bills are on a four-game winning streak, yes, but a 27–21 win over the Patriots and a 24–22 victory against the Chargers hardly inspire confidence. As for the Dolphins, they’re fresh off a 56–19 loss to the Ravens and they’ll be without Bradley Chubb (ACL) for the rest of the season and likely without Xavien Howard (foot) in Week 18 — Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (ankle) are both questionable as well.

Allen (neck) is banged up and has still not gotten on the same page with Stefon Diggs, who hasn’t cracked 50 receiving yards since Week 12. However, Buffalo has been able to impose its will on the ground with James Cook, who’s third in the NFL in rushing yards (1,086), and Allen, who’s tied for second in rushing touchdowns (15). Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder) is not at full strength either after a two-interception outing and he and the league’s leading receiver Tyreek Hill (1,717 yards) have their work cut out for them against a stout pass defense.

The Bills throttled the Dolphins 48–20 in Western New York earlier in the year and have won 10 of the last 11 games in the series. However, Buffalo has not been a reliable team to bet on with a 6–10 mark against the spread and a 5–8 record as a favorite. On the other hand, Miami is just 1–4 as an underdog, though a much more respectable 10–6 on the season.

Verderame: Bills -2.5, Over 49.5 (Buffalo 30, Miami 23)
Manzano: Bills -2.5, Under 49.5 (Buffalo 27, Miami 20)
Wood: Bills -2.5, Over 49.5 (Buffalo 28, Miami 23)

2. Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

With rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans have already won six more games than they did last season.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

Who would have thought before the season the AFC South would come down to Week 18? Both Houston and Indianapolis can still win the division with a Jaguars loss to the Titans. And if Jacksonville does take care of business, the winner of this game is still in the playoffs via a wild card berth.

The Texans throttled the Titans 26–3 last week in C.J. Stroud’s return from a two-week stint in concussion protocol. Stroud played well in his return, Devin Singletary had a solid day on the ground and Nico Collins paced the team in receiving. Perhaps more important than the offensive outing was the sound play of the defense, which had allowed 30-plus points in two of the last three weeks. The Colts enter Week 18 as a top-10 scoring offense (23.6 ppg).

Indianapolis held off a Las Vegas comeback attempt last week to win 23–20. Jonathan Taylor ran for a season-high 96 yards and found the end zone and Gardner Minshew had an efficient, turnover-free performance. That victory followed a shocking 29–10 loss to the Falcons that complicated matters for the Colts. Much like Houston, they’ve been trading wins and losses for the last month.

These teams have almost identical betting records: The Texans are 8–8 while Indy is 9–7. The Colts are 4–4 straight up at home and Houston is 3–4 in away games. The Texans have dominated the series lately with a 7–2–1 mark in their last 10 meetings with their division rival.

Verderame: Colts +1.5, Under 47.5 (Indianapolis 24, Houston 22)
Manzano: Texans -1.5, Over 47.5 (Houston 26, Indianapolis 23)
Wood: Texans -1.5, Under 47.5 (Houston 24, Indianapolis 20)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Travis Etienne had a pair of rushing touchdowns last week, his fourth multi-TD game of the season.
Melina Myers/USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville was a heavy favorite to repeat atop the AFC South before the season began. Now, with one week to go, the Jaguars need a win over a Titans team they beat 34–14 in Week 11 in order to clinch. Victories have been hard to come by lately for Jacksonville, which ended a four-game skid last week against the Panthers without Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). The status of the team’s franchise quarterback is in question against Tennessee, as is that of rookie Will Levis (foot).

Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. racked up over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 26–0 beatdown of Carolina with C.J. Beathard under center in Lawrence’s place. That was the first time Etienne eclipsed triple digits on the ground since Week 5 and the first time the team had done so since Week 11. Sunday was also an impressive defensive showing for Jacksonville, which recorded its first shutout of the season, allowing less than 200 total yards in the process.

The Titans fell 26–3 to the Texans last week after Levis exited early. Ryan Tannehill took over and demonstrated a connection with DeAndre Hopkins, but Derrick Henry was once again neutralized. The last time these teams met up he was held under 40 rushing yards on 10 attempts, which is about in line with his production over the last month.

The Jags began the year 6–2 against the spread but they’re just 3–5 in the second half of the season. Tennessee hasn’t delivered for bettors with a 6–9–1 mark that improves slightly to 5–7–1 as an underdog. Interestingly, Jacksonville is 6–2 straight up outside of Florida, though Tennessee has held its own at home with a 4–4 mark.

Verderame: Jaguars -5.5, Over 39.5 (Jacksonville 26, Tennessee 17)
Manzano: Jaguars -5.5, Over 39.5 (Jacksonville 24, Tennessee 17)
Wood: Titans +5.5, Under 39.5 (Jacksonville 20, Tennessee 16)

4. Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love has tossed 30 touchdown passes in his first full season as Green Bay’s starter.
Mark Hoffman/USA TODAY Network

Green Bay is in a win-and-in situation at home against Chicago. The Bears haven’t beaten the Packers since 2018 and haven’t won at Lambeau since 2015, but they are 3–1 since their bye week and 5–2 over their last seven games. Justin Fields has played some of his best football as of late, but the same can be said for Jordan Love, who’s responsible for nine touchdowns over his last three games.

Chicago got whatever it wanted in a 37–17 win over Atlanta last week. Fields, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson all found the end zone on the ground and Fields and DJ Moore connected nine times for 159 yards and a score. The Bears’ massive strides on defense showed up with four interceptions and it was also the fifth time in six games they held their opponent below 20 points.

Green Bay’s defense had its best outing in months in a 33–10 win over Minnesota a week ago. Love tossed three more touchdowns, including two to Jayden Reed, and Aaron Jones ran for over 100 yards for the second straight week. With top cornerback Jaire Alexander suspended, the Packers locked up Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens and shut down the run, too.

As a slim underdog in the season opener, Green Bay rolled Chicago 38–20 on the road in Love’s second career start. A lot has happened in the 16 weeks since that game, but the Packers have held their own at home, going 4–3 while the Bears have limped to a 2–6 road record, though they’re 4–4 against the spread.

Verderame: Packers -2.5, Over 43.5 (Green Bay 27, Chicago 24)
Manzano: Bears +2.5, Over 43.5 (Green Bay 30, Chicago 28)
Wood: Packers -2.5, Over 43.5 (Green Bay 27, Chicago 23)

5. New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Bill Belichick, who has won 15 straight against the Jets, could be coaching his last game as Patriots head coach.

There are zero playoff implications for this bout in New England. None. Both the Jets and Patriots have been eliminated from playoff contention but there is history on the line: Coach Bill Belichick is one loss away from tying Tom Landry for the most losses ever (177). However, New England has won 15 in a row against its division rival, including a 15–10 victory in Week 3, and Belichick is in position to extend that streak to 16 in what could be his final game with the franchise he led to six Super Bowls.

New York enjoyed a long layoff since its embarrassing 37–20 loss on the Thursday Night Football finale to Joe Flacco and the Browns. Without Amari Cooper, the former Jet threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns and helped put up a 34-point first half. Trevor Siemian threw for a season-high 261 yards and found Breece Hall for a touchdown but New York hardly stood a chance, especially after a Siemian pick-six put the team down two scores in the first quarter.

The Patriots nearly beat the Bills again last week despite three Bailey Zappe interceptions. New England ultimately fell 27–21 but only allowed Allen to complete 50% of his passes, picked him off once and held Buffalo to 3.4 yards per carry on the ground.

These teams have matching 5–10–1 records against the spread and both perform poorly in this situation: The Jets are 2–5 straight up on the road and the Patriots are 1–7 at home. New York and New England are both bottom-five scoring offenses and are generally well-regarded for their defensive play, hence the low point total.

Verderame: Patriots -1.5, Under 30.5 (New England 13, New York 3)
Manzano: Patriots -1.5, Under 30.5 (New England 20, New York 9)
Wood: Patriots -1.5, Over 30.5 (New England 23, New York 13)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: Anything is possible in that Dolphins-Bills game. Anything. Josh Allen could throw for 400 yards and five touchdowns. He could also throw Buffalo out of the game with three interceptions. Tua Tagovailoa could torch the Bills with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle going wild. He could also turn the ball over twice and help Miami to be down 20 points at halftime. In a situation like this, take the over with both offenses having firepower, and take the team with the better quarterback to find a way.

Manzano: If this is Bill Belichick’s final game in New England, there’s no better way for him to go out than embarrassing the Jets one more time. Don’t count on the Jets to suddenly score points in the final game of the season. The Bills are riding a four-game winning streak, despite two close games against the struggling Chargers and Patriots. But expect the Bills to prevail again in ugly fashion because of the lengthy list of injuries the Dolphins are dealing with. Somehow the Bills will go from fringe playoff team to No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Wood: Aside from the Titans, I’m backing the favorites in the final week of the regular season. The Bills have had the Dolphins’ number in recent years and they desperately need this game against a beat-up Miami team, which is still safe with a loss. The Colts and Texans are both great stories and Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans both deserve high praise for the turnaround jobs. Still, with C.J. Stroud under center, Houston wins this one-game playoff for a postseason spot — and potentially the division, depending on how things turn out in Nashville.

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