Running back overs crushed in Week 7. Unders were the call, aside from Travis Etienne and Derrick Henry, in Week 8. This week I’m … mostly avoiding running backs thanks to a bunch of totals that all seem pretty reasonable.
There’s only one rushing yard total prop in Week 9’s official plays and it’s one that could blow up in my face since I’m counting on the Carolina Panthers for competence. Otherwise this week’s official plays rely heavily on passing offenses taking over. Let’s take a look at the wideouts I like as I attempt to keep a completely unsustainable winning percentage afloat for another week.
Sam Ehlinger UNDER 203.5 passing yards. Ehlinger strung together some limited game tape and wasn’t bad in his starting debut against the Washington Commanders last week. Now he has to face Bill Belichick, who delights in nothing more than torturing an inexperienced passer. The Colts would much rather test a gashable Patriots’ run defense than lean heavily on the 2021 sixth-round pick, though they may not have an option if New England jumps out to an early lead.
Kyler Murray OVER 259.5 passing yards. Murray’s only hit this number once in his last five games, but he’s only had DeAndre Hopkins in his last two. With Hopkins in the lineup he’s averaged 7.26 yards per attempt. Apply that to the 37 passes he threw the last time he saw the Seahawks and you’ve got a 268 yard baseline. Pair this up with DeAndre Hopkins OVER 79.5 receiving yards if you’re feeling it, because those two go hand in hand.
Joe Mixon UNDER 66.5 rushing yards. In the haste to fade the Carolina Panthers — completely understandable, by the way — this line pumps up a running back in the midst of his worst season as a pro. He’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and his 1.0 yards after contact rank 46th among 46 qualified running backs this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ run defense ranks 12th in DVOA while their pass defense clocks in at 32nd.
Darnell Mooney OVER 42.5 receiving yards. Mooney is averaging more than 67 receiving yards per game in his last five starts. The Dolphins are vulnerable to teams with clear-cut WR1s: Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven catches for 69 yards last week, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase each went for 80-plus. Mooney doesn’t command the same kind of respect those guys do, but he’s still the top asset in Chicago’s passing game and should see plenty of targets.
Kyle Pitts OVER 40.5 receiving yards. Arthur Smith saw a team with a deficient pass defense and made sure to feature Pitts early and often; he had a season-high nine targets vs. the Panthers. Now he gets a Chargers team whose 13.7 yards per reception from opposing tight ends is the third-worst mark in the league.
Davante Adams OVER 74.5 receiving yards. Being held without a catch until the fourth quarter cooled off Adams’ totals. But New Orleans was able to cover him effectively with rookie Alontae Taylor. The Jaguars don’t have anyone like that. Adams averaged 106 yards per game in his previous three contests before the Saints slapped the chains on him. He’s in a great spot for a rebound game against Jacksonville’s decent, but not great, passing defense.
Last week: 5-3 (.625)
Season to date: 40-21 (.656)
My official leans (not plays) for Week 9
My absurd luck in the unofficial plays continued last week thanks to fading Najee Harris, Dameon Pierce and (just barely) Raheem Mostert. These picks are currently hitting at an absurd 89 percent rate which is in no way, shape or form sustainable. Looks pretty cool for now, though.
- Zach Wilson UNDER 208.5 passing yards. The Bills have the league’s second-best passing defense and Tre’Davious White might be back in time to haunt the Jets’ quarterback, currently the second-worst starter in the league. But New York will likely be trailing throughout this game and Wilson just threw for 300-plus yards against the Patriots — including 151 yards in the fourth quarter after trailing by 12 points. So, into the “leans” this goes.
- Marcus Mariota UNDER 37.5 rushing yards. The Chargers haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks but have allowed just 67 rushing yards to QBs this season — the lowest total in the league through Week 8.
- Tee Higgins OVER 75.5 receiving yards. That’s a big number, but the Panthers’ pass defense is butt and we’ve already talked about how bad Joe Mixon has been in 2022.
Last week: 4-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 25-3 (.893)
