Two things stand about about the NFL’s quarterback pecking order after four weeks. Brock Purdy probably can’t be this good. And Joe Burrow certainly isn’t this bad.
Purdy has ascended to the top spot in the rankings, supplanting Tua Tagovailoa following Sunday’s weak showing against a brutal Buffalo Bills defense. He’s utilizing his playmakers to perfection and, importantly, making his deep shots count, connecting on all five of his throws of 10-plus yards in a rout of the Cardinals — and winging all five completions to a rising Brandon Aiyuk.
Burrow, sputtering engine behind the 1-3 Cincinnati Bengals, has moved in the opposite direction. He has a single completion on only 10 passes that have traveled at least 20 yards downfield and is completing only 31.5 percent of his throws that make it 10-plus yards from the line of scrimmage. A nagging calf injury has left him a mess and stars like Ja’Marr Chase underutilized and frustrated.
We’re roughly a quarter of the way through the 2023 regular season and there’s plenty of time for things to change. But as it stands Purdy looks like the second coming of Tom Brady and a hobbled Burrow is playing like slightly shorter Brock Osweiler. This would be very difficult to explain to someone just a year ago, yet here we are. The NFL is a weird place, man.
What about the 32 players between them in the rankings? We’ve got advanced stats that can tell us where they stand after four games.
Let’s talk about these numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 34 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 64 snaps in four weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
1
A genuinely strange MVP race
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.249 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.212
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.212
Purdy’s rise has pushed Brandon Aiyuk to the brink of stardom. He’s used the fourth-year wideout to bump his average target distance up by a full yard and make the intermediate and deep throws he only rarely showcased as a rookie. Tagovailoa backslid because the Bills beat the crap out of him. Allen rose because he used Stefon Diggs to beat the crap out of the Dolphins.
2
I'm not convinced by at least a third of this group, but the numbers like them
4. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.177 EPA+CPOE composite
5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.150
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.145
7. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.140
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.135
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.134
Wilson’s drop-off from the first half to the second wasn’t nearly as big a problem against the Bears as it had been in the first three games of the season, but he has yet to play four cohesive quarters of great football. Mayfield’s revival may not be sustainable, but it’s nice to see he’s rediscovered his sense of pressure and ability to escape it. Mahomes is being let down by his supporting cast; I wrote all about it here.
3
Guys who could, maybe even should be even better
10. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.129 EPA+CPOE composite
11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.112
12. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.109
13. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.106
Jackson would be even higher if his teammates could stay healthy. Cousins could be even higher if his offense wasn’t turning the ball over at a historic rate. Dobbs might be even higher if he weren’t playing for a team that appeared destined to tank its way through 2023.
Hurts *should* be better. He’s got time to figure it out, especially at 4-0.
4
A dense and diverse middle class
14. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.092 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.088
16. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.082
17. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.071
18. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.070
19. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.067
20. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.063
21. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.060
You can probably make it to the playoffs with these guys. After that, it’s a crapshoot.
5
Showing signs of life
22. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.038 EPA+CPOE composite
23. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.032
24. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 0.032
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.032
26. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.031
27. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.030
28. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.028
29. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.021
30. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.015
The results here have been mostly negative — Lawrence’s regression is especially concerning — but have also come with some silver linings. Tannehill is occasionally good! Wilson overcame low expectations against the Chiefs! Fields was nearly perfect against the Broncos (for one half)!
But ultimately, yeah, rough scene so far for these guys.
6
It's not good.
31. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.004 EPA+CPOE composite
32. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.002
33. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: -0.005
34. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: -0.009
Richardson is better than the numbers give him credit for, though his 21.4 percent bad throw rate is fourth-worst among starters so far. Pickett and Ridder have been disastrous and unable to create space for their run games to operate (though for Pickett it may not matter as his offensive line is butt). Burrow, well, see the intro. He’s stuck down here as long as he can’t throw deep or even intermediate passes with confidence.
