The biggest question for Week 11: How do coaches, star players and teams top what happened in Week 10?
As fans and NFL experts continue to debate Justin Jefferson’s unbelievable catch against the Bills as maybe the best in NFL history, could we see an even better grab this weekend? Jeff Saturday came out of nowhere to become interim coach of the Colts and beat the Raiders last week. Could he top that with a win over the 8–1 Eagles? And speaking of the Eagles, the Commanders’ win against them on Monday night was the fourth time in the Super Bowl era a team that was 8–0 or better lost at home to a team that entered the game with a losing record, according to ESPN Stats and Information. And Ron Rivera and Washington have now pulled off the last two such upsets against Philadelphia and in 2020 against the Steelers. Rivera also made a big decision on Wednesday, sticking with Taylor Heinicke as his starting quarterback over Carson Wentz, whom the team traded for in the offseason and can be activated this Sunday. Heinicke is 3–1 mark filling in for Wentz.
So there are plenty of questions to get answers to with eight weeks to go in the regular season. And to answer some of those questions, Albert and Conor will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and the story lines they’ll be watching.
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GAMES OF THE WEEK
Jets (6–3) at Patriots (5–4), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: For most of the first half of the season, the Jets have seemed to be on their way up, the Patriots on their way down, yet a New England win here would give Bill Belichick and crew a sweep of their hated rival and pull them even in the AFC East. So, this is a pretty big spot for the Jets, and for Zach Wilson, who threw three costly interceptions in the first game between these two. — Albert Breer
Eagles (8–1) at Colts (4-5-1), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: This is a massive get-right game for the Eagles, who have already told us they’re hoping to fix some of their issues, specifically run defense. In the past 24 hours, they’ve brought in two veterans who aren’t going to add much on special teams, meaning they’re willing to pay whatever it takes to add depth to the roster. I wonder whether Ndamukong Suh will play harmoniously within the defense, or whether he’ll freelance as he’s done from time to time in different spots. — Conor Orr
Browns (3–6) at Bills (6–3) , 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Browns’ defense is among the worst in football. At some point, they need to prove, even to themselves, that this is a hospitable environment for winning football to take place. Deshaun Watson, who is expected to return for the December 4 game at Houston, isn’t going to be a salve. While the Bills wouldn’t seem like the ideal candidate—this is a strange circumstance with the game being played at Detroit because of the expected snow storm in Buffalo—anything can happen. Buffalo is going through its midseason slump and is probably ripe for getting picked off one more time before it starts the push back to remind us that it’s still one of the best teams in the NFL. — C.O.
Cowboys (6–3) at Vikings (8–1), 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: The Vikings are coming off an emotional overtime win against the Bills in the Game of the Year, facing a five-day stretch in which they’ll play Dallas and New England at home. And the Cowboys are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Packers in overtime at Lambeau. Can Minnesota’s veteran core get its team refocused? Will Dallas have a little extra edge for this one, knowing they have a massive Thanksgiving game of their own against the Giants? — A.B.
Chiefs (7–2) at Chargers (5–4), 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: I think this is the Brandon Staley–panic-meter game. And while that’s not fair—the Chargers have been battered by injuries more than any team in the NFL—it’s not going to stop people from hammering a team that came into the year with astronomical expectations. Difficult timing, for sure, as Patrick Mahomes is playing like one of the best quarterbacks on earth right now. — C.O.
49ers (5–4) at Cardinals (4–6), 8:15 p.m. ET Monday: After all the ups and downs of the first 10 weeks, San Francisco has a chance to pull even with the Seahawks in the NFC West on Monday night in Mexico City. And it’s happening with Jimmy Garoppolo rounding into form with a loaded skill group around him. Meanwhile, this is Arizona’s shot, maybe its last one, at willing its way back into the race for the division title. — A.B.
FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
Justin Fields will score 30-plus fantasy points for the third consecutive week. Fields has gone from waiver-wire fodder to the best quarterback in fantasy football in about a month’s time. He’s posted 39-plus points in each of his past two games, and a matchup in Atlanta makes him primed for another huge performance. The Falcons’ defense has allowed just one quarterback to score more than 21 points against them, but this unit also hasn’t faced a signal-caller like Fields, who is on such a statistical hot streak.. —Michael Fabiano
• Fabiano’s Week 11 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF
KEY QUESTIONS
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Who gets your vote for greatest catch in NFL history?
Orr: Albert answered this question first, so I’m going to pick something else to entertain you all. I had a really great position to see Mario Manningham’s grab against the Patriots live at LucasOil Stadium in Super Bowl XLVI. The coverage was perfect on that throw, and the pressure couldn’t have been greater. There was no room for making any mistakes, and it was against a far superior Patriots team.
Breer: Jefferson. Recency bias? Sure. But Justin Jefferson’s catch got plenty of attention this week—and I still feel like it deserved more. That dude made a one-handed catch with his feet off the ground and despite an NFL defensive back having TWO hands on the ball. I’m not quite sure people understand the sort of playing strength it takes to pull that off—let alone that he did it on fourth-and-18—with the game on the line. There have been more visually pleasing catches, but I think that was the toughest one I’ve ever seen. The degree of difficulty is off the charts.
What is your one big prediction for Week 11?
Orr: The Lions win their third consecutive game. Dan Campbell is charging, people. This week, Giants coach Brian Daboll revealed that Campbell threw chairs and smashed tables during an interview when they were on the Dolphins’ staff together. Maybe it was just a long con intimidation tactic knowing that this moment would come one day down the line. In all seriousness, the Lions seem to be piecing together little signs of progress defensively. If they can put together a complete game plan, they could stun the surprisingly incredible Giants.
Breer: Neither the Raiders nor the Broncos will score 20 points. And Josh McDaniels will leave Denver with a win, pulling his old team into a tie with his new team in the AFC West basement. The Broncos’ defense is that good, and their offense has been that bad, and ultimately, I think the Raiders get this one because they need it more than the Broncos.
Which team most needs a win in Week 11?
Orr: Jets. And not for any other reason than burying the Patriots for the first time under Robert Saleh would clear a very significant benchmark for this young team. The Patriots have a great defensive team again, and seeing Wilson orchestrate an efficient, game-winning script would boost their confidence into another stratosphere.
Breer: Rams. They’re 3–6, and their offensive line has been a mess. Matthew Stafford missed last week with a concussion, and Cooper Kupp is out for a month. And a loss probably changes their approach on a number of things (including the handling of Kupp’s return from tightrope surgery). I don’t think it’s overreacting to say that the title defense rides on beating the Saints on Sunday.
Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 11?
Orr: Dak Prescott. The loss to the Packers put Dallas off pace just a little bit, and now they get the toast of their conference plopped in their laps. While it’s not fair to place this squarely on Prescott’s shoulders, he’s going to carry the burden of scoring with an offense that hasn’t been slowed down much this year.
Breer: Josh Allen. And I think he’ll handle the pressure just fine. He has 10 interceptions through nine games, having thrown six of them over his past 10 quarters, including four red zone picks in the past two games. And, in general, the Bills have played plenty of sloppy, uneven ball since halftime of their win over the Packers. So coming out of that, and the loss to the Vikings, sets up like the Hail Murray loss to Arizona in 2020, and the New England (wind game) and Tampa Bay (unsightly first half) turns in ’21. Whether the Bills respond here like they did in those spots rides largely on Allen tightening things up and returning to the MVP level he was playing at through six-and-a-half games.
Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 11?
Orr: Over at SI gambling, I picked the Browns with the possibility of six feet of snow. I’ll stick with Cleveland despite the news of the game moving to Detroit, mostly because all it takes is Nick Chubb having a fantastic game to keep a great Buffalo offense off the field. The Browns haven’t won many ball-control games this year (they are nearly a 10-point underdog for a reason), but now is as good a time as any to start.
Breer: Bears. Atlanta’s fallen back a little in recent weeks, and I think that gives Justin Fields a shot at a very big homecoming. Chicago fought hard in losses to the Cowboys, Dolphins and Lions. And all of that finally pays off this week.
Does the coaching landscape change if Saturday beats the Eagles?
Orr: I don’t think so. And boy I hope not. I’m still hearing from coaches who are depressed over the idea that this can happen with more frequency. Saturday brought great energy this week because it was his sixth day on the job, while other coaches have been dealing with the slog of the middle of the season for weeks now. We’ll see whether he can keep it up. We’ll see whether he can keep his coaching staff motivated. And we’ll see whether he can maintain this aura when people figure out his tendencies.
Breer: Not yet. You have to let the season play out. But if he makes the playoffs, I think it could. We all laughed at Deion Sanders wanting the Florida State job with no assistant-coaching experience. Then he goes to Jackson State and is crushing it, and now he’s a hot name for FBS jobs. Jim Harbaugh once bypassed the assistant-coach route to take the head job at the University of San Diego, became the Stanford coach three years later and led the 49ers to the NFC title game as a first-year NFL head coach four years after that. Mike Vrabel and Kevin O’Connell, two more former players, ascended quickly, and adapted fast to top jobs. So the idea of ex-players cutting the line isn’t without merit. If Saturday proves it can be done like this, though? It’d be foolish not to think that’d change some things. But it’ll take more than just beating the Eagles on a random Sunday in September to do that.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET
The Chargers and Chiefs meet for their second time this season in another primetime matchup in Los Angeles. In the first meeting in September, Kansas City narrowly won 27–24 but failed to cover the four-point spread. For their Week 11 matchup, the Chiefs are 5.5-point road favorites. Kansas City has been excellent on the road, covering the spread in three of its four games. On the flip side, the Chargers have a woeful home record against the spread, covering just once in four outings at SoFi Stadium. As for the matchup breakdown, the Chiefs offense boasts the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL with an average of 30 points per game, while the Chargers defense has struggled immensely and checks in as the 29th scoring defense. Kansas City’s efficient offense also ranks inside the top three in points per play, yards per play and third-down conversion percentage. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense is in the bottom eight in all of those categories. Put it simply, the Chiefs offense against the Chargers defense is the biggest mismatch of any game in Week 11. Lay the points, take the Chiefs and rejoice when they easily win by more than a touchdown.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Orr: I think we need to remind ourselves that we are firmly in the dog days of the season. It’s impossible to have 26.2 perfect miles of a marathon, and it’s impossible to look smart and unbeatable and tough each and every week of a 17-game season. It’s time to holster most of our hot takes until December. In the meantime, remember that Giving Tuesday is coming up, which is a great opportunity to support a charity of your choice. I love what the folks at the “I Have a Dream” foundation in Newark, N.J., are doing to facilitate sustainable education and growth. There’s a great place to start if you’re searching for a worthwhile cause.
Breer: Twenty-nine of the league’s 32 teams enter Week 11 with at least three losses. The league likes to trumpet that sort of thing as parity. This year, I see it more as mediocrity. There just aren’t complete teams this year—the Eagles and Vikings might be the closest—and that means everyone is susceptible. And that’s why I think, more often than in the past, we’re seeing so many upside-down results. That said, this is normally the time of year when real contenders hit the gas and start to show their colors. We’ll see whether that happens this time around.
