Welcome to our first installment of our NFL MVP stock watch.
Every Wednesday, we’ll take a look at which direction the best MVP candidates are headed as we go into the next week of games.
For Week 11, we’re guaranteed significant movement. On Thursday night, the Bengals visit the Ravens, giving us Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow squaring off in prime time. The winner will get a boost. The loser? Another rung down the list.
Then, on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs host the Eagles in what could be both a Super Bowl rematch and preview. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have struggled at times this season, and yet both are front-runners at every sportsbook for the sport’s biggest individual accolade.
And let’s not forget about a special rookie having a special season in Houston.
So where does everyone sit headed into Week 11? We break it down below.
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Rising
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports
The No. 2 pick out of Ohio State is on pace to have the best rookie season for a quarterback in history. Stroud ranks second in passing yards (2,626), and has top-10 numbers in QBR (63.3), passing touchdowns (15) and yards per attempt (8.3), while having just two interceptions.
The Texans (5–4) remain a bubble playoff team. But if Houston gets in—and its schedule is far from daunting—Stroud is going to get consideration for MVP, something no rookie quarterback has won.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Hill is a long shot. After all, no receiver has ever earned MVP honors. That said, only one receiver (Detroit’s Calvin Johnson) has ever totaled 2,000-plus yards in a season, and, through nine games, Hill is on pace for 2,032. He’ll need to have some monster games down the stretch, but he’s rolling.
Still, in a year when no quarterback has taken a definitive lead in the race, along with running backs having middling campaigns, Hill is a factor.
Holding steady
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
USA Today Sports
Mahomes has endured a down year by his standards, and yet the Chiefs’ star is the betting favorite in most sportsbooks across the U.S.
Through nine games, Mahomes has thrown for 2,442 yards with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Despite having little in the way of weapons, he’s still on pace for 4,612 yards and 32 touchdowns.
If Kansas City can hold on to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and Mahomes has some big games against a few weak opponents such as the Raiders (twice), Packers, Chargers and Patriots, perhaps Mahomes wins consecutive MVPs.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles
Hurts has the best numbers of anybody when taken in their totality. After finishing second in the MVP balloting last year and earning second-team All-Pro honors, he’s having another strong season.
Hurts has 22 total touchdowns and is on pace for 5,030 total yards. If he keeps up those numbers and leads Philadelphia to the NFC’s top seed, it’ll be hard to keep Hurts from winning the award, especially if Mahomes doesn’t put up big numbers over the next two months.
That said, Hurts and Mahomes will duel this weekend in prime time. If one drastically outshines the other, it’ll have an impact.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Jackson was the league’s first unanimous MVP, winning it in 2019 when he posted 43 touchdowns (36 passing) while leading Baltimore to a 14–2 record.
Since then, Jackson has been good but not great, while also dealing with injuries each of the past two seasons. This year, Jackson has thrived in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system, although he’s on pace for only 3,700 passing yards and 17 touchdowns through the air.
If Jackson continues on that path, he’ll get consideration, but it’ll be tough to actually win MVP.
Falling
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
With three losses against the only good teams the Dolphins have played this year, Tagovailoa’s case is getting tougher to build.
Yes, the numbers are excellent. He has thrown for 2,609 yards, third most in the NFL. He’s also second in the NFL for yards per attempt (8.5) and eighth in QBR (65.0). In short, he’s done a terrific job guiding the highest-scoring offense in the NFL.
Still, this is an award in which the winner typically plays quarterback, has a terrific stat line and guides his team to a tremendous regular season. Tagovailoa currently checks two boxes.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
After struggling mightily over the Bengals’ first six games while dealing with a calf injury, Burrow wasn’t close to being an MVP candidate. Then, suddenly, he surged with tremendous performances against the Bills and 49ers, combining for five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Then came Sunday against the Texans. At home and as a significant favorite, Cincinnati lost 30–27, due in large part to Burrow throwing a pair of ugly interceptions late. While he eclipsed 300 yards, the turnovers are impossible to ignore, along with a loss that puts the Bengals’ playoff hopes in jeopardy.
But having a big game and beating the Ravens on Thursday night would go a long way toward getting Burrow back in the MVP conversation.
