There’s no position more important to NFL success than quarterback. Finding a young star at the position can all but guarantee future playoff contention. Failing to do so is a recipe for lost games and longshot bids to find someone worthy of carrying an offense.
This can lead to tenuous job security for the league’s most embattled quarterbacks. Some bad passers don’t have to worry thanks to a previous track record of success. Others are entrenched thanks to massive contracts (Russell Wilson, hello).
But like the coaches set to be fired come Black Monday, there’s a subset of starting quarterbacks whose jobs are on the line this fall. Some can hide like a foundering ship in safe harbor thanks to depth charts without a better option to replace them. Others could give way to understudies following particularly uninspiring performances.
So who’s at risk? Let’s talk about this year’s bad quarterbacks, ranging from least to most susceptible to an in-season demotion in 2023.
6
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Waiting in the wings: Tim Boyle
Wilson’s only here because of Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles tear. Boyle’s only here because NFL executives have some sort of ongoing bet that ties him to Rodgers’ orbit, for some reason.
Let’s start with Wilson, who has outperformed expectations over a 2-1 stretch by … being the 27th-best quarterback in the league, per RBSDM.com. The former second overall pick has avoided disaster, at least comparatively, but thrown for just two touchdowns in that stretch while turning the ball over twice. He’s been sacked nine times his last two games and led exactly one touchdown drive of more than 10 yards in those wins.
Fewer than 30 percent of Wilson’s passes travel at least 10 yards downfield, showcasing a conservative, risk-averse gameplan that allows his defense to win the day for him. That’s the best the Jets can hope for, but there’s a definite ceiling to that — as anyone who watched the last two seasons of New York football can attest. The problem is, unless Aaron Rodgers makes a miraculous recovery, this is what the team is stuck with.
There’s little to suggest there’s a better option available to the Jets. Kirk Cousins is reportedly content to exercise his no-trade clause and remain in Minnesota. The most notable quarterbacks on the open market in October are some combination of Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy and Joe Flacco. The other passer on the roster deserves a deep dive unto himself, but not in a good way.
Boyle’s ongoing NFL career is one of the biggest mysteries in the sport. He slides under the radar because he’s not as out-and-out awful when pressed into action as, say, Nathan Peterman. But his status in the league is baffling for a player who threw 12 touchdown passes and 26 interceptions across four seasons of college football spent at Connecticut and Eastern Kentucky.
He’s now in his sixth season as a pro, despite 106 career passes and a 54.5 passer rating that suggests he should have been drummed out to the USFL long ago. Instead, he’s bounced from Rodgers backup to Rodgers opponent (seasons with the Lions and Bears) to Rodgers backup once more. That’s all a very interesting piece of football ephemera, but it in no way qualifies him to take over anywhere — not even an offense run by Zach Wilson.
5
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Waiting in the wings: Tyson Bagent, Nathan Peterman
Being a Bears fan is a torturous existence. Case in point: Fields had finally started to claim his potential after two strong performances in Weeks 4 and 5. A game against the Minnesota Vikings offered the chance to solidify his grip on the position and push Chicago out of the NFC North basement. Instead, Fields was ineffective for three quarters before leaving the game due to a dislocated thumb.
That gave Bagent the opportunity to shine in his first pro action, but he looked like an undrafted free agent from a Division II program on the field. The preseason star led one touchdown drive but also gave up a strip-sack touchdown and threw a game-sealing interception on a bad throw in Vikings territory late.
An extended injury to Fields — likely, as there’s currently no timetable for his return — would create a quarterback competition between Bagent and Peterman, a familiar circle of hell for Chicago fans who once watched Moses Moreno and Steve Stenstrom compete to fill the void left behind by, sigh, Erik Kramer. With little to gain by starting Peterman, let’s assume the job would go to and stay with Bagent — a win/win (comparatively), as either he impresses and earns his spot going forward or fails and pumps up the team’s draft stock for another potential quarterback selection next spring.
But if Fields returns and plays like he did early in the season and early against the Vikings, Bagent might get some extra audition time anyway. Fields had a 67.7 passer rating, only 526 passing yards and a 3:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first three games of the year as head coach Matt Eberflus failed to build an offense that played to his strengths. He was, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play, only better than one starting quarterback: Zach Wilson.
He shot up to fourth place in Weeks 4 and 5, then struggled badly against the Vikings’ pressure in Week 6 before exiting the game; his 14 dropbacks resulted in zero touchdowns, one interception, four sacks and 40 net yards. In a season where the Bears hoped he’d grab the brass ring and emerge as a franchise quarterback, those numbers are thoroughly unacceptable.
If Bagent shows growth and, importantly, grasps the system Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy keep trying to force Fields into, he could move up the depth chart. That wouldn’t be the end of the Fields era in Chicago, but it could herald it if, indeed, this team sinks to the top of the 2024 draft class and winds up in prime position to take a quarterback.
The man the Bears once hoped was the future is less secure than ever thanks to injury and underperformance. He’s still the team’s best option at quarterback — but that might actually be a hinderance for a 1-5 team.
4
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
Waiting in the wings: Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph
Through five weeks Pickett was, statistically, the league’s worst starting quarterback. This is a wild thing to be in a league with Mac Jones in it. He is also 3-2 and leads an offense currently in the thick of the AFC playoff race.
This is the Pickett conundrum. He is bad but not hopeless. He occasionally rises to expectations, saving his three or four great throws per game for big moments that swing the momentum of the game in the Steelers’ favor. He’s also taken a step backward as a scrambler and is much more likely to launch a deep ball well over the head of his target than into his hands.
So, lots to unpack there. I took a crack at it last week and unraveled what Pickett is doing wrong (lots) and what he’s doing right (a handful of encouraging, game-saving throws!). The second-year quarterback struggles with putting his passes on the money and his 24 percent bad throw rate is second-worst in the NFL. But every now and then he’ll uncork a perfect back-shoulder laser to the sideline in tight coverage or identify a cover-zero situation before uncorking a beautiful deep ball (George Pickens is typically involved).
With this Steeler defense intact, a handful of proper well-timed throws has been enough to earn a winning record (and 2-0 performance against the AFC North). But that’s not a sustainable strategy for a team whose wins count in the standings but hardly build confidence.
The problem is Pittsburgh has no better option. Trubisky is the king of untrustable offenses, a player who can operate within a system and occasionally thrive but who mostly erases his small victories with massive failures — often with the kind of determination and drive you only see in success. Rudolph is a larger version of Chad Henne. Either might outplay Pickett for a couple quarters or a game, but neither will inspire confidence in the process.
Thus, the frustration continues. But it will be dotted with moments like this:
He is him.
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/T87FSnfvVk pic.twitter.com/A5hX9eOSD2
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 8, 2023
So it could be worse.
3
Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals
Waiting in the wings: Clayton Tune, Kyler Murray (once healthy)
This is a bit of a cheat, as Dobbs was always intended to be a seat warmer while Murray rehabilitated a torn ACL. But the journeyman backup impressed over his first three weeks, playing above-average ball and leading the Cardinals to a competitive 1-2 record that made them one of the most entertaining tank jobs in the league.
He’s since crashed back to earth. Dobbs had a passer rating of 99.4 and an EPA/play of 0.089 (16th best among QBs) in his first four games. He’s at a 58.1 rating and -0.334 EPA/play (30th) since then — a pair of double-digit defeats.
Dobbs was never meant to be a full-time option. The intrigue here is if the guy who is supposed to be will take over. With a depleted roster, there’s no rush to bring Murray back to the lineup. If he needs a full year to get his knee right, well, that’s just fine for Arizona.
Murray’s return could serve as a bit of an audition when it eventually happens. While the two-time Pro Bowler signed a five-year, $230 million contract just last year, his 2022 regression and subsequent turnover among the coaching staff may make him vulnerable to replacement. He’s no longer owed guaranteed money after 2024, and this spring’s crop of quarterback talent could prove too tempting for an Arizona team with multiple high-value first round picks to pass up.
That would also hinder his trade value, but in a league where Houston can get three first round picks for a player like Deshaun Watson staring down more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself would later describe as “predatory behavior,” there’s still reason to believe a promising young-ish starting quarterback could still bring back a useful return.
The mystery man in Arizona is Tune, a rookie fifth round pick who failed to beat out Dobbs in training camp. He completed just 57 percent of his passes during the preseason for an inefficient six yards per attempt, which doesn’t portend first-year success. Still, there’s no harm in trying when you’re the Cardinals and 2023 is a washout anyway.
2
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Waiting in the wings: Bailey Zappe, Will Grier, Malik Cunningham
Perhaps the only thing keeping Jones in the catbird seat is the lack of options behind him. A modest start to the season — four touchdowns, two interceptions and a pair of one-possession losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins — has given way to a deluge of awful play. Between Weeks 3 and 6, he’s been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.
By a wide margin.
The problem is Bailey Zappe, the team’s backup coming into the season who’d outperformed expectations as a rookie, has been even worse. Here’s what that chart looks like if you drop the bar for entry to 18 snaps — the total Zappe played in two relief outings during blowout losses — at quarterback:
There are very few quarterbacks in the NFL who make Jones look good by comparison. One is his backup. It’s gotten so bad that Grier (zero NFL passes since 2019, a 33.8 career passer rating) and Cunningham (undrafted rookie) have both become viable options.
The good news for the Patriots is, well, there’s a solid crop of quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft class and each awful Jones outing draws them closer to a premier draft spot — after six weeks, they hold the sixth overall pick and only two of their final 11 games come against teams that currently have sub-.500 records. Things will stay bad no matter who is throwing the passes, so there’s no strategic loss in throwing Cunningham into the fire and seeing if Bills Belichick and O’Brien can generate any kind of meaningful production from a player who was a prolific but flawed dual threat passer in four seasons as Louisville’s starter.
Either way, this is uncharted territory for the Pats. Jones was supposed to rebound without Matt Patricia’s influence to taint him. Instead his passer rating is 10 points below last year’s lost season as he keeps rebuilding his pro career with lower and lower ceilings.
He’ll have the chance to turn things around because everyone around him somehow stinks worse. Every Mac Jones start from here on out isn’t an endorsement of his abilities. It’s a sigil of just how bad things have gotten in New England.
1
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Waiting in the wings: Malik Willis, Will Levis
Asking for a return to the dizzying, unexpected heights of 2019 was asking a bit much, but Tannehill has been playing at a sub-Miami level in terms of his career hagiography through six-plus games. Then he left Week 7’s tilt with the Baltimore Ravens due to injury, further tossing his future as a Titan into question.
Before getting hurt, Tannehill had vacated the consistency that had previously guaranteed Tennessee between nine and 12 wins annually. He’d recorded an expected points added (EPA) total of negative-10 or worse twice in the team’s first five games and an EPA of nine or better … twice. He still does things well, but he doesn’t do those things often enough to keep the Titans competitive even in a disheveled (always) AFC South.
Part of what’s holding Tannehill back will also make life hell for his replacement. Tennessee boasts a below-average receiving corps led by a 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins whose catch and success rates are each the lowest they’ve been since 2017.
Behind him are mostly untapped balls of potential in Chigoziem Okonkwo and Treylon Burks, neither of whom has shown the consistency to match their talent. In front of everyone is an offensive line that’s clearing less space than ever for Derrick Henry and forcing Tannehill into his highest sack rate (10.7 percent) as a Titan.
This is a problem when Tennessee’s quarterback is tasked with making big throws downfield in an effort to erase second half deficits — which Tannehill has faced in five of six games this season. He’s throwing deeper in 2023 than he has in any of the last four years, which is encouraging. His completion rate on those throws (10-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage) has dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to just about 50 in 2021 and 2022 to 44.4 this year, which is not.
The Titans didn’t initially tip their hand as to which recent Day 2 draft pick they preferred as Tannehill’s understudy. Both Willis and Levis were listed on the team’s unofficial depth chart in the QB2 slot headed into last Sunday. But after Tannehill’s departure, Willis — who’d played two snaps on the season to Levis’s zero — was the man who got the call. His output when he had time to throw was encouraging — five attempts, 78 yards (though the bulk came on a Tyjae Spears screen pass, which wasn’t exactly challenging) — but he had as many completions and sacks taken and generally looked like an overwhelmed young passer.
Despite that, his 0.2 expected points added (EPA) per play matched Lamar Jackson’s and his scrambling ability (three carries, 17 yards) was useful. That should be enough to keep him Mike Vrabel’s huckleberry for a post-bye Week 8 start if Tannehill can’t play … except Vrabel made it fairly clear Willis wasn’t quite his huckleberry by drafting Levis with the second pick of the second round this spring.
Vrabel’s already compared Tannehill’s injury to the one he suffered last season, which threw Willis into action for three underwhelming starts and necessitated the selection of the former Kentucky quarterback. If the Tannehill’s ankle indeed keeps him off the field, at least the Titans’ young passers have 14 days to prepare for their next appearance.
