Week 9 saw the top three teams in last week’s rankings — the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — dragged to deep waters by underdog teams. Philadelphia and Kansas City eventually righted their ships en route to ugly wins. Buffalo wasn’t as lucky.
The Bills were 20-17 losers against an ascending New York Jets team that coerced Josh Allen into a pair of costly interceptions. New York got enough from Zach Wilson and a punishing defense to pull off one of this year’s biggest upsets.
That drop didn’t hurt Allen’s team too severely, but it did suggest the gap between the AFC and NFC’s ruling class isn’t as large as we may have thought. Here’s how we’ve got all 32 franchises sorted out as the NFL crashes beyond the halfway mark of the 2022 regular season.
32
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 31
PJ Walker’s magic wore off and he was outplayed by Baker Mayfield in what was effectively 30 minutes of garbage time. Each loss gets D.J. Moore one step closer to a young, viable quarterback, at least.
31
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 32
Houston escapes the basement by virtue of having Dameon Pierce and being roundly competitive against the Eagles for 45 minutes. That’s not terrible for a team whose two top wideouts were Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore.
30
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 22
Sam Ehlinger was sacked nine times in a 26-3 loss. Then Frank Reich was fired. Then Jeff Saturday, whose highest level of coaching experience is at the high school level, was named interim head coach. The Colts would be happy to lose every game from here on out and don’t care who knows it.
29
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 29
Josh McDaniels coaches like a sumo wrestler capable of moving in only one direction. If you sidestep him you get to watch as his momentum carries him off the mat and into the stands. And that’s how you blow three different 17-0 leads in eight games.
28
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 24
George Pickens season is upon Pittsburgh after trading away Chase Claypool. Now we wait and see if the Steelers have plucked yet another high value wideout from the middle rounds of the NFL Draft.
27
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 25
The Packers have an estimated -$5.3 million in effective salary cap space for 2023. At this point, they’ve gotta hope they absolutely nail next year’s draft. Piling up losses will help guarantee them a top 15 selection where they can once again pass up wide receiving help.
26
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 30
Detroit capitalized on Aaron Rodgers’ mistakes — doinking a goal line pass off a defender’s helmet, wildly underthrowing an open David Bakhtiari in the end zone — to effectively crush the Packers’ postseason hopes. After a pair of lackluster losses sandwiched around their bye, the Lions are frisky again. That won’t be enough to save their playoff aspirations, but it could very well ruin someone else’s.
25
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 18
Justin Fields is realizing his potential, even with a depleted group of targets and blockers in Chicago. He’s run for more than 400 yards over his last four games and has thrown five touchdown passes against zero interceptions in his last two. He’s also 0-2 in that stretch because his defense has given up 84 points. That’s OK though — the rest of 2022 is all about setting the franchsie up for a massive 2023 makeover, and a high draft pick can only help.
24
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 20
Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt at 3-5 but games against the Dolphins, Bills and Buccaneers loom before Deshaun Watson can return from the 11-game suspension he’s serving after facing more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as a pattern of “predatory behavior.”
23
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 23
Kyler Murray’s passing efficiency has improved with DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup but it hasn’t made a difference in the standings; Arizona is just 1-2 since Nuk’s return. The Cardinals’ offense isn’t especially efficient and their defense gives up more points than all but one other team in the NFL. If Kliff Kingsbury’s annual late-season slump is coming it could mean a five- or six-win season for a franchise coming off a 2021 playoff appearance.
22
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 26
Russell Wilson looked a bit like his old self in Week 8, but beating the Jaguars in London isn’t exactly the reassuring symbol the Broncos needed to see. Denver remains in real trouble and has to show its Week 9 bye was enough time for this offense to find its way. Otherwise, a stellar defense will be wasted in the franchise’s seventh-straight season without a playoff invitation.
21
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 27
Trevor Lawrence erased the mistakes that had doomed his team in a five-game losing streak and emerged with a come-from-behind win over the Las Vegas Raiders as a result. The Jaguars still have roster holes that need to be filled but have gotten encouraging performances from young contributors. On Sunday it was Travis Etienne’s two touchdowns and Tyson Campbell’s recovery from an awful first half against Davante Adams that proved the difference between a win and loss.
20
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 16
The Saints are like a low-key version of the Broncos — capable of rising behind a solid defense and being undone by an unsettled quarterback position. They’re effectively $66 million over next year’s projected salary cap, per Over The Cap, and don’t have their first round draft pick next spring. This probably isn’t going to get better, but at least the rest of the NFC South is also having a bad time.
19
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 21
The Commanders under Taylor Heinicke are a perfectly competent, if unexciting, team. That doesn’t mean they’ll make the playoffs or even hover around .500 the rest of the year, but it does make the team’s Carson Wentz trade seem less necessary by the week.
18
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 19
Atlanta bludgeoned the Chargers early with their run game, then fell victim to a truly brutal Falcons-ing in the fourth quarter. Marcus Mariota is capable of running effectively, but his inability to hit open targets downfield is a clear detriment. At some point Arthur Smith is going to have to make the switch to Desmond Ridder in order to see if his rookie quarterback can spark some meaningful change in this ground-based offense.
17
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 14
Matthew Stafford completed 48 percent of his passes in Week 9. His 8.9 percent sack rate is the highest of his career by a wide margin. Los Angeles can re-sign Odell Beckham Jr., but it’s not going to make a difference if its offensive line can’t protect a veteran quarterback on pace for 60 sacks this season or create space for a running game whose 3.2 yards per carry ranks 31st in the NFL.
16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 28
Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, though beating the defending champions doesn’t feel as impressive now as it would if you’d described it two months ago. Tampa’s inability to block remains a glaring flaw; while Brady was only sacked once in 59 dropbacks the Bucs’ running backs averaged only 2.6 yards per carry. This team feels rudderless the same way the Rams and Packers do, but Brady’s presence gives it an edge among the NFC’s faded class.
15
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 15
The Patriots’ defense has stabilized despite losing players like JC Jackson and Kyle Van Noy — New England’s 18.4 points allowed per game is tied for sixth-best in the NFL. That number got a boost in Week 9 as Matt Judon and Josh Uche led a pass rush that sacked Sam Ehlinger nine times in a 26-3 win over the freefalling, now-coachless Indianapolis Colts (no, Jeff Saturday doesn’t count, stop it).
14
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 12
Los Angeles is 5-3 but thoroughly untrustable after escaping Atlanta in large part due to a Falcons’ defensive lineman straight-up dropping the ball on what could have been a game-changing fumble recovery. The Chargers’ run defense remains hideous and head coach Brandon Staley has so little to offer Justin Herbert. But, hey, winning record!
13
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 17
Sauce Gardner is every bit as dynamic as the Jets hoped he’d be. His presence has been uplifting for a top 10 defense that just held Josh Allen to under 200 passing yards while recording a pair of interceptions. More importantly, Zach Wilson protected the ball after an awful Week 8 performance against the Patriots and gave New York the stabilizing QB play it needed to pull off a stunning upset vs. the Bills.
12
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 13
Joe Mixon ranked 46th out of 46 running backs when it came to yards after contact in 2022. Then he torched the Carolina Panthers for something like a thousand touchdowns (I’m estimating based on my experience going up against him in fantasy) and suddenly looks rejuvenated. Was that a one-time deal against an overmatched opponent? Or do the Bengals once again have a viable ground threat to back up Joe Burrow’s laser show?
11
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 6
Tennessee lost in Arrowhead Stadium but still gave the Chiefs all they could handle with Malik Willis at quarterback. The Titans’ defense can hang with anyone in the NFL, which gives Mike Vrabel’s “run like it’s an Iowa-Wisconsin game” offensive strategy the launchpad it needs to take flight.
10
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 11
Miami’s defense is a real concern after getting gashed repeatedly by Justin Fields and an undermanned Bears squad. Tua Tagovailoa had another solid game, but he also missed some big throws that could have alleviated some fourth quarter drama and leaves him on the cusp of the circle of trust for at least one more week.
9
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 10
New York’s post-bye schedule starts with games against the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. There’s a very real chance this team gets to 8-2 before a pivotal Week 12 showdown with the Cowboys in Dallas. On the other hand, the Giants are 6-1 in games decided by one score. The winds of regression could soon blow against them — and with limited help in the passing game for Daniel Jones, it could hit New York harder than a Vikings team with a similar profile.
8
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 8
A defense that’s gotten healthier and stronger as 2022 has worn on — recent additions include trading for Roquan Smith and activating Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo from injured reserve — stifled the Saints on Monday night. Baltimore is going to have to hope those trends hold, because its receiving corps is paper thin and Lamar Jackson can’t do all that heavy lifting on his own.
7
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 7
Christian McCaffrey had an extra week to learn the playbook. Eli Mitchell has been designated to return from the injured list. Deebo Samuel spent the bye week healing up. All these weapons have been stockpiled in service to Jimmy Garoppolo throwing screen passes and five-yard drag routes, then crossing his fingers and hoping they go for 60-plus yards and a touchdown.
6
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 5
Geno Smith just keeps getting it done, most notably responding to a third quarter pick-six by leading two straight touchdown drives that sealed Week 9’s win over the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are exceeding expectations in nearly every way and can no longer be overlooked as an NFC contender.
5
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 9
Credit where it’s due; the Vikings were tested by the Commanders and rallied back from a 17-7 fourth quarter deficit to win on the road. At the same time there’s reason to be concerned that Minnesota fell behind against a 4-5 Washington team led by Taylor Heinicke before finally waking up in the final 15 minutes. Either way, the Vikings are 7-1 and on a six-game winning streak where each has come by eight points or fewer. Is that a sign this team can win close games? Or an indicator regression is coming?
4
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 4
The bye week came at the right time for an offense dealing with a handful of nagging injuries. Adding a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. could be an even bigger boost. Even if they don’t get OBJ, the Cowboys’ defense has been potent enough to carry this team through any rough patches.
3
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 2
Getting out-played by Zach Wilson is certainly a concern for Josh Allen, but Buffalo is prone to mid-season lulls as its engine stalls out. Last year the Bills went 2-4 between Weeks 9 and 14 and still rebounded to win the AFC East and thoroughly dismantle the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round. Sunday’s loss isn’t cause for concern … yet.
2
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 3
Patrick Mahomes eventually gritted out a win over a team that rarely makes it easy for him, toppling the Tennessee Titans in overtime Sunday night. He finished that game with 446 passing yards but needed 68 attempts to get there — and only found the end zone once. That’s not quite the offensive explosion Andy Reid was hoping for coming out of his bye week, but it may ultimately say more about a shorthanded Titans team than the Chiefs in 2022.
1
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 1
The Texans hung tight, but the Eagles eventually took care of business on Thursday night. Rookie DT Jordan Davis’ absence was felt as Philly was repeatedly gashed with runs up the middle. That’s a flaw, but not a fatal one should the young, immoveable lineman return to full strength in time for his team’s playoff push.
