We have a new worst starting quarterback in the 2023 NFL regular season. To no one’s surprise, it’s Zach Wilson.
Wilson has spent the bulk of the year shrinking from an unexpected spotlight with the New York Jets. After beginning the season as Aaron Rodgers’ understudy, he’s since emerged to prove New York right to trade a bevy of draft picks to the Green Bay Packers for even a whiff of Aaron Rodgers and the hope he brought.
Week 9 left his crapulence on full display. A Monday Night Football showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers saw Wilson’s inability to generate plays downfield and his utter lack of pocket awareness slam into each other like two drunk aunts trying to Cupid Shuffle in the fourth hour of a wedding reception.
He was sacked eight times and struggled even when protected. As a result, the Jets made it four straight games with 10 points or fewer in regulation in games where their overtaxed defense can’t generate multiple turnovers.
Wilson’s the worst, but who’s the best? A lackluster season of quarterback play has left that up for debate. Advanced stats suggest Jalen Hurts is coming for the crown — but that he’ll have to slide past, huh, Brock Purdy to get there.
Let’s talk about those stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 144 snaps in nine weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
MVP candidates, sorta
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.191 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.184
3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.161
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.157
A San Francisco bye week meant Purdy wouldn’t lose more ground, but he’s thrown five interceptions his last three games and is decidedly not the league’s best quarterback. If you have a quarrel with these stats, well, that’s a pretty good place to start.
Hurts, on the other hand joined the top three after an uneven September. He’s got six touchdowns and zero interceptions his last two games while completing 75 percent of his passes and adding, as expected, a rushing touchdown to the mix.
Yeah, that MVP race is wide open. Also, poor Kirk.
5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.150 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.142
7. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.134
Mahomes is merely good and not great, which qualifies as a slump for him. Prescott torched the Eagles for 374 yards and three touchdowns last week, though he failed to complete a double-digit fourth quarter comeback in a performance that will only feed the doubts that haunt him. Cousins is done of the season, but heads into free agency on the heels of arguably his finest performance as a pro.
A rising upper-middle class (and the actual halfway point MVP)
8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.117 EPA+CPOE composite
9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.115
10. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.111
11. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.110
12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.103
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.102
Jackson has been absolutely dealing and, if the season ended today, would have one hell of an MVP case. Over the last three weeks the Ravens have absolutely blown the doors off two likely NFC playoff teams, but a middling performance against the Arizona Cardinals and a day where he didn’t have to do much to dismantle the Seattle Seahawks keep his number here.
Stroud is shooting toward the top 10 and looks like an absolute star in Houston. Consistency will come later, and he’s got one of the highest ceilings of any young quarterback. And the guy he beat in Week 9, Baker Mayfield, continues to exceed expectations and prove he’s a viable starter in the NFL.
Guys who are capable of more than this
14. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.083 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.078
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.065
17. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.063
18. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.054
Smith’s slide from the top 10 is concerning for the Seahawks, but he’s got space to right the ship. Burrow was ranked 33rd here a month and a half ago, so to get to the middle is pretty encouraging. Howell is exceeding expectations but Lawrence is not. If I had to guess, I’d figure those two will flip trajectories in the second half of the season.
Untrustable
19. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.049 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts: 0.045
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.043
22. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Bears: 0.042
23. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.041
24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.038
Love jumped up seven spaces by beating an undermanned Rams team — seems suspect. Fields is not at risk of having his spot stolen by Tyson Bagent, no matter what the angriest callers in midwestern talk radio suggest. Tannehill has been scooped, however; replacement Will Levis has a 0.125 composite number in his two starts for the Titans.
Literally replaceable
25. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.029 EPA+CPOE composite
26. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.027
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.026
28. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.026
29. Joshua Dobbs, Arizona Cardinals/Minnesota Vikings: 0.023
The Panthers are hoping Young can rise above this muck, but it’s going to be wildly difficult given his blocking. Dobbs’ comeback win was inspirational in his first appearance with the Vikings, but his 2023 suggests it’s not sustainable. Ridder, Garoppolo and Jones have all been pulled from the starting lineup (Dobbs was too), and only Jones can chalk his absence up to injury.
Bad at football
30. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.013 EPA+CPOE composite
31. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.013
32. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.009
Jones escaped the gravity of the bottom tier for one week, then last to the Commanders at home to wind up right back here. Pickett’s fourth quarter composite number is 0.165, second-best in the NFL behind Josh Allen. Just imagine how bad that makes him in the first three quarters. Wilson, well, see above.
Kenny Pickett is the NFL's worst starting quarterback for the first 3 quarters of the game, then its second-best in the 4th quarter
i do not understand it, but i love it pic.twitter.com/zMRH9mu4pF
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 7, 2023
