In our weekly Air Yards Breakdown, we’ll take a look at who led the NFL in this category and also go one step further. Air yards can be further split into or “prayer yards.” Prayer yards are just what they sound like—air yards on passes that are deemed uncatchable. In other words, targets that the receiver doesn’t have a prayer of catching. Prayer yards lead to a player’s boom-bust potential.
Sources for all data can be found at the end of the article.
Week 14 Summary
NFL Week 14 Air Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) December 14, 2023
🎯 Drake London
📈 Odell Beckham
🔥 DeAndre Hopkins pic.twitter.com/HH9buOXzXp
Drake London Has a Career Day
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
In a divisional matchup against the Buccaneers, London set a career high in receptions (10), air yards (179), receiving yards (172) and PPR points (29.2). The second-year wideout made a spectacular leaping grab on a 45-yard catch to set up the Falcons’ go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter, and he frequently took advantage of man and zone coverage. When Atlanta decides to lean into its passing game, London has flourished as a true No. 1 receiver.
DeAndre Hopkins Shines on Monday Night
The Dolphins entered their game against the Titans as the league’s stingiest pass defense since corner Jalen Ramsey returned in Week 8. It didn’t matter. Quarterback Will Levis hit Hopkins on a 22-yard go ball, then Hopkins reeled in a 45-yard deep shot on the next play. He was also wide open on a crosser, hauling in a 21-yard pass for a 36-yard gain, and set up Tennessee’s game winning score.
Hopkins finished with 171 air yards and crossed 100 air yards for the ninth time this season. (Only four other wide receivers have more 100-plus air yard games.) The Titans are playing with house money and Levis is more than willing to let it rip, creating ripe opportunities for Hopkins with two matchups against the Texans and one against the Seahawks in the fantasy playoffs.
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Zay Jones Uneven Performance in Christian Kirk’s Absence
Jones had a career-high 225 air yards in Week 14, but little came of it. Blame a few close calls:
- Third-and-9 on Cleveland’s 44, 5:44 remaining in the first quarter: Jones had a step on Browns corner Martin Emerson Jr., but Emerson closed in on Jones in time to break up a potential 32-yard gain.
- First-and-5 on Jacksonville’s 39, 28 seconds left in the first quarter: Jones had a 26-yard pass glance off his fingertips after he was held.
- Second-and-10 on Jacksonville’s 23, 1:02 remaining in the second quarter: Jones couldn’t haul in a 14-yard curl as corner Greg Newsome II came battering in from behind.
- Second-and-16 on Jacksonville’s 19, 14:20 left in the third quarter: An 18-yard pass goes off Jones’s hands and out of bounds
Outside of a couple overthrows, Jones was inches away from having a different day and producing more than a ho-hum 7.9 PPR points. He will face a Ravens defense potentially without jack-of-all-trades safety Kyle Hamilton in Week 15.
Week 15 Lookahead
Is Odell Beckham Jr. Back?
In a way, yes. Beckham flashed his old self when he toasted Rams safety Jordan Fuller on a double move en route to a 46-yard touchdown and his best fantasy performance of the year. He also had a pair of 20- and 17-yard grabs against zone, and Beckham’s 218 air yards were his most since Week 4 of the 2016 season. The hangup? Beckham only ran a route on 57% of the Ravens dropbacks.
Tommy Gilligan / USA TODAY Sports
He’s a rotational piece along with wideouts Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman, but Beckham is making a difference when he’s out there. Beckham has been targeted on 35.6% of his routes in his last three games and his upside case looks a little like Antonio Brown’s 2020 and ’21 seasons—a player who can still contribute on limited snaps. Baltimore should be pushed to throw in Week 16 and 17 matchups against the 49ers and Dolphins, creating room for Beckham to end the season as a serviceable flex play.
Have the Jets found a new groove?
Even as the rain poured down on MetLife Stadium, the Jets called 11 consecutive passes to open the second half. Quarterback Zach Wilson responded with one of his best stretches, completing 8-of-9 passes for 107 yards, and wideout Garrett Wilson got in on the fun, too. Wilson had 58 of his 162 air yards during the run and finished with his 10th straight game of at least 80 air yards. New York had an eye-popping 18% pass rate over expectation in the second half.
The Jets have been here before—when they passed more than they ran in a close Week 4 loss to the Chiefs—and went back to their old ways. Maybe, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett & Co. stay with what worked on Sunday because there is little else to try. Wilson could use the extra volume against the Dolphins.
A Matchup of Two Extremes
The revitalized Vikings defense leads the NFL with a 47.4% blitz rate and, in turn, the defense also faces the league’s highest rate of screens (10.3% of all plays) as offenses look to handle defensive coordinator Brian Flores’s pressure looks. Up next? A team that has suddenly thrived off its screen game.
Since quarterback Joe Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury, the Bengals have the lowest average depth of target (4.33 yards), have called screens at the highest rate (12.6%) and have generated the most explosive plays off screens (5) in that span. If both teams play to their tendencies, both Bengals running backs (Joe Mixon and Chase Brown) and wideout Ja’marr Chase could benefit from a bounty of short targets.
Quick Prayer Yards Notes
NFL Week 14 Prayer Yards Leaderboard
— Dan Falkenheim (@thefalkon) December 14, 2023
🙏 Zay Jones
❄️ Jonathan Mingo (He was open.)
🤏 Chris Godwin (Falcons corner Clark Phillips III made a couple excellent plays in coverage against Godwin.) pic.twitter.com/Csd1aO7SFW
- Panthers quarterback Bryce Young overthrew rookie wideout Jonathan Mingo on three go balls of 32, 36 and 41 yards. Mingo won on each route. With a bottom-tier pass blocking unit, Carolina wants to run the ball and it’s hard for the team’s receivers to cash in on a weekly basis.
- Rams wideout Demarcus Robinson didn’t have much luck filling in for Tutu Atwell. Matthew Stafford threw out of bounds on back-to-back 24-yard targets to Robinson, then sidearmed an 18-yard throw through Robinson’s hands, tossed another 18-yard pass into double coverage and targeted Robinson on a prayer shot in the back of the end zone late in the fourth quarter. Running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are still the team’s top three weapons.
- Rookie Falcons corner Clark Phillips III went step-for-step with Chris Godwin and did enough to deny a reception on a 45-yard go ball. Phillips then broke up a 26-yard pass to Godwin with 2:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. On a different day, Godwin could’ve had a bigger performance. Give props to the fourth-round rookie.
Data Sources
- Yards, receptions, touchdowns, air yards and EPA pulled via nflverse
- Catchable air yards, prayer yards, screens and play action data from FTN Data via nflverse
- Personnel data pulled from Joseph Hefner’s formations app
- Route participation pulled via Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report
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