Joe Burrow is not the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s not even close.
But as he limps through a calf injury, he’s playing several leagues below his own standard. And, according to advanced stats, is the league’s least accurate, most damaging passer through three weeks.
These stats don’t have a learning curve. They aren’t measuring Burrow’s toughness and ability while playing through an injury that’s sapped his mobility and left him lagging on the downfield throws he used to be able to step into and deliver on a line. What they do measure is the fact he’s completed just one of 10 deep balls, his average completion distance is down to a minuscule 3.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and that, despite throwing shorter passes than all but two other quarterbacks, he’s completing a career-worst 55 percent of his attempts.
Thus, Burrow sinks to the bottom of these rankings despite gritting out a win and being smart enough to let Ja’Marr Chase carry him on a night where he couldn’t be himself. Tua Tagovailoa, on the other hand, has risen to the top by effectively declaring himself Snow Miser in the Miami Dolphins’ blizzard offense. In between are 32 other quarterbacks, ranked and ordered thanks to advanced stats.
Let’s talk about these stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 34 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 48 snaps in three weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
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TUA
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.265 EPA + CPOE composite
Mike McDaniels built a scheme that combines the best parts of the offense from which he plucked Tyreek Hill (namely, having Tyreek Hill) and the one he left behind in San Francisco. The result is an aerial attack tailor made for Tagovailoa, who emerged as an MVP frontrunner in betting markets even before hanging 70 points on the Broncos.
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Other MVP candidates
2. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.184 EPA + CPOE composite
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.178
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.155
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.153
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.147
Purdy continues to prove his rookie season was no fluke, mixing accurate passing with strong reads and veteran pocket awareness. Herbert has Kellen Moore calling his plays now and the result has been palpable. Allen and Mahomes remain machines as both shake off opening week losses. Goff’s revival has persisted for another year and now his Lions are NFC North frontrunners, which is wild.
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The curious case of Russell Wilson
7. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.145 EPA + CPOE composite
Russell Wilson’s EPA + CPOE composite in the first two quarters: 0.305, second best in the NFL
Russell Wilson’s EPA + CPOE composite in the final two quarters: 0.001, 30th
Russ’s improvisation and off-script skills may not be what they used to be.
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Kinda/sorta trustable, sure
8. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.135 EPA + CPOE composite
9. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.128
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.128
11. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.118
12. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.113
13. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.109
Smith has rebounded from a weak Week 1 showing. Cousins has passed for more yards than anyone but his offense has been crushed by turnovers in scoring position. Prescott was flying through two weeks and then did a passable Cousins impression in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
Love is falling back to earth thanks in part to three forgettable quarters against the New Orleans Saints. Then he put together three fourth quarter scoring drives and renewed hope that he could be *the guy* as early as this winter.
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How did Jalen Hurts wind up here?
14. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.094 EPA + CPOE composite
15. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.088
16. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.085
17. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.077
Dobbs is exceeding everyone’s expectations and Garoppolo and Carr have proven to be roughly interchangeable. The bigger mystery is Hurts, who is already halfway to his 2022 interception total (three) while posting a career-low touchdown rate (3.2 percent, 19th best in the NFL).
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A genuinely weird group
18. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.065 EPA + CPOE composite
19. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.063
20. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.060
21. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.057
Stroud has staked his claim as the best rookie quarterback of 2023. Dalton persists, and would probably pretty useful with, say, the New York Jets despite his general averageness. Jones is untrustable but, at the very least, better than he was last year. Congratulations to Watson for joining the top 20 for the first time since becoming a Brown, a team that acquired him despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior.”
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Young guys we're watching develop and older guys we're beginning to worry about
22. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.033 EPA + CPOE composite
23. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 0.032
24. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.031
25. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.020
26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.018
27. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.010
28. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.004
The stats suggest the overall impact between Minshew and Richardson isn’t starkly different, and given the latter’s extreme room to grow he should be able to product similar results to his veteran backup. Stafford is trapped behind an inconsistent offensive line and saddled with a truly weird group of skill players, so it’s not too surprising to see him down here.
It *is* surprising to see Lawrence, who could have been an MVP candidate had he taken the next step forward in his development after a strong 2022. Instead he’s struggled (as have his wideouts and blockers) and the Jaguars have one of the least efficient offenses in the NFL.
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Not good.
29. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: -0.002 EPA + CPOE composite
30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: -.006
31. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: -.007
32. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: -0.010
33. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: -0.012
Tannehill sandwiched a strong Week 2 start between two disasters. The rest of this group is young players currently proving they shouldn’t be franchise quarterbacks.
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Man, that calf must really be a problem
34. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals EPA + CPOE composite
See above. Burrow’s deep and intermediate games have been crushed by his lower leg injury (at least, let’s hope that’s what it is). He’s completed just 32 percent of his throws that travel at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He’s not the league’s worst quarterback, but after three weeks, yeah, he sort of is.
