We’re getting down to the final stretch. The push that will not only decide playoff seeding but determine which teams will play beyond Week 18.
This weekend, there are 14 games, including a doubleheader on Monday night – the Titans at the Dolphins and the Giants hosting the resurgent Packers at MetLife Stadium.
Below, we break down each contest and look at what strengths and weaknesses can turn the games in either direction.
Indianapolis Colts (7–5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6–6)
Key matchup: Gardner Minshew vs. Bengals’ secondary
This is a game where Minshew could shine in Indianapolis’ bid for its fifth consecutive win. The Colts only rank tied for 20th by averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, but seeing the Bengals should help matters.
The Bengals have been a mess in pass defense and will be without corner Cam Taylor-Britt. This season, they’re tied for last at yards per attempt allowed (8.1).
Ashley Landis/AP
Detroit Lions (9–3) vs. Chicago Bears (4–8)
Key matchup: Bears’ run defense vs. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs
This is going to be the focal point of the game for both sides. The Lions want to pound the ball behind their veteran (Montgomery) and dynamic rookie (Gibbs), evidenced by ranking fourth in yards per carry (4.6) and rushing yards per game (137.3).
Yet the Bears, for all their flaws, are excellent against the run. Matt Eberflus’s group is second in yards per carry against (3.4) and tied with the 49ers for the best overall at 79 rushing yards allowed per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8–4) vs. Cleveland Browns (7–5)
Key matchup: Browns’ third-down defense vs. Jaguars’ offense
Cleveland has largely stayed in the playoff picture because of its ability to play fantastic defense, especially against the pass. However, it is also terrific on third down, easily pacing the NFL at 27.6%.
Even with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars are 20th offensively on third down at 37.1%. Now, with C.J. Beathard commanding the unit, does Jacksonville have an ever tougher time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5–7) at Atlanta Falcons (6–6)
Key matchup: Buccaneers’ red-zone offense vs. Atlanta’s defense
The Falcons have struggled to pull away in most of their games due to a sputtering offense, but their defense is good enough to win almost by itself this Sunday.
That’s especially true in the red zone, where Atlanta only allows a league-best 37.1% of attempts to result in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay ranks 27th at 47.1% offensively.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
View the original article to see embedded media.
Carolina Panthers (1–11) vs. New Orleans Saints (5–7)
Key matchup: Bryce Young vs. Saints’ secondary
The Saints won the first matchup between these two teams back in September, largely because Young couldn’t stretch the field at all (153 yards, 4.6 YPA).
This hasn’t been a one-off problem. The Panthers rank 30th with 171.3 passing yards per game. It won’t be an easy afternoon to improve at the Superdome, with New Orleans’ defense sitting seventh against the pass, permitting 197.0 yards per game.
Houston Texans (7–5) vs. New York Jets (4–8)
Key matchup: C.J. Stroud vs. Jets’ pass rush
New York doesn’t do anything well offensively, but the defense remains a stout unit. And nothing has performed better than the pass rush, which ranks first in pressure rate at 28% despite blitzing at an NFL-low 16.1%.
While Stroud has been spectacularly successful as a rookie, Houston has struggled to keep him upright at times, ranking 20th in sack rate (7.1%) and tied for 21st in sacks allowed (32).
Los Angeles Rams (6–6) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9–3)
Key matchup: Rams’ run defense vs. Ravens’ rushing attack
Jessica Rapfogel/USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens have an improved passing attack this season under first-year coordinator Todd Monken, but with All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews out for the season, Baltimore has to rely once again on the run.
For Baltimore, that’s not a terrible thing. The Ravens check in second at 4.9 yards per carry and tops with 158.6 rushing yards per game. Conversely, the Rams are a middling run defense, tied for 14th at 4.2 YPC against. Los Angeles must rise up in this area to have a chance.
Minnesota Vikings (6–6) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (5–7)
Key matchup: Joshua Dobbs vs. Raiders’ four-man rush
The Vikings are continuing forward with Dobbs despite his disastrous four-interception performance in Minnesota’s Week 12 loss to the Bears.
However, he might enjoy a comfortable pocket. Despite the presence of star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, the Raiders have a league-worst 16.6% pressure rate.
Seattle Seahawks (6–6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (9–3)
Key matchup: Seattle’s discipline vs. 49ers talent
The Seahawks are the lesser team on both sides of the ball in this game, something we saw on Thanksgiving night at Lumen Field.
If Seattle is going to pull the road upset, it starts with not beating itself. The Seahawks have taken 91 accepted penalties this year, the most in the NFL. San Francisco has been much better, checking in 14th with 77 flags.
Denver Broncos (6–6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (5–7)
Key matchup: Russell Wilson vs. Chargers’ secondary
Denver had its five-game winning streak snapped in Houston last weekend, largely because Wilson threw three second-half interceptions. This week, the Broncos need Wilson to bounce back and threaten for a few big plays.
This season, Wilson has improved under coach Sean Payton but Denver is still averaging only 10.2 yards per completion, tied for 25th in the league. This is the week to get right, with the Chargers’ defense checking in 29th in the metric (11.8 Y/C).
Buffalo Bills (6–6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8–4)
Key matchup: Defensive lines vs. mobile quarterbacks
Both the Chiefs and Bills have strong-armed, mobile quarterbacks. And while Josh Allen runs more than Patrick Mahomes, the duo might be the toughest to sack in football. Buffalo and Kansas City sport the lowest sack rates in football at 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively.
However, both teams get after the passer. The Bills rank fourth in sacks (41) while the Chiefs are sixth (39). Additionally, Kansas City’s pressure rate (27.1%) is third-best in football, while Buffalo’s (25.5%) is fifth.
Philadelphia Eagles (10–2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9–3)
Key matchup: Eagles’ pass defense vs. Dak Prescott
Sometimes, there’s no reason to dig very deep. This game is going to be defined by whether the Eagles can limit Dallas’ passing game in any capacity.
This season, Philadelphia allows 260.3 passing yards per game, 29th in the NFL. Conversely, the Cowboys are prolific, led by MVP candidate Dak Prescott, who ranks third with 263.4 passing yards per game.
Tennessee Titans (4–8) vs. Miami Dolphins (9–3)
Key matchup: Miami’s red-zone offense vs. Titans’ defense
The Dolphins rank at or near the top in a slew of offensive categories, led by receiver Tyreek Hill, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and a backfield featuring De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert.
One of those excellent figures is Miami’s red-zone percentage, where its 75% touchdown rate leads the league. However, the Titans are tough inside the 20, only allowing six points on 37.2% of drives.
Green Bay Packers (6–6) vs. New York Giants (4–8)
Key matchup: Giants’ third-down offense vs. Packers’ defense
New York has struggled offensively throughout the season, starting three different quarterbacks. One of those problem areas is third down, where the Giants sit 31st at 30.9%.
However, the Packers’ defense has been a mess in this situation. Green Bay ranks 24th at 41.4%, giving Tommy DeVito and Co. a chance to make progress.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Colorado, Michigan and Virginia Readers: Get up to $100 from SI Sportsbook
Bet $5 on FanDuel and get $200 in Bonus Bets if not in those states
