This time of year can be dangerous for NFL pundits such as myself. Many are quick to overreact to Week 1 games, labeling teams Super Bowl contenders way too soon.
I still stand by my take, however, of the Houston Texans being legit Super Bowl contenders because of what they displayed in one victory against a very good Indianapolis Colts team. Maybe that one is not an overreaction because of the moves Houston made in the offseason to provide C.J. Stroud with plenty of help. But some pundits might be higher on the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers after Week 1 victories than they were a week ago.
As for other potential overreactions, the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots could possibly make plenty of noise this season after their dominant Week 1 victories. Not many were high on the Vikings heading into the season because of their quarterback situation. But Sam Darnold delivered a near-perfect first game with the Vikings. Does that make them playoff contenders or merely a pesky team? We’ll assess for this week’s winners and losers column.
We’ll also review how coach Jerod Mayo inspired confidence in his Patriots, who blew up many survivor pools across the country after their upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Winners
Minnesota Vikings
I’ll be the first to say my bold—or dumb—prediction of the Vikings finishing 3–14 likely won’t come to fruition because of how well they played in the 28–6 victory against the New York Giants. And I won’t use the excuses of this being one game and the Giants are terrible.
Just wanted to get that out of the way because I noticed a few YouTube videos of Vikings fans mispronouncing my first name and crushing my prediction. I enjoy the banter, and I’m not afraid to make fun of myself for wrong takes. But don’t worry, I’m still Heel-berto (wrestling fans will appreciate the play on words), because my mind hasn’t changed on the Vikings being a nonplayoff team this season.
But let’s start with the positives because the Vikings clearly aren’t a three-win team. They’ll be competitive because of a talented defense and an impressive group of skill players. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores called a flawless game to smother the Giants’ offense early and often.
Now for the turn to negative town. I’m just not sold on Darnold doing what he did to the Giants on a weekly basis. It was a stellar performance, but the schedule will get tougher with upcoming games against the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans. The schedule is tough overall, which is why I wasn’t high on the Vikings. But Kevin O’Connell is a standout coach who’s capable of guiding his team to a few upset wins regardless of the circumstances.
Darnold still has plenty to prove, but him slinging the football with ease at Metlife Stadium after being handed a crappy situation with the New York Jets is one of the best stories from Week 1. It was a perfect start for the Vikings after a tough training camp, which included the season-ending knee injury to rookie QB J.J. McCarthy.
Los Angeles Chargers
Jim Harbaugh’s trend of getting positive results early with new teams continued in his Chargers coaching debut, and it happened in multiple ways during the 22–10 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders.
After having one of the league’s worst rushing attacks last season, the Chargers quickly made life easier for Justin Herbert by committing to the running game. The patience paid off in the fourth quarter when J.K. Dobbins ripped off a few lengthy runs to put the game away. The Chargers ran the ball 27 times compared to the 26 passing attempts for Herbert.
The offensive line is a work in progress, but Los Angeles received a standout debut performance from rookie right tackle Joe Alt, who shined against Maxx Crosby. As for another improvement, the Chargers’ defense put plenty of pressure on Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew II.
The Chargers now get the struggling Carolina Panthers on the road in Week 2. Expect more positive early results for Harbaugh’s crew Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs might be better than last year, and that’s a problem for the rest of the NFL. The quest for a three-peat is alive and well because of a much-improved offense that received plenty of contributions from rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy in the season-opening win against the Baltimore Ravens.
Worthy being a threat downfield and in the backfield will create many favorable matchups for the rest of the pass catchers, including Rashee Rice, who constantly punished the Ravens in the middle of the field. With the extra help offensively, the Chiefs might be able to keep Travis Kelce, now in his 12th season, fresh for the stretch run.
On the defensive side, Kansas City didn’t miss a beat in its first game without L’Jarius Sneed, the new No. 1 cornerback for the Tennessee Titans. The Chiefs were far from perfect in Week 1, and were one toe away from blowing the game to the Ravens. But the talk of the Chiefs possibly being due for a letdown season because of the lengthy playoff runs probably won’t occur. They’ll likely be in the mix again when January rolls around.
New England Patriots
Credit to Mayo for having the Patriots ready for his coaching debut, despite drawing a tough road matchup against the Bengals. They pulled off the 16–10 upset by leaning on running back Rhamondre Stevenson and a stout defense that many wrote off after the team traded edge rusher Matthew Judon to the Atlanta Falcons.
Second-year edge rusher Keion White provided the pass rush and delivered a breakout performance with 2.5 sacks. Safety Kyle Dugger had a game-changing play when he forced the Bengals to fumble to keep them out of the end zone in the second quarter and maintain the momentum for New England.
This recipe might not win many games because they still need Jacoby Brissett and the pass catchers to do their part on a weekly basis. But Mayo inspired confidence in his team by quickly showing them he’s the right man for the job. He got them to execute and play with plenty of effort when many expected them to roll over to Joe Burrow & Co.
If the Patriots manage to build a winning culture in Year 1 of Mayo, with Drake Maye learning from the sidelines, the dark days in the post–Tom Brady era might soon be over for Patriots fans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Many questioned whether Baker Mayfield could continue playing at a high level without the help from former OC Dave Canales, the new coach for the Panthers.
Mayfield answered those questions by picking up where he left off last season, showing a strong grasp of Liam Coen’s offense during the dominant 37–20 victory against the Washington Commanders. The two worked together during their brief stint with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. It didn’t work out for Coen that season, but the familiarity with Mayfield paid off in Week 1, as the offensive unit marched up and down the field against Dan Quinn’s Washington defense.
Yes, it’s one game, but Coen getting quick results from the offense is a telling sign that the Buccaneers will once again be in the mix for an NFC South title.
Losers
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have created two yearly traditions, one being the slow starts in September, which continued with the upset loss to the Patriots.
As for the other tradition, the Bengals have become yearly offseason darlings based on their past achievements and because they have Burrow. They were once again tabbed by many to win the AFC North and contend for a Super Bowl without serious thought to their current issues.
Sure, the Bengals are capable of turning it around, like they have in years past. But we have to stop assuming they’re going to be annual contenders solely because they beat the Chiefs in the playoffs once and advanced to the Super Bowl during the 2021 season. That’s in the past, and this Cincinnati crew has a rusty quarterback with injury concerns. It’s no longer a given that Burrow can stay healthy, and the wrist injury from last season might have given him issues Sunday vs. the Patriots.
As for another concern, Cincinnati’s defense regressed last season and the issues continued in Week 1, with Stevenson running all over Lou Anarumo’s defense as New England dominated the time of possession.
This isn’t a Week 1 overreaction saying the Bengals are going to be bad this season. They will probably fix their issues, but the yearly tradition of labeling them contenders might need to stop if Burrow doesn’t stay healthy and the Bengals don’t make another deep playoff run.
Carolina Panthers
A 37-point blowout in Week 1 isn’t ideal, but wins likely weren’t going to come early in the Canales era.
The real concern here for the Panthers is that the offensive-minded Canales received a disastrous performance from Bryce Young, who missed several throws and had costly interceptions during the 47–10 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Canales was hired because of his track record of getting quarterbacks back on the right path, as he did with Geno Smith and Mayfield. Canales certainly needed to get more from his offense Sunday, but maybe Young isn’t ready to be an NFL starter.
Young won the Heisman Trophy at Alabama and became the top pick in the 2023 draft partly because of his ability to extend plays and make dazzling throws away from the pocket. He didn’t display those traits against the Saints, and rarely did it throughout his tumultuous rookie season.
Yes, the Panthers’ roster is a mess, but at some point, Young needs to show he’s capable of making something out of nothing. He was a skittish quarterback with poor accuracy in Week 1. Not even the brightest offensive coaches can win many games with a signal-caller having those bad tendencies.
It’s way too early to say Canales can’t fix Young, but the Panthers might consider ditching him if they end up with the No. 1 pick again.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were forced to fly 10 hours after a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil while worrying whether their star quarterback will be available for the rest of the season.
Luckily for them, they avoided the ultimate disaster when it was reported that Jordan Love would only miss three to six weeks with his MCL sprain. But their talented roster will now need to win a few games to avoid a poor start that could potentially cost them a playoff berth.
Love quickly proved he’s a franchise quarterback last season by getting many playmakers involved, despite not having a true No. 1 wide receiver. But now those talented pass catchers are going to need to lift the backup, whether that’s Malik Willis, Sean Clifford or a veteran free agent. With those QB options, Green Bay might be underdogs in upcoming games vs. the Colts, Titans, Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. Coach Matt LaFleur named Willis the starter against the Colts.
But there’s still hope because LaFleur is one of the best play designers in the league. Also, they might have found a star playmaker in Jayden Reed, who had a dominant performance against the Eagles. Reed might not be your traditional No. 1 wide receiver, but he’s starting to become the Packers’ version of Deebo Samuel with his speed and versatility. There’s enough talent in Green Bay to keep them afloat while Love recovers from injury.
New York Giants
For those saying it’s too soon to bench Daniel Jones, the Giants have had issues with the 2019 first-round pick since he entered the league. But, once again, the Giants are going to give Jones another chance by sticking with him for Sunday’s game against the Washington Commanders.
The Giants fell for Jones’s one decent season in 2022 and handed him a four-year, $160 million contract extension. Obviously, they have given him many opportunities to prove himself, but it’s time to admit the contract was a mistake and turn to backup Drew Lock after Jones delivered another stinker during the loss to the Vikings.
Brian Daboll’s coaching from the 2022 season is a distant memory and there are now questions about him as an offensive play-caller. It didn’t help that O’Connell made Darnold look like a Pro Bowl quarterback against Daboll’s team. Yes, the rosters are different, but that’s also a reflection on GM Joe Schoen, who might have made the mistake of trading for edge rusher Brian Burns with a team that doesn’t appear ready to contend.
The Giants are partly in this position because they won a few games with Tommy DeVito that prevented them from selecting one of the top three quarterbacks in April’s draft. But that’s no excuse for Schoen because they could have selected Michael Penix Jr. or McCarthy with the No. 6 pick. Instead, they gave Jones another opportunity by drafting wide receiver Malik Nabers to help him on the field. (Nabers delivered a few flashes Sunday to give the Giants some positive takes from Week 1.)
But Daboll and Schoen don’t have time for Jones to figure it out with Nabers and the rest of the offense, and they can’t afford another losing season. The pressure is increasing on the decision makers, especially with team owner John Mara being forced to watch Saquon Barkley make plays for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.
Atlanta Falcons
If you avoided all Falcons news this offseason, you might have thought Arthur Smith was still coaching them by how sluggish the offense played in the ugly 18–10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
But Smith got the last laugh over his former team, because his run-heavy approach worked in his debut as the Steelers’ offensive play-caller. Playing keep away offensively and leaning on a dominant defense might not get you far in the playoffs, but it’s good enough to stack regular-season wins when executed properly.
The Falcons rarely executed Smith’s offensive philosophy during his three seasons in Atlanta, leading them to hire Raheem Morris as head coach and sign Kirk Cousins to a lucrative four-year, $180 million contract. Outside of a Kyle Pitts touchdown, there weren’t many signs of improvement with the new regime. Cousins showed rust from his Achilles injury last season, failing to create a rhythm offensively and throwing a pair of head-scratching interceptions.
Many picked the Falcons to win the NFC South, but they still have plenty of work before they develop into a playoff team.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 1 Winners and Losers: Jim Harbaugh Is Back While Giants, Panthers Face Big QB Problems.
