It feels like ages ago when the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers recorded wins on Thanksgiving to continue the tight race in the NFC North.
The Lions survived a scare from the Chicago Bears, who fired coach Matt Eberflus in the aftermath of a clock management debacle in the final minute of regulation. And the Miami Dolphins might still be frozen in Green Bay after the Packers made them realize they’re still not built to play in cold weather.
Thanks to the Lions and Packers taking care of business last week, we now get a massive NFC North showdown in Week 14 with plenty of playoff implications. We usually don’t add Thursday night games to our “best games of the week” story during nonholiday weeks, but this game was too big to ignore.
The Packers need to even the season series with the Lions to keep their divisional title hopes alive. But even if the Lions beat the Packers, they still can’t breathe a sigh of relief because the Minnesota Vikings aren’t far behind.
The Vikings host their former quarterback when Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons come to town Sunday. The Falcons are now tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South standings after dropping three consecutive games.
The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are also in a tight race in the NFC West, with Seattle clinging to a one-game lead over Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams. The Cardinals have a chance to tie the Seahawks by beating them at home Sunday. The Rams will have their hands full at home against the Buffalo Bills, winners of seven consecutive games.
There’s also a notable divisional matchup in the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
THURSDAY
Green Bay Packers (9–3) at Detroit Lions (11–1)
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Spread: Lions -3.5 (over/under: 51.5)
Matchup to watch: Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. Lions’ defensive front. Expect Green Bay to lean heavily on Jacobs to take advantage of Detroit’s thin defense after a wave of injuries. The Lions recently lost linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez to a season-ending torn ACL. Rodriguez is the latest of many key defensive contributors currently on injured reserve for Detroit. But Jacobs struggled last week against the Dolphins, recording only 43 rushing yards on 19 carries. Jacobs has 987 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. —Manzano
Key stat: The Lions are dealing with myriad defensive injuries, and they’ll be tested Thursday night. Green Bay’s offense is second in yards per play at 6.3, only behind the Baltimore Ravens. Detroit’s reserves and coordinator Aaron Glenn’s guile will be tested. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Tucker Kraft will be tough to sit with six teams on a bye, especially since he’s scored a combined 24.4 points in his past two games. Still, he has a brutal matchup against a Lions defense that’s allowed just one tight end to beat them for more than 9.6 points. That includes holding Kraft to just 7.6 points in a Week 9 matchup. I would temper expectations. —Fabiano
Best bet: Lions -3.5. By virtually every metric you can look at, the Lions are the superior football team on both sides of the football, leading me not to hesitate in laying the 3.5 points on them on their home field. Offensively, they rank fourth in the NFL in EPA per play and first in success rate. The Packers rank eighth and 15th in those two respective stats. Defensively, the Lions’ defense has become one of the best units in the NFL, ranking third in opponent EPA per play and seventh in opponent success rate. The Packers rank ninth and 27th in those two areas. Let’s not overthink this one and just bet on the better team playing on their home field. —MacMillan
SI’s pick:I like the Packers if only because we can’t keep picking the Lions every week, right? And we can’t assume they’ll win every critical divisional game, right? At some point, there will be a collective malaise or an afternoon where an incurable amount of bad bounces go against them. I think that happens here. Jordan Love is due to get crazy hot for an afternoon and put up some serious points. —Orr
SUNDAY
Atlanta Falcons (6–6) at Minnesota Vikings (10–2)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -5.5 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Falcons QB Cousins vs. Vikings DE Andrew Van Ginkel. A week after throwing four interceptions, Cousins now has to deal with the Vikings’ pass rush. Van Ginkel, who has two pick-sixes this season, could add to Cousins’s league-high 13 interceptions. Cousins’s lack of mobility this season could make him a sitting duck against Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard. The two pass rushers have a combined 19 sacks this season. —Manzano
Key stat: The Vikings are going to blitz Cousins relentlessly. He’s immobile and coming off a hideous four-interception performance against the Los Angeles Chargers. Look for Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores to bring pressure with five and six, as the Vikings blitz at a league-high rate of 38%. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Kirk Cousins has seen his stats decline in each of his past five games, culminating in a 2.1-point stinker in a loss to the Chargers. I’d fade him this week, as he faces a tough Vikings defense that’s surrendered just 15.1 points per game to quarterbacks. What’s more, only Caleb Williams has scored more than 15.6 fantasy points against them since Week 9. —Fabiano
Best bet: Vikings -5.5. Minnesota has the best run defense in the NFL, leading the league in both opponent rush EPA and success rate, meaning the Falcons are going to have to rely on Cousins to have a big game against his former team. That’s all well and good except for the fact that he has been abysmal when facing pressure this season and the Vikings apply pressure at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Then there’s the matter of the Vikings’ elite receiving core going against a banged-up and thin Falcons secondary that has gotten worse as the season has progressed. This is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons and I’d be surprised if they keep this one close. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took Minnesota after seeing what a far less talented Chargers defense did against the Falcons last weekend. The Falcons are not really in crisis mode but Cousins’s recent numbers—made to look worse by a flukey and wide receiver-driven four INT appearance last week—are still concerning against the best defense in football this year. It’s going to get worse before it gets better for the Falcons. —Orr
Seattle Seahawks (7–5) at Arizona Cardinals (6–6)
When/TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Cardinals -2.5 (over/under: 44.5)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Seahawks’ secondary. The Cardinals’ offense has hit a wall the past two weeks, struggling to generate explosive plays. Kyler Murray will need to do less quick throws to tight end Trey McBride and push the ball down the field to Harrison, who had five catches for 60 yards and one touchdown against the Vikings last week. Murray only averaged 5.8 yards per attempt in Arizona’s loss to Minnesota. Seattle is averaging an impressive 210.6 passing yards per game. —Manzano
Key stat: The Cardinals rank second in the NFL with 5.1 yards per carry, but they struggled to run the ball against Seattle two weeks ago, gaining just 55 yards. If Arizona is going to earn the season split, it’ll be because James Conner and Murray run wild. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has scored 19-plus points in three of his past four games, including 19.7 points against the Cardinals. Their defense has struggled against slot receivers, allowing the sixth-most points per game to the position. So, in a week with six teams on a bye, Smith-Njigba is an attractive No. 2 fantasy wide receiver. —Fabiano
Best bet: UNDER 45. The Seahawks and Cardinals defenses have been two of the most improved units in the NFL since Week 7, ranking sixth and eighth in opponent EPA per play in that time frame. They also have two of the better red zone defenses in the NFL, especially the Cardinals, who come into this game seventh in red zone defense, allowing teams to score a touchdown just 48.78% of the time. Just 22 points were scored in the first meeting between these two teams and I expect another low-scoring affair in the rematch. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I like Arizona only because I have a hard time believing the Cardinals would get blanked by this defense again. Even though Mike Macdonald’s unit seems to become more effective as the season wears on and against opponents a second time and even though Leonard Williams is on an incredible heater, I like the Cardinals having to hash out their run game issues and solve some problems on the fly after some poor recent performances. —Orr
Buffalo Bills (10–2) at Los Angeles Rams (6–6)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Bills -4.5 (over/under: 49.5)
Matchup to watch: Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Bills’ secondary. Los Angeles needs a dominant performance from Nacua to have a chance against the red-hot Bills. Nacua, who has 42 catches for 546 yards and two touchdowns this season, set the tone in the Rams’ Week 8 upset win against the Vikings. The second-year wideout also bailed out the Rams with a standout performance in Week 11 against the New England Patriots. This Rams’ offense feeds off Nacua, who makes life easier for Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and many others. Buffalo’s defense allows only 199.7 passing yards per game. —Manzano
Key stat: This could be a game determined by tackling. The Rams have missed the second-most tackles with 96, while the Bills have been second-best in that metric with just 50 tackles missed. If Los Angeles can’t bring down James Cook on first contact, it could be finished. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Stafford has been up and down lately, and a matchup against the Bills makes him tough to trust. Their pass defense has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, as just three have beaten them for more than 15.9 points. So, while this could be a high-scoring game, the matchup still isn’t great for Stafford. —Fabiano
Best bet: UNDER 49.5. The Rams’ success after their slow start to the season has been largely due to their defense, which has stepped up in a big way. Since Week 7, they’re seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in opponent success rate. They’re also sixth in red zone defense (46.51%) and 10th in QB pressure rate. The Bills defense has also been fantastic of late, ranking fifth in opponent EPA per play since Week 7 while ranking eighth in red zone defense. While you likely think offense when you think of these two teams, it’s their defenses that have shined this season. The total in this game is too high for a game involving two of the better defensive units in the NFL. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: No reason to go big and bet the Rams here, in my opinion. This just isn’t a top-tier team at the moment. Jared Verse is playing really well and the offense can move the ball well at times, but Buffalo is a runaway boulder downhill at the moment and the Rams haven’t shown the ability of late to keep up with a team like this. —Orr
Los Angeles Chargers (8–4) at Kansas City Chiefs (11–1)
When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (over/under: 42.5)
Matchup to watch: Chargers TE Will Dissly vs. Chiefs’ secondary. Kansas City has struggled defending tight ends this season, which the football public took notice of last week when Raiders tight end Brock Bowers went off on the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Tight ends Isaiah Likely, Cade Otton and Mike Gesicki also took advantage of the Chiefs earlier this season. Justin Herbert has had plenty of success throwing in Dissly’s direction. But if the Chiefs take away Dissly, Herbert might only have rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey as a reliable target. —Manzano
Key stat: Before last Friday, the Chiefs had not allowed a 300-yard passer since Super Bowl LVII. However, Aidan O’Connell lit up Kansas City for 340 yards. Justin Herbert is averaging only 212.6 yards per game, 23rd in the league, but might have an opportunity for a big night. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Jakobi Meyers has been an absolute target hog in the Raiders offense, seeing at least 11 in three of his past four games. He’s also scored 13-plus points in all but one of his past six games, including three games with more than 17 points. Next up is a plus matchup against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the sixth-most points per game to perimeter receivers. Consider Meyers a solid No. 2 option. —Fabiano
Best bet: Chargers +172. The Chiefs continue to squeak out wins against inferior opponents and I think their luck finally turns against them Sunday night, therefore I’m taking the Chargers on the moneyline. The Chargers outrank the Chiefs in several key metrics this season including net yards per play, red zone efficiency and average scoring margin. It’s time for Kansas City to suffer its second loss of the season. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took the Chargers assuming that Los Angeles is not going to wet its own pants like many of Kansas City’s opponents of late. Jim Harbaugh’s team is tough albeit banged up and in desperate need of some help in the form of an offensive playmaker. This is going to be a low-scoring slobberknocker but maybe the Chargers will get a snap off and be able to kick a field goal. —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 14: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.