There was a time when most football fans disliked seeing the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. The Lions were often bad and the annual Thursday game usually turned into a stinker.
But maybe the first-place Lions will now start a new tradition of punishing teams on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears are tasked with slowing the mighty Lions in the first of three games on Thursday. Many are expecting the Lions to cruise in this one, but the Bears kept it close against the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers the past two weeks.
As for the Week 13 Sunday slate, no game is bigger than the showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens featuring the two best running backs in the league. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry might combine for over 400 rushing yards with the way they’ve been running the football this season.
The Ravens are going to need to find a way to beat the surging Eagles to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. But the Steelers will have their hands full against the high-scoring offense of the Cincinnati Bengals, who are coming off a bye week.
These are just three of our five best games of Week 13. We’ll also keep tabs on the Arizona Cardinals facing the Minnesota Vikings, and the San Francisco 49ers battling the Buffalo Bills.
Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s fantasy football advice, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | NFL Betting Picks
THURSDAY
Chicago Bears (4–7) at Detroit Lions (10–1)
When/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Lions -10.5 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: QB Caleb Williams vs. Lions S Brian Branch. Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season because he holds the ball too long and tends to force throws. That could get him in trouble against the versatile Branch, who has four interceptions this season. But Williams (11 touchdowns, five interceptions) has played with composure in recent weeks after the team fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replaced him with Thomas Brown earlier this month. —Manzano
Key stat: How does Caleb Williams handle the blitz? Detroit loves to blitz more than most, with defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn bringing at least five rushers on 32.9% of snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the league. It’s going to be man coverage behind the blitzes as well, giving Williams a blueprint … if he can execute it. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Williams looked great last week, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns and 26.9 fantasy points. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he must face the Lions defense next. Over the past four weeks, Detroit has held Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson all under 13 points. —Fabiano
Best bet: Bears +10.5. No team in the NFL is in more of a “sell high” spot than the Lions. They’re the best team in the league, but laying double-digit points on a short week against a division rival that has been trending in the right direction is a tough pill to swallow. The Bears’ secondary has been elite and their offense has improved in their two games since firing Waldron and promoting Brown. I’ll try to be brave by betting against the unstoppable Lions. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: The Bears like to counter 12 personnel defenses with nickel looks frequently, according to NextGenStats, which will be interesting when facing the league’s greatest two-headed rushing monster possibly of all time (don’t laugh! They’re the only 10-plus TD tandem in two consecutive years ever!). I expect the Lions to do some pummeling on Thanksgiving but I hope I’m wrong for the sake of having a good game. —Orr
SUNDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (8–3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4–7)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bengals -3 (over/under: 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Steelers’ secondary. Pittsburgh has one of the better defenses in the league, but the secondary has struggled at times. The defensive backs played well against the explosive Ravens in Week 11, but dealing with Chase presents a different set of problems. Chase has a league-high 1,056 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. The star receiver has 18 catches for 339 yards and five touchdowns in his past two games combined against the Los Angeles Chargers and Ravens. —Manzano
Key stat: The Steelers have a reputation of being great defensively, but they have issues. Pittsburgh is allowing 11.3 yards per completion, ranking 22nd. Conversely, Cincinnati averages a league-leading 262.7 passing yards per game. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Najee Harris has seen his numbers decline since the return of Jaylen Warren, as he’s failed to score more than 13.3 points in each of his past three consecutive games. He’s a high risk-high reward flex starter against the Bengals, who have allowed just one back to beat them for more than 14.1 points since Week 7, including Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. —Fabiano
Best bet: Steelers +3. The Steelers prove week after week and year after year that metrics and analytics don’t matter when they take the field. It may be tempting to lay the field goal on the Bengals, but Mike Tomlin brings his guys to play every week, and if their elite defense can slow Joe Burrow, they’re going to be in this game until the end. I’m not going to bet against them for losing in a snowstorm last week. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: The Bengals comeback starts here. While Pittsburgh has a better receiving corps than the Chargers, which gave the Bengals some fits late in their last loss, Russell Wilson is not on Justin Herbert’s level. I think this is where Burrow rises to the top like he did during the Super Bowl run and leaves a string of white-hot games in his wake. —Orr
Arizona Cardinals (6–5) at Minnesota Vikings (9–2)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Vikings -3.5 (over/under: 44.5)
Matchup to watch: Cardinals RB James Conner vs. Vikings LB Blake Cashman. It was not a coincidence that the Cardinals had one of their worst offensive performances of the season during Conner’s quiet eight rushing yards against the Seahawks last week. Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is at his best as a play-caller when Conner is in the flow of the offense. The Vikings have the defensive front and linebackers to contain him, starting with the versatile Cashman, who has three sacks and 27 solo tackles this season. Conner has rushed for 705 yards and five touchdowns this season. —Manzano
Key stat: Can the Cardinals run the ball? Arizona is second with 5.2 yards per carry, but was held to 3.5 YPC against the Seattle Seahawks a week ago. Minnesota has been excellent against the run, with a second-best rate of 3.6 YPC. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Conner is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring only 9.9 points in a loss to the Seahawks. While he’s still averaging 14.6 points per game on the season and is tough to sit, Conner does have a tough game in Minnesota. Over the past four weeks, no defense in the league has given up fewer yards per rush (2.7) or fantasy points per game to running backs. —Fabiano
Best bet: Cardinals +3.5. We can’t put too much stock in the most recent game a team plays. Instead, judge a team by its season-long efforts and if you do that, it’s easy to see why we should take the points with Arizona. Its defense has improved since some early-season woes and its offense had its first real hiccup of the season last week. Now, they get to play a Vikings team that has regressed and has seemingly gotten every possible break in close games. The Cardinals bounce back this week. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Last week’s loss to Seattle showed Arizona the absolute perils of not having a fine-tuned running game. The beefy Seahawks front really gave the Cardinals issues and slowed down the entire operation. This week, Drew Petzing goes back to the drawing board and designs a stellar gameplan for the beatable Vikings. —Orr
Philadelphia Eagles (9–2) at Baltimore Ravens (8–4)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Ravens -3 (over/under: 50.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Ravens RB Derrick Henry. Yes, these two star running backs won’t technically face each other on the field, but all eyes will be on them to see who has the better performance. Barkley has gained MVP attention after gashing the Rams for 255 rushing yards last week and surpassing Henry as the league’s top rusher with 1,392 yards. But Henry isn’t too far behind after adding 140 rushing yards against the Chargers to bring his total to 1,325 yards. —Manzano
Key stat: Baltimore and Philadelphia are first and second in the NFL in rushing yardage, respectively. However, the Ravens also rank first against the run at 3.5 YPC, while Philadelphia is tied for ninth at 4.3 YPC. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Dallas Goedert was a disappointment last week, scoring only 5.9 points. Still, I’d keep him in starting lineup. Baltimore’s defense has allowed 9.7 or more points to seven tight ends, including four who have scored more than 16 points. Overall, the Ravens have allowed the 10th-most points per game to tight ends. —Fabiano
Best bet: Eagles +120. I’ll take the Eagles as underdogs to win outright. They’re the second-best team in the NFL next to the Lions but with them being two-point underdogs in Baltimore, the betting market seems to evaluate them as equal to the Ravens, which I disagree with. Their offenses are just as effective, but the Eagles have a top-five defense while the Ravens have a bottom-five defense. Since their BYE week adjustments in Week 5, the Eagles rank second in opponent EPA and third in opponent success rate. They’ll slow the Ravens’ offense enough to allow their own offense to win them the game. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I took the Eagles…begrudginly. Although I have reserved this game as a kind of long-term test case as to whether I trust Philadelphia long-term, or if this stretch has been a matter of Saquon Barkley hammering some mid-level running defenses. Baltimore can strip Philadelphia bare or become the bar that Nick Sirianni clears to get the last of the WIP callers off his back. —Orr
San Francisco 49ers (5–6) at Buffalo Bills (9–2)
When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Bills -6.5 (over/under: 44.5)
Matchup to watch: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel Sr. vs. Bills’ secondary. Rumors have swirled about Samuel being a trade candidate or a surprise cut in the offseason because of his quiet performances this season. Samuel can put an end to the rumors with a dominant outing in Buffalo to help save the season for the reeling 49ers. The versatile Samuel, who had only one catch for 21 yards in the loss to Green Bay last week, has 34 catches for 511 yards and one touchdown this season. The Bills are allowing 210.0 passing yards per game and only 19.5 points per game. —Manzano
Key stat: The Niners have been terrible defensively in the red zone this season, allowing 67.6% of trips to end in touchdowns, 29th-worst in the league. Meanwhile, Buffalo is sixth offensively inside the 20-yard line, scoring a touchdown on 63.8% of attempts. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Samuel has been a shell of his former self, scoring a combined 9.2 points in his past two games. He’s also failed to score more than 12.6 points in four consecutive games, and a matchup against the Bills isn’t favorable. Their defense has allowed the fifth-fewest points per game to perimeter receivers, so Samuel Sr. could struggle again. —Fabiano
Best bet: 49ers +6.5. I’m willing to go down with the 49ers ship. They’ve had the worst luck of all 32 NFL teams this season but that doesn’t mean they’re a bad football team that’s deserving of being a touchdown underdog, especially if Brock Purdy returns Sunday. They enter Week 13 ranked third in the league in Net Yards Per Play and are inside the top 15 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. They may not beat the Bills, but they’re good enough to keep this game within a touchdown. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: At this point, it’s Buffalo simply because San Francisco is so hard to trust. The Bills are due to throw us a clunker, but not against a relatively unfamiliar opponent who doesn’t match up well from a personnel standpoint. Let’s see the Bills continue this crusade of slicing up every other team we thought was better than them at season’s beginning. —Orr
All best bet odds courtesy FanDuel.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 13: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions .
