Week 2 marked Tua Tagovailoa’s ascension to betting favorite in the 2023 NFL MVP race. The advanced stats agree — albeit across a small sample size.
Tagovailoa has been this season’s most efficient quarterback, even after the New England Patriots knocked him off his torrid Week 1 pace in a 24-17 Miami victory Sunday night. While that’s a bit of a surprise, it may not be as shocking as the quarterbacks who sit in third and fourth place through two games: 1-1 Jimmy Garoppolo and the man he beat to get that lone win, Russell Wilson.
So yes, the data isn’t quite bulletproof as we use advanced stats to get a better picture of which quarterbacks are outplaying expectations this fall. Garoppolo’s short-pass, risk-averse style has always performed well in terms of expected points added (EPA), and after getting a boost from the San Francisco 49ers’ core of playmaking targets he’s now got a rocket in the form of Davante Adams strapped to him. Garoppolo had just a 40.9 passer rating when targeting any Raiders not named Adams and threw two interceptions on short passes intended for his running backs. He doesn’t belong here.
Neither does Wilson, whose cold finishes have left the Broncos foundering once again. No quarterback in the league is more efficient in the first two quarters of the game, where the veteran’s 0.628 EPA/play is by far the best in the league. In the final two quarters that number drops to -0.081: 24th-best among starters.
Let’s talk about these stats. EPA is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength, considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is CPOE, which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 32 snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this (plus whatever Jordan Love is doing in the upper left corner):
With a slightly larger sample size at play, this week’s rankings will sort this year’s qualified quarterbacks by a composite of their EPA and CPOE scores. Tua Tagovailoa stands at the top. Zach Wilson is the anchor at the bottom. Here’s how each passer sorts out in between.
1
Yeah man, it's weird up here
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.208 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.198
3. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.193
4. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.178
Tagovailoa has been efficient and occasionally prolific. Prescott has come back from an outlier year in terms of turnovers. Garoppolo is … whatever.
Why Russell Wilson doesn’t belong here, a story in two charts. First, his first half performances:
And now, his second halves:
Hmmm. Gross.
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Trustworthy, and whatever Jordan Love is
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.168 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.168
7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.167
8. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.162
Allen came back online against the Raiders and Goff played well despite snapping his interception-less streak in a loss to the Seahawks. The bigger concern here is Love, who EPA loves (0.478 per play, tops in the league) but is completing 8.6 percent less of his passes than a typical quarterback. That’s got him stuck in the weird phantom zone above while fans are left to debate whether he’s actually good or not.
3
A hodgepodge of guys you kinda trust
9. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.149 EPA+CPOE composite
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.148
11. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.147
12. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.135
13. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.114
Smith rebounded from a weak debut to prove he’s still the efficient and capable starter he was in 2022. Cousins’ turnover concerns linger and he’s 0-2, but it’s not stupid to think he could turn the Minnesota offense around behind Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and whatever the Vikings can wring from a presently putrid rushing game. Lamar’s got deep targets now, which rules.
Herbert is trending upward in Kellen Moore’s offense and Mayfield is, well, surprising to see here but he understands the fastest way to do anything in the Bucs’ offense is to chuck it up to Mike Evans and hope for the best. It’s working, so into the top 10 he goes.
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Oh, so that's where Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts landed
14. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.091 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.083
16. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.083
17. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.082
Mahomes has been comparatively low wattage but only had Travis Kelce in the lineup for one game and was plagued by drops in the other. Hurts is throwing deeper passes in 2023 than any other season as a pro but those attempts have yet to pay off — which seems like a safe bet with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in the lineup.
Howell has been a pleasant surprise after leading a pair of comeback wins for Washington. He may be building toward something greater for the Commanders. Or maybe he’s just happy Dan Snyder’s gone and it’s shining through his offense.
5
They could be worse. They could be better
18. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.067 EPA+CPOE composite
19. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.057
20. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.055
21. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals: 0.051
Stafford’s stuck here but has looked downright spry after missing much of 2022 due to injury. Jones intersperses stretches where he looks capable with momentum-crushing mistakes. Ridder gets enough done to free up the Falcons’ run game and Dobbs may be engineering the most fun tank job the NFL has ever seen.
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Hovering around respectability
22. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.020 EPA+CPOE composite
23. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.020
24. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.019
25. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.010
26. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.005
27. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.004
28. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: -0.001
This tier is about what you’d expect … until you get to the very end. In the midst of young passers and iffy veterans stands Lawrence, the man who led Jacksonville to a Divisional Round playoff game in 2022 and was primed for a breakout in 2023. The Chiefs were able to shut him down in Week 2, but it’s worth noting Lawrence loves a good comeback story — whether that’s through last year’s regular season or facing a 27-0 deficit against the Chargers in the playoffs.
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We're all very disappointed you're here
29. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: -0.012 EPA+CPOE composite
30. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: -0.014
31. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: -0.020
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: -0.021
Burrow hasn’t completed a deep ball yet this season and may miss time due to the calf injury that’s lingered since the preseason. Watson has been a disaster on the field and remains the guy whose departure from Houston was hastened by more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior.”
The Bears have no idea what offense to run for Justin Fields and Fields has no idea how to run their offense. Wilson is Zach Wilson, who is one of the worst NFL quarterbacks to be.
