2023 has been an awful year for NFL quarterbacks.
Injuries have taken out a wide swath of established starters, keeping stars like Aaron Roders, Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins on the sideline for extended stretches. They’ve stunted the growth of emerging passers like Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson and Kenny Pickett. They’ve forced us to watch entirely too many games featuring Mitch Trubisky or PJ Walker or (loud exhale) Tim Boyle.
That’s created an undercurrent of instability as 2024 looms. Some quarterbacks are firmly entrenched by past play or massive contracts, meaning they’re safe to carry on as starters next fall regardless of how their 2023 ends. Others aren’t quite as lucky. And that’s who we’re talking about today.
This is a breakdown of each NFL team’s quarterback situation. Exactly half the league has a locked-in starter who’ll enter the offseason as his team’s unquestioned No. 1. That leaves 16 teams with situations ranging from “mostly secure” to “entirely unsettled.”
Let’s break down each starting quarterback and where their job security sits for 2024. I’ve broken those 32 passers down into six tiers, ranked by overall safety. We’ll start with the guys who aren’t going anywhere — and take an increasingly in-depth look at the NFL’s most interesting QB situations from there.
1
Safe, no matter what (even if they aren't necessarily great)
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
- Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
- Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
- CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
- Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
- Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
The quarterbacks in this section have nothing to worry about. In some cases, they’ve played exceptional football. In others — Deshaun Watson, the 2022 version of Russell Wilson that occasionally shows up in Denver — they’re insulated by expensive contract extensions that leave their teams without the resources for replacement. If your guy is in this tier, congrats. The only thing you’ve got to worry about next season is injury.
(looks at the 2023 season)
Oof, right.
2
Rookies with too much invested in them to move on
- Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
- Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Young and Richardson are both top four draft picks whose rookie campaigns didn’t go as planned. Richardson showed a penchant for flinging himself into danger and ended up on injured reserve after four games — two of which he completed. Young has been stuck behind a horrible offensive line and saddled with arguably the league’s worst receiving corps, leading to predictably gross results.
Giving up on either after one disappointing season would be foolish. 2024 will be all about building around them.
3
Likely safe, but you've got to ask
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray wasn’t given much to work with after returning from a torn ACL in 2023. Arizona’s looming top five draft pick could serve to restock his offense. Or it could be used to draft his replacement — though with $81 million still owed to him thanks to a 2022 extension, that’s unlikely.
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff has been a revelation at times for the Lions but the guy Sean McVay was sick of in Los Angeles in others. He’s almost certainly the best the Lions can get at the position and has endeared himself to fans eager to root for a redemption story. But moving on from the 29-year-old in 2024 would save nearly $27 million on the salary cap and he’s a free agent in 2025.
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
There’s no financial benefit to moving on from Stafford. There’s unlikely to be anyone better for the Rams on the open market (even though the team has a decent chunk of cap space for 2024). The only reason Stafford hits this tier is because he’s 35 years old, has made a ton of money, won a Super Bowl ring and takes a ton of abuse each season. He appears to revel in that last point, but with his play declining we have to at least humor the idea of retirement.
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
It’s extremely difficult to understand just what Love is at the NFL level. Over the first three games of the season he was flawed, but capable of meaningful improvement in crunch time. In the six games that followed he was only the former. Then he unlocked a new gear, dialed up his downfield accuracy and looked like a franchise quarterback in a three-game losing streak … just to revert to his unpredictable, inefficient self in a loss to the New York Giants.
His 2023 contract extension will keep him in Green Bay for 2024. The Packers still have work to do when it comes to parsing whether or not he’s their guy. They know he’s capable of dizzying highs — but also that he’s prone to frustrating regression that threatens his future as an upper echelon QB.
- Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Carr has been a replacement level quarterback as he constantly battles minor injuries in his first season as a Saint. That’s been good enough to push New Orleans out of draft position to select an impact, day one starter next spring. He’s also due an unmovable $35.7 million in 2024, so he’s going to be on the roster no matter what — though another year of getting the tar beaten out of him could open the door for a new starter.
- Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Smith’s contract extension enables the team to move on from him at a relatively affordable cost of $8.7 million in dead cap space. That, coupled with a 2023 that’s failed to live up to his 2022, provide reasoning for Pete Carroll to begin crafting an exit strategy. It probably won’t come this early, but if extraordinary opportunity arises, the Seahawks would consider it.
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants
This isn’t a reflection on Jones’ play. It’s a reflection on the fact he’s due $47 million next season and, thus, immoveable. That should insulate him for another year to prove he can be a franchise quarterback — and another year for the Giants to provide him with the blocking and receiving talent who could maximize his potential.
There is, incredibly, a Tommy DeVito aspect to all this. The undrafted rookie who started the season on the practice squad is 3-1 as a starter — notable, since Jones’ contract extension was based more on team wins than any specific above-average quarterbacking trait. He’s not throwing for many yards but his running ability has him operating Jones’ playbook with efficiency. He’s probably not the answer, but he’s evidence you can plug and play a wide array of QBs into Brian Daboll’s lineup and get reasonable results.
4
The 2024 offseason's most interesting quarterback
- Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings seemed destined to move on from Cousins after five seasons once his fully guaranteed contract extension ran out in 2024. Then the veteran responded with the best football of his career, albeit in a 4-4 start marred by horrible turnover luck. His season was cut short by an Achilles tear which, combined with the fact he turns 36 years old next August, complicates his value.
But several teams could use Cousins’ services, not least of which is the Minnesota team that’s suffered through ups and downs without him. Would a three-year deal worth something like $120 million keep him in the Twin Cities? Or would he opt for the open market, especially after seeing what Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo got last season despite less impressive resumes? Cousins’ destination may dictate how the 2024 offseason unfolds, which makes the league’s most milquetoast quarterback its most interesting free agent.
5
They might save their jobs if they rally to finish 2023
- Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Fields in Weeks 1-6: 91.6 passer rating, 40 rushing yards per game, -0.054 expected points added (EPA) per play and a 1-5 record. Fields in Weeks 11-14: 92.1 passer rating, 72 rushing yards per game, 0.072 EPA/play and a 2-1 record.
The Bears could claim the second guy there as a franchise quarterback. The first guy would be moving on to greener pastures. If the third-year quarterback can continue to live up to his potential, he’ll either boost his trade stock or give Chicago a tough decision with the first overall pick the Carolina Panthers are almost certain to send north.
- Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Howell’s ability to spray good and bad performances across his game log makes it feel as though he’s working on a Jackson Pollack-inspired career. In reality, he’s just a wildly unstable passer capable of impressive highs and the baritone lows you’d expect from a second-year fifth-round draft pick.
Things have been bleak over his last three games (all Washington losses): one touchdown against five interceptions, a 64.1 passer rating and a -0.118 EPA/play that ranks 27th best out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. Those highs may buy him another year as QB1, but what will almost certainly be a new head coaching staff may opt to bring in its own passer to press him for snaps.
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
The only good thing about Pickett’s late-season injury is that it’s showing Steelers fans how much worse things could be. Pickett’s game is flawed and his lack of accuracy and inability to quickly cycle through reads is a bonafide problem. But he’ll occasionally stare down wideouts and deliver a perfect, un-defendable back shoulder strike in a clutch moment anyway to provide the difference between victory and defeat.
He’s done that enough to make drafting his replacement difficult — but if a proven veteran starter is available this offseason, Pittsburgh would be interested. Especially if it provides the cover to move on from Mitch Trubisky’s modest-but-frustrating contract.
- Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is almost certainly done with pending free agent Ryan Tannehill, leaving Levis the inside track for the starting job. He has impressed in flashes in his 2023 audition, but as a whole the rookie has been an underwhelming presence for a team short on playmakers. He deserves the opportunity to try his luck with an offense that has more to offer than just DeAndre Hopkins and a bunch of also-rans in the passing game. There’s no guarantee he’ll get it.
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield went from 2022’s worst starting quarterback to the center of the NFC South leader’s offense. He’s also propped himself up by chucking the ball up to Mike Evans and hoping for the best which, honestly, is a pretty great idea.
Tampa Bay’s been too good to draft a surefire prospect and only has decent, not great, salary cap space for 2024. The most likely solution would be a modest multi-year deal for Mayfield to see if he can reclaim or build on this magic next fall — with an out built in to insulate the team from rostering him in 2025 should he revert back into a pumpkin.
- Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Ridder’s already been benched once this season for Taylor Heinicke, which isn’t exactly a vote of confidence. But on the field he’s shown flashes of efficient play, albeit often unraveled with poor pocket awareness and horribly timed turnovers. If he can give the Falcons four games of steady production he could lead Atlanta to an NFC South title — and install himself as the team’s starter for the beginning of 2024, at the very least.
6
Donezo
- Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Jones was supposed to reclaim, well, not the glory of his rookie season (there was none) but at least the useful efficiency of his NFL debut thanks to the hiring of Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. Instead he was as bad as he’s ever been and was eventually replaced by Bailey Zappe, a player Bill Belichick placed on waivers at the beginning of the year. He’s under contract through 2024, which will make him a modest backup option to whomever the Pats draft next spring.
- Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
O’Connell probably isn’t the answer, but the fact he remains entrenched as starter is a statement that a) the Raiders view this as a lost season and are being smart in assessing what they’ve got at quarterback and b) they’re pretty certain the future will not be Jimmy Garoppolo.
Whomever takes over the full time coaching job in 2024 will inherit both quarterbacks, but neither will be a selling point. A fresh start in Las Vegas almost certainly includes a new quarterback — whether that’s a veteran or a rookie has yet to be seen.
