There are several metrics that suggest Tua Tagovailoa, working with a new head coach and a massively upgraded offense, has made *the leap* in 2022. He leads the league in passer rating (112.7), QB rating (78.7) and yards per pass attempt (9.0). His 313 yards per game he’s been able to finish is second only to Josh Allen. His touchdown and completion rates are both top three.
And when it comes to advanced stats, he stands alone at the top of the quarterback mountain.
Tagovailoa ascended to the No. 1 spot when it comes to overall efficiency this fall, taking advantage of Patrick Mahomes’ week off and Allen’s late struggles against the Green Bay Packers. The Miami Dolphins’ third-year quarterback led his team back from a 10-point halftime deficit (against the Detroit Lions, but still) while throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in Week 8.
That left everyone looking up at a player whose status as a franchise quarterback was uncertain back in August. Tagovailoa is 2022’s top passer so far. Now let’s see who comes next.
We know the data is limited — but it does give us a pretty good idea of who has risen to the occasion this fall. Let’s see which quarterbacks are great and who truly stinks through seven weeks. These numbers are from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats model but compiled by the extremely useful RBSDM.com, run by The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl.
Using expected points added (EPA, the value a quarterback adds on any given play compared to the average NFL result) along with completion percentage over expected (CPOE, the percent of his passes that are caught that aren’t expected to be in typical NFL situations) gives us a scatter plot of 36 quarterbacks (minimum 112 plays) that looks like this:
There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers, making it tough to separate this year’s average quarterbacks into tiers. Here’s my crack at it, but full details follow in the text below.
Tagovailoa and Mahomes, in that order
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins, 0.208 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 0.199
The Dolphins gave Tagovailoa Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and a revamped running back core and said “go nuts.” He has.
The preseason MVP favorite and a guy who was locked in a QB battle with Drew Lock around that time
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 0.180 EPA+CPOE composite
4. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks, 0.152
Allen backslid a bit by dropping his guard in what was effectively garbage time against the Packers. Smith led Seattle past the New York Giants and into first place in the NFC West.
Rising young quarterbacks and guys who'll be backups in 2023
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 0.129 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, 0.129
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers, 0.121
8. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints, 0.116
9. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns, 0.112
The last three names on this list show that these metrics aren’t perfect. Garoppolo, Dalton and Brissett all manage risk well, which helps with their efficiency. None would be preferred choices trailing by 10 points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.
Guys who might get it done in the clutch, but aren't quite in the circle of trust (yes, even 2022 Tom Brady)
10. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons, 0.105 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 0.102
12. Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots, 0.102
13. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, 0.091
14. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.088
15. Daniel Jones, New York Giants, 0.087
Carr slid out of the top 10 after failing to lead even a single drive past midfield in New Orleans. Jones was tasked with throwing the Giants back into the game against Seattle and failed, but still grades out as a top half quarterback for a 6-2 team. Lamar Jackson and Bailey Zappe are in no way equal, but hey, small sample sizes will do that for you.
Flawed, but capable of big things on a given Sunday
16. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, 0.079 EPA+CPOE composite
17. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, 0.076
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 0.070
19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.064
20. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, 0.063
Cousins has a 6-1 team and new toy T.J. Hockenson at tight end, which should provide a boost in what’s been a down year for the prolific 1 p.m. quarterback. Lawrence has fallen back to earth after a hot start, crushing the Jaguars with costly turnovers. So has Goff, but we expected that.
We're all very disappointed in you.
21. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints, 0.055 EPA+CPOE composite
22. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 0.051
23. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, 0.051
24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, 0.051
25. Mac Jones, New England Patriots, 0.049
26. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts, 0.048
27. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.048
28. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, 0.039
29. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos, 0.038
We might have expected Fields and Pickett to be this far down the list. Aaron Rodgers? Matthew Stafford? RUSSELL WILSON AT 29?!? There’s a lot to unpack here, but the overarching lesson is these guys mostly stink right now.
Backups either now or in the near future
30. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers, 0.016 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Joe Flacco, New York Jets, 0.012
32. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys, 0.010
33. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders, 0.007
34. Davis Mills, Houston Texans, 0.002
35. Zach Wilson, New York Jets, -0.002
Rush has since been supplanted by a healthy Dak Prescott, who would clock in right behind Brissett if he’d played enough snaps. Taylor Heinicke has a 0.082 composite and could spur an actual quarterback competition once Wentz is healthy again. Wilson threw three interceptions against New England and his Jets were finally unable to overcome his limitations.
BAKER MAYFIELD
36. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers, -0.042 EPA+CPOE composite
PJ Walker, by comparison, has a 0.019 composite and looks *significantly* better than the quarterback Carolina traded for last offseason.
