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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Christian D'Andrea

NFL QB Rankings, Week 6: Joe Burrow, no longer the league’s worst quarterback

Brock Purdy emerged as the NFL’s most efficient quarterback after Week 4. Then he faced a dominant Dallas Cowboys defense and strengthened his grip on the top spot.

Purdy carved up the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, roasting the ersatz NFC contenders with 252 passing yards and four touchdowns on only 24 attempts. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott struggled against a smothering San Francisco defense and merely “good” performances from Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa helped the second-year pro and former 262nd overall pick widen his lead over the field.

So who else might catch him? Fortunately, we’ve got the data to learn who might be charging into his rear view.

Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 80 snaps in five weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author.

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

1
A very difficult MVP race to explain to someone from summer 2022

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.260 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.213

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.205

2
Two guys we expected to be here and two comeback stories (that may not last)

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.165 EPA + CPOE composite

5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.150

6. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.146

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.145

Mahomes keeps churning out hits, though his numbers could drop if Travis Kelce misses any time. Herbert is doing work under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and the loss of Mike Williams will be at least partially offset by the return of Austin Ekeler. Mayfield remains a top-five quarterback thanks to the Bucs’ bye week.

Lest we start believing Wilson is fixed, here are his EPA numbers by quarter:

  • first quarter: 0.788 (best among starting quarterbacks)
  • second: 0.102 (16th)
  • third: -0.293 (29th)
  • fourth: 0.093 (18th)

Exclude garbage time snaps from his fourth quarter numbers and that number drops to -0.416, worst in the NFL. Woof.

3
Absolutely vital to an NFC title

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.135 EPA + CPOE composite

9. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.125

Goff is quietly building his case for MVP consideration. Hurts hasn’t been as proficient a passer as he was last season, but the Eagles are 5-0 which makes it difficult to complain.

4
Guys who can get you to the playoffs, but you don't quite trust

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

10. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.099 EPA + CPOE composite

11. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.097

12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.092

13. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.089

14. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.083

15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.077

16. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.074

17. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.074

Prescott got abused by the 49ers’ defense and slid out of the top 10. Jackson got abused by his own receiving corps’ lack of hands and did as well (though the Steelers’ pass rush played a role). Cousins didn’t turn the ball over in Week 5, which isn’t as good as a win but suggests the football gods may no longer actively hate him. Minshew has proven to be perfect Anthony Richardson insurance for the Colts, and it looks like he’ll have the chance to add more data to that hypothesis in coming weeks.

5
The guys we expect more from

Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

18. Deshaun Watson: 0.060 EPA + CPOE composite

19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.059

20. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.056

21. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.055

22. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.052

23. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.050

24. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.050

Upward mobility here is key for a couple young passers. Trevor Lawrence took a step toward being the player we’d all expected by lighting up a depleted Bills defense in London. He got Calvin Ridley looking like a WR1 once more, which may be key to the Jaguars’ contention hopes.

Fields rose from the league’s worst quarterback to a top 20 spot in a matter of two weeks. If he can keep riding DJ Moore and a playbook that actually includes designed runs he could finish 2023 as an above-average starter.

6
It's not good.

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.034 EPA + CPOE composite

26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.033

27. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.026

28. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.024

29. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.022

30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.020

31. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.014

Burrow either healed more quickly than anyone hoped or learned to work around the limitations of the calf injury that had stunted his passing game over the first four weeks of the season (it’s the latter). He took Ja’Marr Chase’s “always open” comment to heart, hitting his WR1 up for 15 catches and three touchdowns in a 317-yard performance — easily his best of the year … albeit against an understaffed Cardinals team.

And hey, Zach Wilson is a top 30 quarterback! That’s wildly faint praise but also something we haven’t been able to say about him often.

7
Might be time for a new franchise QB

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

32. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.004 EPA + CPOE composite

33. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.004

At least Pickett hasn’t gotten benched in back-to-back 30-plus point blowout losses.

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