Not to make excuses for some of the NFL’s better teams, but I’m inclined to believe the more surprising results of Week 14 were mere aberrations. Good teams on auto-pilot that struggled to get up for games against not-so-good teams.
The biggest favorite of the week, the Dallas Cowboys needed a game-winning drive in the final seconds of the fourth quarter to beat the 17-point underdog Houston Texans. The next-biggest favorite at 9.5 points, the Kansas City Chiefs allowed the Denver Broncos to climb out of a 27-0 hole before barely edging them out by six.
The Buffalo Bills also failed to cover as nine-point favorites over the New York Jets, though their opponent was at least formidable.
I’m not taking a whole lot from any of these games. The Bills, Chiefs and Cowboys are still some of the best teams in the NFL. But I do expect to see more good teams play down to their competition in the coming weeks. This is just the point in the season where we all know who the bad teams are, the good teams find it harder to get up for those games and the underdogs want to play spoiler.
Does that mean Houston will cover 14 points against Kansas City this coming week? I wouldn’t go that far. But hey, you never know.
Totals are falling in Buffalo, not the sky
For a moment there, right around Week 10, it looked as though the mighty Bills were maybe not so mighty. They had dropped a second straight game, an OT loss to the Vikings that came on the heels of a loss to the rival Jets. Then, two weeks later, they allowed the 4-6 Detroit Lions to give them a scare on Thanksgiving.
Not only did Buffalo appear vulnerable in the AFC, the Super Bowl favorites were looking vulnerable in their own division. The Dolphins, Jets and Patriots were all surging… until they weren’t.
The Dolphins, Jets and Patriots are now each in the midst of two-game losing streaks (the Patriots can snap or extend their streak on Monday night). The Bills are winners of four straight. The panic was unwarranted.
There is another trend to take note of, though. While the Bills hold a more comfortable two-game lead in the AFC East, they aren’t quite the juggernaut we expected. Instead of the high-flying team we saw in the playoffs last year, they win ugly. Since starting the year 4-1-1 against the spread, they’re 2-5 in their last seven games. In 10 of 13 games this season, the point total of their games has fallen under. That includes their last three games.
The Lions are no longer just a betting darling
My warning last week to keep an eye on the Lions turned out to be a good one, as they thoroughly beat down the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday to move within 1 1/2 games of a wild card playoff spot. But while the NFL world may be stunned by this development, it isn’t as surprising to the betting community.
Since last year, the Lions have been darlings of the betting world. Though they finished the 2021 season with a 3-13 record, landing the second overall pick in the draft, they were 11-6 against the spread. That competitiveness carried over into this season where they’re 9-4 against the spread. But now, the actual winning is finally catching up.
Detroit’s win over the Vikings was its fifth in the last six games and sixth straight against the spread. And the Lions hold the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, so don’t expect them to slow down any time soon.
Can Brock Purdy carry the Niners?
Brock Purdy looked like a more than capable fill-in at quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers in their 35-7 thrashing of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. He was sharp, going 16-of-21 for 185 yards and two touchdowns, and added renewed hope that the Niners’ title aspirations this season aren’t dead.
Their title odds are just fourth-shortest at BetMGM, behind the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs.
It’s still hard to know just how ready he is to carry an offense if it comes to that. The game is easier when your team rushes for over 200 yards and the opposing offense does literally nothing — which Tampa is making a habit of lately.
But if you thought the Niners were dead in the water after the Jimmy Garoppolo injury, that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. And a light remaining schedule, gives Purdy a chance to gain more confidence before the playoffs.
