If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and likely to change after this is published.
1
Raiders at Rams (+6) (O/U: 44.5)
Raiders: 5-7 (6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U)
Rams: 3-9 (3-8-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
The inclination here is to roll with the Raiders to cover, as they just did against the Chargers. Then you remember the Rams also just unexpectedly covered a similar spread against Seattle.
2
Jaguars at Titans (-3.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Jaguars: 4-8 (4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Titans: 7-5 (8-4 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
The first of two meetings between these teams in the final five weeks, Tennessee’s record ATS gives it a clear edge here.
3
Vikings at Lions (-1) (O/U: 53.5)
Vikings: 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Lions: 5-7 (8-3-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U)
Surprise, surprise. The Lions, two games under .500 and all, are actually favored over the 10-2 Vikings. I said Detroit was a team to keep an eye on in my Week 13 recap, but I can’t say I saw this coming. Even as the Lions have won four of their last five games and nearly beat the Vikings in Week 3.
4
Texans at Cowboys (-17) (O/U: 45)
Texans: 1-10-1 (4-7-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
Cowboys: 9-3 (8-4 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
Woo, boy, 17 points is a lot. This might be the largest spread of the season, and Dallas’ record ATS gives it a good chance to cover. The Cowboys have three wins of at least 20 points in their last five games.
5
Eagles at Giants (+7) (O/U: 45.5)
Eagles: 11-1 (7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U)
Giants: 7-4-1 (9-3 ATS, 3-9 O/U)
The Giants desperately need a win, but I don’t love how they match up against the Eagles. I’m looking at that over/under simply because of how many points the Eagles could potentially score.
6
Browns at Bengals (-6) (O/U: 47)
Browns: 5-7 (6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U)
Bengals: 8-4 (9-3 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
It took a while for Cleveland to put Houston away on Sunday. It won’t take Cincinnati nearly as long to put the Browns away if the quarterback play doesn’t improve.
7
Ravens at Steelers (-3) (O/U: 37)
Ravens: 8-4 (5-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
Steelers: 5-7 (6-5-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
The assumption here is that without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will lose. But backup Tyler Huntley kept them competitive in games without Jackson last season, and I suspect he’ll be able to do the same this year.
8
Jets at Bills (-9.5) (O/U: 44)
Jets: 7-5 (7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
Bills: 9-3 (6-6 ATS, 3-9 O/U)
It’s a little surprising to see the Bills favored by two scores over a team that already beat them once. Especially when that first game came down to how well New York defended them. And now the Jets are getting better quarterback play. This spread has everything to do with the game being in Buffalo.
9
Chiefs at Broncos (+9.5) (O/U: 42.5)
Chiefs: 9-3 (5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
Broncos: 3-9 (4-8 ATS, 1-11 O/U)
I couldn’t hammer KC against the spread quick enough. The Broncos play great defense but over the course of four quarters, Patrick Mahomes will find a way to score points and Denver simply isn’t capable of keeping up.
10
Panthers at Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U: 43.5)
Panthers: 4-8 (6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U)
Seahawks: 7-5 (6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U)
One of these teams is going to drop below .500 ATS and the other will rise above. The injury to Kenneth Walker puts a lot more weight on Geno Smith’s shoulders, but it’s not something he can’t handle.
11
Buccaneers at 49ers (-3) (O/U: 37.5)
Buccaneers: 6-6 (3-8-1 ATS, 2-10 O/U)
49ers: 8-4 (6-5-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
This is an incredibly small over/under number, but if you watched the Bucs play on Monday night, it makes sense. And now the Niners are playing with a third-string quarterback. Barring turnovers that create short fields, I’d actually lean towards that under.
12
Dolphins at Chargers (+3) (O/U: 52.5)
Dolphins: 8-4 (5-5-2 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
Chargers: 6-6 (6-5-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U)
The Chargers don’t score enough. Not as much as they should considering the players they have on offense. That hadn’t been a problem for the Dolphins, not until their game Sunday against the Niners. But the Chargers aren’t the Niners.
13
Patriots at Cardinals (+1.5) (O/U: 45)
Patriots: 6-6 (6-5-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U)
Cardinals: 4-8 (6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U)
This is a small spread for a Patriots team that I think is very clearly better than Arizona. The Cardinals have an offense that you feel like can wake up at anytime, but it’s hard to believe that will happen against Bill Belichick team in prime-time.
