With a third of the season behind us, some truths have been realized.
For starters, Lamar Jackson is in firm contention for his third MVP award, rarified air occupied only by Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.
Then there’s Jayden Daniels, who is not only playing like an Offensive Rookie of the Year, but a top-10 quarterback with no ceiling in sight.
Conversely, the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders should be scouting college quarterbacks heavily.
So how do the 32 starting quarterbacks stack up in our rankings? Let’s look at the criteria.
- This isn’t a power ranking based on this season alone. The further we get, the more it matters, but think of it this way … based on historical play and current output, who would I want as my favorite team’s starting quarterback?
- This isn’t just passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions. Those factor in, but we’re also looking at more advanced analytics. Let’s get the full picture.
- I am ranking all 32 quarterbacks every month, sticking to the ones who started the most recent week.
- While I’m writing about all 32 quarterbacks, there will be a special focus on eight who deserve extra attention. Those players are bolded.
For the last rankings, following Week 2, click here. All analytics in the articles are courtesy of RBSDM.
32. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Last ranking: 24
Which stat best illustrates how poorly Watson has played this year? He ranks last in adjusted EPA per play (-0.235), EPA (-0.248) and success rate (33.3%). Prefer standard numbers? Cool. He’s thrown for 170 yards per game, besting only Will Levis and Justin Herbert for quarterbacks who have started all of their team’s games.
Watson is only starting because the Browns can’t accept his guaranteed $230 million deal being a sunk cost. Both the trade and contract for Watson have been catastrophic failures, and one which eventually will see Jameis Winston take over as the starter.
Despite Cleveland being 1–5 and in last place of the AFC North, Watson will start Sunday against the Bengals.
31. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
LR: 31
Nix has struggled to generate much in his first six games. While the Broncos are 3–3, the wins have largely been a product of great defense. The rookie has thrown five touchdowns against five interceptions while throwing for 5.5 yards per attempt, better only than Watson and Levis among starting quarterbacks.
30. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
LR: Not ranked
Rattler made his NFL debut Sunday against the Falcons and showed some moxie. The fifth-round pick out of South Carolina threw for 243 yards against the Buccaneers, completing 55 percent of his attempts with a touchdown and two interceptions. On Thursday, he takes on Denver’s defense, which ranks fourth in the league in scoring defense.
29. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins
LR: Not ranked
Huntley is keeping the seat warm for Tua Tagovailoa. Against the Titans, Huntley was terrible, throwing for 96 yards on 4.4 yards per attempt in defeat. However, he was better in his second start, beating the New England Patriots while going for 194 yards in a 15–10 victory. This week, Huntley draws the Indianapolis Colts, who check in 30th in total yards allowed per game.
28. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
LR: Not ranked
O’Connell has taken the job from Gardner Minshew, but does so as Davante Adams is walking out the door. Last season, O’Connell ranked 25th in EPA (-0.038) and 29th in success rate (42.2%) among quarterbacks with at least 300 plays. The question is whether O’Connell can significantly improve with the addition of experience and rookie tight end Brock Bowers, despite the losses of Adams and running back Josh Jacobs.
27. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
LR: 29
Levis has really struggled in his second season. The Titans did all they could to support him this offseason, signing receiver Calvin Ridley to a $92 million deal along with running back Tony Pollard, while also drafting JC Latham in the first round to bolster the offensive line. Brian Callahan was also brought in as coach, yet Levis has five touchdowns against seven interceptions while posting a 27.3 QBR, better only than Watson.
26. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
LR: Not ranked
Maye made his debut Sunday and the No. 2 pick looked like a prospect worth the hype. While Maye threw two interceptions, he also tossed three touchdowns on a team desperate for offensive talent.
At North Carolina, Maye started two years and threw for 62 touchdowns against 16 interceptions, winning the 2022 ACC Player of the Year. With a good baseline of experience, Maye now tries to revive the Patriots, who have youth at receiver with rookie Ja’Lynn Polk and second-year man Demario Douglas as the top playmakers.
This week, New England draws the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, facing the 31st-ranked defense (32nd against the pass). Maye could have a big day on an international stage to announce his arrival.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
LR: 25
Jones is coming off a torn ACL, and ranks 24th in EPA and 19th in passing yards per game. The Giants have struggled to generate offense beyond rookie sensation Malik Nabers, who is dealing with a concussion. Perhaps once he returns, Jones will see an uptick.
24. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
LR: Not ranked
Dalton deserves a ton of credit. After sitting and watching Bryce Young struggle through two weeks, he has stabilized the offense somewhat in Carolina. He still is averaging a mere 6.2 yards per attempt and 179.2 passing yards per game, well below the NFL average. Yet that’s a huge improvement over what Young was producing.
23. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
LR: 25
Fields has been a tough player to argue for or against. He’s only thrown for at least 200 yards twice in six games. He also ranks higher in EPA per play than Patrick Mahomes. However, it appears the Steelers might go back to Russell Wilson, who is fully healed from a calf injury. But don’t be surprised if Fields gets the job back.
22. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
LR: 16
Lawrence isn’t the only problem in Jacksonville, but he’s certainly been one of them during the Jaguars’ 1–5 start.
Through six weeks, Lawrence ranks 21st in EPA (0.045) and 24th in success rate (44.9%) while sitting 29th in completion rate (60.7%). All those numbers accurately portray what has been a crushing campaign from someone who signed a five-year, $275 million extension this offseason.
Lawrence and the Jaguars are a few more bad games away (maybe just one game away) from having a new coach. And in the case of the quarterback, that would mean his third coach while playing on his rookie deal. Not great.
21. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
LR: Not ranked
Imagine this: It’s 2035, and Flacco is still throwing for 400 yards per game. That feels plausible at this juncture. The 39-year-old sits fourth in EPA and a respectable 15th in success rate despite playing on a battered offense. Anthony Richardson is slated to return from his hip injury in Week 7, but Flacco has once again been more than admirable in the backup role.
20. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
LR: 19
Darnold is the starting quarterback playing for one of the two undefeated teams in the league. Have that on your bingo card? Nobody did. The journeyman may have found a home with the Vikings. He ranks fourth with 11 touchdown passes and is sixth in yards per attempt at 8.1. This week, Darnold draws the Detroit Lions, who suddenly are without Aidan Hutchinson coming off the edge.
19. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
LR: 28
After struggling through his first three NFL starts, Williams has taken off. Yes, he’s beaten the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars, but throwing for 687 yards with seven touchdowns on a 74% completion rate is legitimate. The Bears now have a bye before playing the Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals and Patriots, so Williams could continue his upward trajectory.
18. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
LR: 17
Hurts has been a middling quarterback this season. He sits 18th in adjusted EPA and EPA per play. He’s also 11th in completion percentage and 15th in passing yards per game while tossing six touchdowns and four interceptions.
On a team loaded with talent (albeit not always healthy together this season), Hurts should have better numbers. Philadelphia has also been blessed with a division that is wide open, with the Eagles just a half-game back of the Commanders.
That said, Hurts must play better if Philadelphia is going to contend for anything significant. He’s also been less effective on the ground with two touchdowns through five games after posting double-digit rushing scores in each of the past three years.
17. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
LR: 15
Smith leads the NFL with 1,778 passing yards and yet has just six touchdowns against six interceptions. The Seahawks started 3–0, defeating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins, but have since dropped tilts to the Lions, Giants and San Francisco 49ers.
So what’s the deal with Smith and his team? The analytics are somewhat bullish with Smith ranking 14th in EPA and fifth in success rate. His CPOE is also 10th, tied with Patrick Mahomes.
All told, Smith is putting up big passing yardage but the other numbers are merely good. There’s no reason to panic, but also something to monitor as the Seahawks try to right their proverbial ship.
16. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
LR: 14
Rodgers and the Jets are out of excuses. They’ve fired Robert Saleh and traded for Davante Adams, trying to climb out of a 2–4 hole while being mired in a three-game losing streak.
Through six weeks, Rodgers is 18th with 231.2 passing yards per game. He’s thrown for nine touchdowns, but also five interceptions. The completion rate is 61.8%, sandwiched between Jones and Watson.
Rodgers is also 28th in CPOE, 25th in success rate and 20th in EPA per play. All those figures suggest a 40-year-old with deteriorating skills and a lackluster supporting cast.
15. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
LR: 13
Prescott finished second in MVP voting last year, but things have been tougher this season. He’s 23rd in EPA per play, and completes only 63.4% of his attempts, sitting 26th in the league. Prescott also has three red-zone turnovers over the past two games, crushing Dallas’s offensive production.
14. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
LR: 21
After struggling in Week 1 with what appeared to be anxiousness over his rehabbed Achilles, Cousins is playing much better. The Falcons are 4–2 and Cousins is fifth in passing yards per game and ninth in EPA per play. If Cousins can keep things going with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Atlanta is a divisional contender and perhaps more.
13. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
LR: 7
Murray finally has some real talent around him with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the maturation of Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. Still, the Cardinals are 2–4, but Murray has played well, throwing eight touchdowns against two interceptions. He’s also 10th in success rate and 12th in adjusted EPA per play.
12. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
LR: 6
Stafford has been trying to keep the Rams afloat with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp sidelined most of the season. Unfortunately, Stafford’s effort has largely gone in vain. Los Angeles has a 1–4 mark, and Stafford is 11th in passing yards and 26th in EPA per play.
11. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
LR: 12
After a slow start to the season, Goff has really picked it up. The Lions are 4–1 and Goff has been excellent, sitting sixth in passing yards per game while averaging a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt. With Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, Detroit has one of the NFL’s scariest passing attacks.
10. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
LR: 20
Washington has been waiting generations for a quarterback like Daniels.
Through six games, he’s clearly the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the numbers back it up. He ranks first in EPA per play and sixth in success rate. He’s also tops in completion percentage and CPOE, all while being the best dual threat at the position outside of Jackson.
The wildest part? Daniels is doing all this with an offense lacking real talent sans star receiver Terry McLaurin. If any team should make a big play for a receiver prior to the trade deadline, it’s the Commanders.
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LR: 11
Mayfield has quietly proven to be one of the best signings this offseason. The Buccaneers gave Mayfield $100 million over three seasons to stay, and he responded with a top-10 ranking in completion rate, passing yards per game and yards per attempt. Tampa Bay is 4–2 and tied atop the NFC South, and Mayfield has been the driving force.
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
LR: 8
Herbert is deserving of a top-10 slot even though the numbers are nowhere near his normal level. If Herbert stays at his current pace, he’s going to finish the season with 2,771 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes. That’s basically backup-level production. Yet he’s doing the job because the Chargers have morphed into a run-heavy, defensive team, which asks Herbert to make a few big plays here and there.
7. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
LR: Not ranked
After missing two games after Green Bay’s season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has found his stride. The second-year starter ranks 10th in EPA per play and second in passing yardage per game at 282.8. Surrounded by an excellent coach and a plethora of weapons, Love might lead the Packers on a deep January run.
6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
LR: 9
For those of you who still believe he’s nothing more than a product of Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and playmakers, think again.
Purdy has propped up a Niners team crushed by injuries, throwing for 271.5 yards per game, third in football. He’s also top eight in CPOE, success rate and EPA per play. At some juncture, the narrative around Purdy should be that he’s playing elite football.
At 3–3, Purdy will have an enormous chance to prove himself once more Sunday, with Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town in a Super Bowl rematch.
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
LR: 2
Allen, much like Herbert, is playing great football despite sagging numbers. Without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Allen is pacing for 3,286 passing yards along with 504 rushing yards, which would be his lowest totals since 2020. However, he’s yet to throw an interception while tossing 10 touchdowns, helping the Bills to a two-game lead in the AFC East.
4. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
LR:3
Stroud has developed into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Houston is one of only two AFC teams without at least two defeats, and Stroud has spearheaded the effort. He’s thrown for 262.8 yards per game, eighth-best in football. He’s also seventh in QBR. However, Stroud is 15th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate.
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
LR: 4
Burrow’s Bengals might be 2–4, but the quarterback is playing some of the best ball of his career. After missing the back half of last year with a wrist injury, Burrow has thrown for 12 touchdowns against two interceptions while posting a 75.1 QBR, second-best behind Allen. If he continues this play, he’s going to be in the MVP discussion.
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
LR: 5
We’re getting into rarified air with Jackson. He should be one of the early favorites for another MVP award, as he’s pacing for 4,331 passing yards, easily the highest figure of his career. He’s also on pace for more than 1,000 rushing yards, a figure he’s already hit twice.
The Ravens are 4–2 and the combination of Jackson and running back Derrick Henry is the main reason, especially with the defense struggling badly against the pass. Jackson is beating teams in the air and on the ground in a way he never has before, giving Baltimore one of the league’s best all-around attacks.
Also, the analytics love Jackson. He’s fifth or better in adjusted EPA, EPA per play, EPA+CPOE composite and success rate.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
LR: 1
Mahomes has been uneven to start the year, but nobody would deny he’s the best in football. While throwing for just six touchdowns with six interceptions, Mahomes ranks fourth in success rate and 12th in EPA+CPOE composite. He’s also faced one of the league’s toughest schedules while being without Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice for large chunks of time. In the end, Mahomes should be excellent as usual.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Quarterback Rankings: Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy Surge to Top Tier.
