Last week, I leaned on more unders than usual in what promised to be a grinding weekend of football. It paid off; my official plays went 5-0 and we finished the regular season with a bananas 83-40 record.
Now comes the tricky part; extending that profitability into the postseason. The playoffs are where defenses tend to clamp shut and playbooks are sorted by risk. Expecting conservative totals makes sense. Instead, after looking at the matchups, 40 percent of this week’s plays are counting on tailbacks to do damage on screen passes and wheel routes out of the backfield.
Wild Card weekend features tempting totals when it comes to receiving yards — notably for capable runners like Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler. That’s where our cash lands to kick off the postseason. Here’s what I’ve got to get us started on the road to the Super Bowl. Official plays, as always, are in bold.
Daniel Jones UNDER 241.5 passing yards. Jones’ 334-yard performance against Minnesota in Week 16 has inflated this number significantly; he’s only thrown for more than 228 yards twice this season. While he may have to play from behind late, expect Brian Daboll to lean on his run game and try to win the time of possession battle in order to limit the damage the Vikings’ offense can do.
That means fewer throws (but likely plenty of runs) for the soon-to-be free agent. Pair this up with UNDER 1.5 touchdown passes — a total he’s only gone over four times in 2022 — at a reasonable -135.
Austin Ekeler UNDER 52.5 rushing yards. The Jaguars’ run defense is significantly better than its secondary (11th in run defense DVOA vs. 30th in pass defense). Ekeler averaged 1.25 yards per carry the last time he saw Jacksonville, which was a while ago but still notable. Expect him to have a larger role in the passing game than on the ground, barring any big LA leads in the second half.
Austin Ekeler OVER 36.5 receiving yards. He averages 42.5 per game and the Jaguars have given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing tailbacks (48 per game) in the NFL.
Joe Mixon OVER 25.5 receiving yards. Mixon has had 30-plus in seven of his last eight games. Baltimore has given up the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs — including 41 to Mixon last week. Am I about to learn a lesson about quarterbacks checking down to their running backs in the postseason? Possibly!
JK Dobbins OVER 60.5 rushing yards. Baltimore rested Dobbins in Week 18 in order to focus on this rematch. He’s averaged 14 carries and a shade under seven yards per handoff since returning from injury in Week 14. Given the Ravens’ quarterback uncertainty and lack of viable wideouts, he’ll likely play a pivotal role in his offense once again.
Last week: 5-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 83-40 (.675)
My official leans (not plays) for Wild Card weekend
Here are the bets I like, then talked myself out of for various reasons. They haven’t been as solid as they were early in the season when they were cashing at a ridiculous rate, but they’re still useful if you’re feeling it.
- Geno Smith OVER 230.5 passing yards. Smith has hit this number in six of the Seahawks’ eight losses. The opening game of Wild Card weekend looks like it’ll be the team’s ninth. But the Niners have a smothering defense and Smith has regressed through the back half of 2022, so this goes into the lean pile.
- Tony Pollard UNDER 48.5 rushing yards. Pollard has faded down the stretch thanks to nagging injuries and a career-high number of touches. Now he gets a tough Tampa front to deal with. But he’s also explosive enough to his this total on a single handoff, which is a concern.
- Mike Evans OVER 64.5 receiving yards. Evans is a bit of a boom-or-bust wideout when it comes to receiving totals. Fortunately, he’s up against a Dallas defense that gives up a ton of yards against opposing receivers (156 per game, fourth-worst in the NFL).
- Evan Engram OVER 41.5 receiving yards. Engram’s biggest asset as a tight end is his run-after-catch ability (6.4 YAC in 2022, his highest number since 2018). The Chargers give up nearly 14 yards per catch to opposing tight ends — second-worst in the NFL. But also, he’s Evan Engram, which means asking for reliability or consistency is a stretch.
Last week: 2-1 (.667)
Season to date: 42-17 (.712)
